July 31, 2013
FUNDRAISING DOLLARS SEPARATE POWERHOUSES FROM PYGMIES

ANALYSIS & OPINION BY RUSS STEWART

Politics in general, and political fund-raising in particular, can be analogized to the primeval jungle: There are the herbivores, who nibble and munch, and the carnivores, who attack and devour.

Adjoining this column below is a chart detailing various city, county and state politicians' fund-raising from Jan. 1, 2012, to June 30, 2013, a total of six quarters, with their current amounts of cash on hand. They run the gamut from the voracious red-meat eaters such as Mayor Rahm Emanuel, Illinois House Speaker Mike Madigan, Attorney General Lisa Madigan and Alderman Ed Burke (14th), to such quiescent green-leaf munchers such as Aldermen Scott Waguespack (32nd), Rey Colon (35th), Harry Osterman (48th) and Mary O'Connor (41st) and newly appointed Alderman Deb Mell (33rd).

Legendary California legislative boss Jesse Unruh -- undoubtedly a role model for Mike Madigan -- famously remarked, "Money is the mother's milk of politics." In Illinois, Cook County and Chicago, there are a lot of exhausted milk cows.

Obviously, the more campaign bucks an incumbent raises, the more a challenger must similarly accrue or self-fund. Incumbents can extract cash from special interests who their legislative votes, bills or executive actions have benefited. Challengers must focus on the special interests that the incumbent has antagonized.

At some point, however, "critical mass" is achieved, when the incumbent has amassed so much dough that a challenge becomes impractical, if not impossible. The voluminous dollars become a deterrent. In federal races, the parties can pump in outside money to level the playing field, but in Illinois, where the Democrats dominate every level of government, "pay to play" special interests give to those Democrats who have power, and that money keeps them in power.

Here's an analysis:

Chicago Mayor: Emanuel got only 55 percent of the vote in 2011, despite spending close to $10 million. He's well on track to equaling that sum for his 2015 re-election bid. As of June 30 he had $4,003,058 in cash on hand, and he had raised a stunning $3,191,504 in the past 18 months. In the next year he will surely raise another $3 million, and he will have $8 million to $9 million on hand by Jan. 1, 2015. The election is in February.

Some names have been floated as potential future mayors, including 2011 loser Gery Chico, county Commissioner Bridget Gainer and Sheriff Tom Dart, but none can raise $10 million, and none wants to be crushed by the "Emanuel Machine." The only blip on Emanuel's radar is Cook County Board President Toni Preckwinkle, with $1,036,410 on hand. Preckwinkle will spend most of that in 2014, but she has the ability to raise more bucks than anybody else.

Governor: Even though Lisa Madigan is out of the race, don't expect her fund-raising clip to plummet. Madigan has raised $1,242,978 since Jan. 1, and she has $4,973,899 on hand. She will be re-elected easily, and she likely will have $9 million on hand by 2018, the next governor's election. Incumbent Pat Quinn, after sluggish fund-raising in 2012 ($766,891), had a boffo 2013, raising $1,590,796. He'll need it. Bill Daley is his major foe, and he has $794,338 on hand. Downstaters, black voters and Chicago party regulars are coalescing behind Quinn.

If Quinn is renominated, a Republican could win. Investment banker Bruce Rauner brings a huge advantage to the table: lots of money. In just 6 months, Rauner raised an astounding $2,229,333, self-funding $249,000; his opponents -- Treasurer Dan Rutherford ($1,217,162 raised), Kirk Dillard ($404,995) and 2010 loser Bill Brady ($25,625) -- are eating his dust.

Wealthy self-funding Republicans won the governorship in Florida and Michigan in 2010, and Illinoisans may be so weary of Quinn's vacillation and ineptitude that "Anybody But Quinn" will be elected. The question is: Is Rauner a salable commodity or just an egomaniac? If he is nominated, he will easily spend $15 million.

