May 22, 2013
ARENA REJECT TAG OF "ALDERMAN ANOMALY"
ANALYSIS & OPINION BY RUSS STEWART
In Chicago ’s Northwest Side 45th Ward, “cognitive dissonance” reigns supreme. The term describes conflicting and contradictory information and trends – in short, confusion.
Is or is not Alderman John Arena (45th), the winner by a bounteous 30-vote margin in 2011, an anomaly? That means a deviation from the norm. Out of 12,136 ballots cast in the 2011 runoff, Arena got 50.1 percent; in a ward with 31,559 registered voters, Arena’s 6,083 votes were 19.2 percent of the total voter pool.
“I’m the first new style alderman in this ward in 25 years,” said Arena, noting that his predecessor, Pat Levar, had been the plodding pro-Daley, pro-Machine, and pro-status quo alderman from 1987 onward. In effect, like his self-described hero, Barack Obama, Arena ran in 2011 as the proverbial “hope and vigor and change” candidate.
Like Obama, Arena argues, he needs his full term to “turn around” the ward, and he realizes that the 2015 election, just two years away, will be a referendum on his tenure. “I expect to be held accountable,” he said. “And I expect to win.” According to the alderman, his polling shows him with a 60 percent approval rating, and he won the 2012 ward Democratic committeeman’s race with a solid 73.3 percent, in a 5,106 turnout; yet his showing of 3,740 votes was barely 60 percent of his 2011 aldermanic total.
Nevertheless, by every conventional yardstick, Arena should be very, very worried.
First, he has failed to entrench himself, create an aura of inevitability, and discourage 2015 opposition. Of course, for a 30-vote victor, that ain’t easy. Already sniffing the wind and positioning themselves for 2015 are John Garrido, the Chicago police lieutenant whom Arena – thanks largely to over $250,000 in negative mailings and cable TV ads funded by the public sector Service Employees International Union – beat in the 2011 runoff. Garrido is now the 16th District’s second watch commander, a member of the Hitch LSC and Gladstone Park Chamber of Commerce, and maintains a local law practice. He has kept himself visible and his network energized, kept himself distant from the Republicans, and has been busy suing SEIU and Arena for libel.
Rumors are swirling that Garrido won’t run because the $108,000 aldermanic salary would mean a pay cut, and his wife doesn’t relish another campaign. When Garrido ran for Cook County Board president in 2010 as a Republican, he got himself quickly reassigned to a South Side police district; now he’s back to his neighborhood. “I’m keeping my options open,” Garrido said.
A second credible candidate is Beaubien LSC and PTO member Michelle Baert, whose close ties with the IBEW and other trades unions, said her spokesman, “will enable her to raise $100,000.” A big booster is IBEW Local 134 business manager Terry Allen, brother of the former 38th Ward alderman (and now judge) Tom Allen.
“We’re involved in a discovery period,” said the Baert source, with a final decision to be made by the end of July. “She (Baert) is a mother of three, a philanthropist, has worked to help children with disabilities and special needs, and is involved in the community; she has a pro-labor record, opposed (Mayor Rahm Emanuel’s) Infrastructure Trust, and supports the building trades.”
And then are the usual suspects: Pat Levar Jr., the alderman’s son, who has a comfy job with the Chicago Park District; Terry Boyke, Levar’s former top aide, who quit and then got creamed big in the 2007 aldermanic race; Anna Klocek, a Forest Glen realtor, who got six percent in 2011; Marina Fay-Huppert, a food service union official who was Levar’s ill-conceived pick for successor, barely getting 20 percent.
The point is this: A lot of politically ambitious people see Arena as eminently beatable. “I welcome opposition” he said.
Second, the best way to discourage opposition is to become a fundraising tiger. Arena was quick out of the box in 2011. His campaign committee raised $114,340 in the first quarter of 2011, part of the election cycle. But then, despite incumbency and a multitude of local and Loop fundraisers, his take diminished, averaging about $21,000 a quarter – solid numbers but not intimidating. From April 1, 2011 to March 31, 2013, Arena raised $174,190, and had a 3/31 cash-on-hand of $7,619.
Compared to other aldermanic behemoths, like Ed Burke, Dick Mell, Pat O’Connor, and Brendan O’Reilly, that’s a pittance. But compared to his potential 2015 foes, that’s humungous. Garrido had no cash-on-hand, and still carried a debt of $47,699 from the 2011 campaign (payable to him and his father); ex-Alderman Levar’s campaign committee is dormant; Klocek had $1,350 on-hand, with debt of $1,006; and Baert has filed no reports.
