November 21, 2012
OBAMA VOTE DOWN BY 560,000; REPUBLICANS "CRATER" IN SPRINGFIELD

ANALYSIS & OPINION BY RUSS STEWART

Call it "cratering." That's an apt description of the current predicament of Republicans in the Illinois General Assembly.

On Nov. 6, partly as a result of a masterful Democratic remap, partly as a result of the statewide Obama sweep, and partly as a result of the $15 million spent by Democratic candidates, campaign committees and political action committees, the Republicans lost 12 legislative seats -- seven in the House and five in the Senate. That puts them beyond inconsequential and irrelevant and approaching invisible.

The media have described the Republican rout as a "bloodbath," and some predict that the party is doomed, but such obituaries are premature. There is some solace for the Republicans.

First, the Democratic sweep was not necessarily a Republican repudiation. It was more like "business as usual." The Democrats hold a monumental 40-19 majority in the Illinois Senate and a 71-47 super majority in the Illinois House, but that's not any great reversal of fortune. After the 2008 election, in which Barack Obama won Illinois by a plurality of 1,388,169 votes, the Democratic majorities were 37-22 and 70-48. So 2012 is like deja vu -- meaning 2008 all over.

As recently as 2004 the Republicans had 27 senators and 53 representatives. As of 2002 they had a 31-28 Senate majority. Between 2006 and 2012 the Republicans lost a net of eight senators and six representatives.

In fact, House Republicans should remember the 1990 crater. In that election, Mike Madigan and the Democrats won a 72-46 super majority. Since 1982 the Democrats have controlled the House for 28 years and the Senate for 20 years.

Second, the Republicans have only themselves to blame. In the 2010 primary for governor, the more conservative candidate, Bill Brady, beat the more moderate -- and arguably more electable -- Kirk Dillard by 193 votes.

Brady is not a crackpot like the Nov. 6 Republican U.S. Senate losers in Missouri and Indiana, but his pro-gun, anti-abortion and anti-gay rights stances repelled just enough voters to enable the inept and enfeebled Governor Pat Quinn to win by 31,834 votes.  The pro-choice, anti-gun Republican Mark Kirk, of whom Dillard is a clone, won the 2010 U.S. Senate race by 59,220 votes.

Had a Republican been governor, he would have vetoed the Democratic remap, the veto would not have been overridden, and either a compromise would have been forged or the remap would have gone to a commission. With Dillard as governor, the Republicans might not have lost 12 legislative seats and four congressional seats.

Also, there's the abdication factor. Of the 177 legislative contests this year -- 118 for the House and 59 for the Senate -- the Republicans did not contest 58. That has two repercussions: (1) Instead of the Democrats spreading their $15 million over 177 seats, or an average of $85,000 per contest, they instead concentrated on 15 to 20 races and spent up to $1 million per race. (2) It gives the Democrats a no-lose floor of about 36 senators and 65 representatives. In 2008 Republicans abdicated in 59 races.

The Republicans have conceded every black- and Hispanic-majority district, almost all of Cook County's suburban districts, Will County and most of the districts in east Lake County. The Republicans also are barely hanging on in DuPage County, once a party bastion.

Third, 2014 will not be 2012, and it may resemble 2010, which was a bounce-back Republican year. In the two chambers there are a total of 111 Democrats and 66 Republicans -- the most lopsided Democratic majority (63 percent) since 1965. Even after the 1990 election there were still 79 Republicans in the legislature.

Yet the Republicans are depending on the Democrats to exhibit the arrogance borne of absolute power and self-destruct. For the past decade the Democrats could pass any measure they pleased, but there were two critical checks: A governor's veto needed 60 percent of each chamber's vote (71 in the House and 36 in the Senate) to be overridden, and in overtime sessions, which occur after the customary June adjournment, no bill passes without 60 percent of the vote.

No longer. House Speaker Mike Madigan has his 71 Democrats and Senate President John Cullerton has his 40 Democrats -- four more than he needs. In effect, Quinn is a political eunuch. In the past Springfield was run by the "Five Tops": The House speaker, the Senate president, the two minority leaders and the governor. They negotiated, brokered and enforced all the deals. The other 173 legislators (especially Democrats) voted as they were told (or occasionally were allowed to vote otherwise), and enough Republicans were muscled to pass necessary bills.

Now it's the "Two Tops" -- Madigan and Cullerton. The state is almost $200 billion in debt, including $96 billion in unfunded pension obligations, and there are $8 billion in overdue bills. The $6.75 billion in pensions paid in fiscal year 2013 have devoured all the revenue from the income tax hike. Quinn wants to borrow $8.75 billion to pay current debts, repayable over the next 14 years. The state is on the brink: It must increase taxes, cut spending, or borrow more. Those are the choices.