State Comptroller: Retiring Lieutenant Governor Sheila Simon coveted Madigan's job, but now she is shifting to the comptroller race, where the incumbent is Republican Judy Baar Topinka, a well known commodity and the 2006 loser to Rod Blagojevich for governor, with $805,131 on hand. Simon has $270,222.

Cook County: Preckwinkle was elected in 2010, ousting the reviled Todd Stroger on the promise of being a reformer. She has cut the county budget, has rescinded the Stroger sales tax hike, and has chopped jobs, yet she's also raised $1,401,199 in the past 18 months. Is that because donors love the job she's doing, or is it "pay to play" politics as usual? Nevertheless, with $1,036,410 on hand, Preckwinkle is impregnable in 2014.

In other county races, Dart (with $290,874 on hand), Assessor Joe Berrios ($523,697) and county Clerk David Orr ($285,543), look secure, although Berrios's Shakman problems will prompt a primary challenge, probably from a Chicago alderman such as Bob Fioretti or Scott Waguespack. The real anomaly is county Treasurer Maria Pappas, who has raised a total of $4 since Jan. 1, 2012, and who has just $28,503 on hand. Is she quitting? "She can raise millions in minutes," one Democratic insider said, noting that she is the darling of Chicago's Greek-American community and that her husband has an ownership interest in the Treasure Island grocery chain.

Looking to 2016, Metropolitan Water Reclamation District Commissioner Mike Alvarez is positioning himself to run for clerk of the Circuit Court, against incumbent Dorothy Brown. Alvarez had $58,293 on hand, to $13,256 for Brown. Cook County State's Attorney Anita Alvarez, who is up for re-election in 2016, has only $72,605 on hand.

State legislators: Madigan and Senate President John Cullerton make sure that their labor union allies fund their endangered members or challengers. In 2012 state Senator Dan Kotowski raised $698,832 and state representative candidate Marty Moylan raised $657,075, both winning suburban districts. Toni Berrios, the assessor's daughter, raised $273,042 and barely won her primary.

Other Democratic legislators, in safe districts, are piling up their cash: Lou Lang of Skokie, the champion of the gaming industry, had $1,049,455, John Mulroe had $207,239, John D'Amico had $255,697, Ira Silverstein had $119,862, Rob Martwick had $56,996, Heather Steans had $149,874, and Dan Biss, of the Evanston-Glenview Senate district, had a bounteous $535,868.

Even Mike McAuliffe, the only area Republican, is raking it in. He raised $168,851, far above his previous production.

With that kind of fund-raising, every incumbent is safe.

Aldermen: There are two kinds of aldermen, princes and paupers, and there are two kinds of constituencies, those who donate and those who don't. Burke is the exception, since he is the City Council Finance Committee chairman and his law practice handles zoning and tax appeal work. Brendan Reilly (42nd) raised $770,525, and Ray Suarez, of Berrios's 31st Ward, raised $256,186 and had $1,209,051 on hand. Marge Laurino (39th), with $134,239 on hand, Pat O'Connor (40th), with $123,895, and Ariel Reboyras (30th), with $124,495, did well, while Debra Silverstein (50th), with $87,539, and Mell, with $76,694, posted good numbers.

Then the curb becomes a cliff. An alderman who can't raise more than $100,000 in 18 months and who has less than $50,000 on hand is a defeat waiting to happen. That includes Nick Sposato (36th), with $20,428 on hand, and Tim Cullerton (38th), with $19,126, who will run against each other in 2015, and Ameya Pawar (47th), with $31,818, and Harry Osterman (48th), with $18,472. If they have less than $10,000 on hand, they better start sending out resumes, such as Waguespack (32nd), with $7,734, Mary O'Connor (41st), with $7,674, and John Arena (45th), with $3,337. Definitely on the doomsday list is Rey Colon, (35th), who was knocked off the ballot for committeeman in 2012, who raised an anemic $10,807 in 18 months, and who has $18,357 on hand.

Then there are the Mells. Dick Mell has $76,694 on hand, but Deb Mell raised a paltry $15,628 since Jan. 1, 2012. That won't cut it. Unless she learns to dial for dollars real quick, her tenure will be short.