Third, there’s the “misery index.” In the 1980 Reagan-Carter presidential debate, Reagan famously asked whether Americawas “better off today than it was four years ago?” Arena was scathingly critical of Levar’s stewardship, citing a plethora of vacant storefronts and businesses. According to one Portage Park observer, a past Arena supporter, Arena’s tenure has “been just more of the same…stagnation, no significant change, no innovation, no business recruitment…he spends all his time promoting himself…he wants a lifetime sinecure, just like Levar,” noting that Arena is now the Democratic committeeman.
Arena forcefully rejects that notion. “We’ve brought a new energy, and set a new tone” for the ward, arguing that he “wants business here,” that he’s an “ambassador,” and that he and his staff seek to “partner” with business and the city to make the 45th Ward “ a destination.” He adds: “Pat (Levar) never figured it out, never tried. Under him, the ward stagnated.” Arena uncorks a litany of “accomplishments”:
Over $1.5 million was spent from the ward’s TIFs, $1.5 million released from his ward discretionary fund (menu), six new restaurants around Six Corners, new senior housing, a Mariano’s on Elston Avenue, a new Chase Bank, a 4901 W. Irving Park development, a National Veterans Art Museum, the landmarking and blocking of the Portage Theater as a church, a Filament Theater Company, the beautification of “numerous” business facades, and a bunch of cultural events – including Arts/Alive45, a renamed Jeff Fest, and a Fringe Fest.
Is the 45th Ward better than it was in 2011? That’s debatable.
Fourth, there is “Emanuel estrangement.” To his credit, Arena has not been a mayoral stooge. He opposed the mayor’s revenue-raising speed camera program, opposed the “wheel tax” hike, and opposed the 2013 budget, opposed cuts in mental health and public health spending, and supported hiring 1,000 – not 500 – new police officers. He also opposed Emanuel’s Terminal 5 O’Hare contract and the Infrastructure Trust. “The ‘trust me’ mentality is not good for Chicago ,” said Arena. “I want accountability” from the mayor. “If I don’t get it, I won’t vote for it.”
The mayor, he said, has an “incredible mind…he’s doing a good job in certain areas.” But, added Arena, we must “evaluate every (Emanuel) proposal.”
Has the SEIU gotten their money’s worth from Arena? They helped elect him. And they’ve expended over $150,000 in attorney fees to defend Garrido’s lawsuit. Emanuel’s comportment during the Chicago Teachers’ Union strike, and his city pension “reforms,” are not sanguinary. Will the public sector unions oppose Emanuel in 2015; and, if so, will they fund aldermen like Arena?
Fifth, there’s expansion of one’s political base. In the 2011 runoff, Arena, from Portage Park , won 33 of 53 ward precincts, almost all in or around Portage Park . The ward also encompassesJefferson Park , Gladstone Park and Forest Glen.
“Six Corners’ cultural events and opposition to Emanuel ‘cut it’ in the south, but have no impact in the north,“ said Arena’s critic. The 45th Ward is sort of like New York City , with Portage Parkresembling liberal and elitist Manhattan , and the rest of the ward being the equivalent of conservative Queens and Staten Island .
Arena, for example, has an “arts liaison,” in addition to an “economic development” staffer, on his payroll. Who is more effective? And how many other wards have an “arts liaison”?
But Arena has used the “social media” to his benefit, emailing every week an online newsletter, and, he said, attending “over 100” functions in the ward since 2011. Outside of Portage Park , Arena has not solidified himself.
Said the Arena critic: “ Inside Portage Park , Arena’s (anti-Emanuel) stance is very popular. But I question whether that resonates elsewhere (in the ward).”
And sixth, there is the ambiance. Gateway Chevrolet is still shuttered. Numerous storefronts along Milwaukee Avenue are empty. The bike store issue still impedes development of Lawrenceeast of Milwaukee . Arena contends that over 650 residents participated in his “menu” survey.
The bottom line: “Activity” may not necessarily be competency. There is no doubt that Arena has been an “active” alderman. But has he been “effective”? If both Garrido and Baert run in 2015, along with the other “suspects,” a runoff is assured. Arena will surely make the runoff, but he has not come anywhere close to insuring his re-election.