However, for Madigan and Cullerton there is no sense of urgency. Like that character from Mad Magazine: "What, me worry?" Make no mistake: The priority of the "Two Tops" during 2013-14 is self-preservation, not problem-solving. Their goal is to keep their majorities, which means raising $10 million from special interests and delaying politically dangerous tax-hike and spending-cut votes or ascribing the blame to someone else (like Quinn). It will be remembered that Madigan refused to pass any tax hike unless some Republicans "signed on," which made it a bipartisan tax increase. He can't use that excuse now.

But Illinoisans are notoriously averse to the "Blame Game." When Rod Blagojevich was impeached, voter outrage was nonexistent. Blame the Democrats for foisting him on Illinois? Not a chance. Corruption in Springfield? When Democratic state Representative Derrick Smith was indicted for alleged bribe taking and expelled from the legislature, were his constituents appalled? Not at all. He was re-elected. When Quinn and the Democrats passed an income tax hike, voter outrage was nonexistent. So what? The Republicans can only groan in amazement. After Republican Governor Dick Ogilvie strong-armed the Republican legislature to enact a state income tax in 1969, the Democrats rode a wave of anger and won the General Assembly in 1970 and ousted Ogilvie in 1972.

Mitt Romney's notorious "47 percent" comment is applicable to Illinois. A huge swath of the Democrats' core constituencies, not just minorities, are dependent upon government programs, subsidies and payments. They don't want to reduce taxes, and they are not hostile to borrowing. They just want their money -- now. And upscale Democrats, many of whom vote on social issues, don't mind (or can avoid) paying higher taxes.

Going into 2014, Cullerton has a built-in firewall: Only 19 of the 59 senators' terms expire that year, of which 12 are Democrats. Because the legislative districts must be redrawn every decade following the census, senators' terms are staggered: One-third have terms of 4 years, 4 years and 2 years, another third are 4-2-4, and a the rest are 2-4-4. That means that 19 senators are up for election in 2014, while 38 are up in both 2016 and 2018 and 19 are up in 2020. That also means that the Democrats can't lose the Senate in 2014, and probably not thereafter.

The only vulnerable Democrats for 2014 are 2012 winners Mike Jacobs of the Rock Island/Moline area (who won with 54.7 percent of the vote) and Andy Manar of Decatur, Cullerton's former chief of staff (who got 55.3 percent of the vote), and maybe Terry Link of Lake County.

In 2010 the Republicans gained two Senate seats and six House seats.

Fourth: It is not true that the Democrats had a "better message." State Senator Ira Silverstein (D-8) explained that the deluge of 2012 television ads was as intense Downstate as it was in Cook County -- only the focus was on legislative candidates. In the Chicago media market, the negative ads of congressional candidates (Walsh, Duckworth, Dold, Foster, etc,) predominated. Silverstein said that Downstate, where TV ad time is cheap, the Republicans blasted the Democrats as tax hikers and the Democrats attacked the Republicans for cutting state and federal programs. "Voters just tuned out," he said. There was no message.

Fifth, the 2012 Obama vote, not the so-called "Obama landslide," did trickle down to legislative races. Obama's Illinois vote declined noticeably. Obama beat John McCain in 2008 3,479,348-2,031,170, getting 63.1 percent of the vote in a turnout of 5.6 million, a margin of 1,388,169 votes. In 2012, according to unofficial tabulations, Obama won 2,916,811-2,090,116, getting 58.3 percent of the vote in a turnout of 5.1 million, a margin of 826,695 votes.

Obama's vote was down by roughly 560,000 votes, while Romney only equaled the dismal McCain vote and underperformed George Bush's 2004 showing by 250,000 votes. The Democrats in Illinois are not ascendant, the Republicans are just absent.

If the Republicans couldn't beat a flawed governor and president, their brand is toxic. More than 500,000 2008 Obama voters refused to back Romney, and pro-Obama voters backed every Democrat on the ballot. Voting Republican is no longer an alternative to Democratic failure.

Obama's vote declined from 228,698 in 2008 to 197,411 in 2012 in DuPage County, from 177,242 to 151,552 in Lake County, from 192,659 to 127,522 in Will County, from 72,288 to 59,691 in McHenry County, and from 1,629,024 to 1,417,269 in Cook County. Downstate, which McCain lost by 75,067 votes, Romney won by 136,363 votes.

But hope springs eternal for the Republicans. Maybe Quinn will be on the ballot in 2014.