October 10, 2012
WALSH VS. DUCKWORTH IS PABLUM AND POLEMICS
ANALYSIS & OPINION BY RUSS STEWART
If Wisconsin is "America's Dairyland," the northwest suburban 8th U.S. House District is Illinois' equivalent. Both candidates are milking the area for every available vote, and if voters were cows, they'd have long since ceased producing milk.
Incumbent Republican Joe Walsh is opinionated and obnoxious, while Democratic challenger Tammy Duckworth is vague and vacillating.
Walsh is seeking a second term based on his strident anti-Obama, anti-"Obamacare" rhetoric and Tea Party-pleasing record. He and outside groups and Super PACs will raise and spend $5 million. His strategy is to conduct an intensive micro-campaign, holding town hall meetings where anybody can ask questions and building a sizable network of fervent door knockers. He expects to win because of his on-the-ground operation.
Duckworth, a "princess" among state Democrats and a protege of U.S. Senator Dick Durbin and Mayor Rahm Emanuel, is relying on her compelling personal narrative as a war hero and an amputee. Her campaign never mentions her federal job in the Obama Administration or her state job in the Blagojevich Administration. Her strategy is to conduct a macro-campaign, relying almost solely on media advertising and rarely making public appearances. She expects to win because of her on-the-air presence and her relentlessly negative anti-Walsh broadsides. She, too, will spend $5 million.
Walsh is much beloved by his Tea Party acolytes, who find his candor refreshing and excuse an occasional foot in the mouth. Walsh caught media heat when he chided Duckworth for focusing on her background, not her issue positions, when he defended Missouri's Todd Akin, when he said that another 9/11 threat is posed by "homegrown jihadist terrorists and Islamic extremists," and when he introduced a bill requiring a government-issued photo identification card to vote in federal elections.
Duckworth is much beloved by Durbin, Emanuel and other party insiders, who view her as the perfect politician: a female veteran and hero who never has to explain what she says because what she says is ever so pleasing, even if it is perfect drivel. If Duckworth wins, expect her to be a formidable contender for Durbin's Senate seat should he retire in 2014.
Duckworth's 2012 template is Durbin's 1996 campaign, which was a masterpiece in opposition demonization. In that contest, the then-obscure Durbin spent $4.9 million, postured as a Paul Simon-like moderate, and excoriated his Republican foe, Al Salvi, as an extremist who opposed gun control, abortion rights and the assault weapons ban. Durbin won by 655,204 votes, with 56 percent of the vote.
In 2005 Emanuel, then chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, recruited Duckworth, twisted arms, and got her nominated for the DuPage County-based 6th U.S. House District seat being vacated by Republican Henry Hyde. Duckworth's foe was Peter Roskam, a local state legislator. With her mentors' aid, she raised $4.5 million, dumped most of it into the media, and proceeded to demonize Roskam as a "rubber stamp" for the Bush Administration (even though he was then serving in Springfield). Her ads ripped Roskam for his stances on immigration, tax cuts, the Iraq War and earmarks, and in one memorable tag line she claimed that while Roskam, who had once worked as an intern for Tom DeLay, was "climbing up the political ladder, using his connections to disgraced politicians," Duckworth was "climbing into helicopters and serving her country."
Despite a hugely anti-Republican environment, the vapid and nasty Duckworth campaign distinguished itself by losing a race that was thought to be in the bag. Roskam won by 4,810 votes. Disinclined to squander a $4.5 million investment, Duckworth was quickly bundled off to Springfield to be the director of the Illinois Department of Veterans Affairs, and after Obama was elected in 2008, to Washington to be the assistant secretary for public and intergovernmental affairs in the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs -- thereby maintaining her political shelf life.
In 2011, at Durbin's urging, Illinois House Speaker Mike Madigan dusted off Duckworth and created a spanking new west suburban congressional district for her that was crammed with Democrats and Hispanics and which gave Obama 62 percent of the vote in 2008. Her Hoffman Estates home is just inside the district. It includes 54 percent of the old 6th District, carefully absorbing those areas where she beat Roskam, such as Addison, Itasca, Wood Dale and Bensenville; it takes in just 27 percent of the old 8th District, where Walsh won by just 290 votes in 2010, including South Barrington, Carpentersville and Barrington Hills.
"It was designed to elect a Democrat, but Joe is the kind of guy who stirs passions, and he's getting much better known," observed one Washington Republican political operative close to the Walsh campaign. "I'd estimate that 40 percent (of the district's voters) love Joe, 40 percent hate him, and the remainder is in play."
A recent We Ask America poll confirms that assessment. An Oct. 1 survey had Duckworth leading Walsh by 50-44 percent, with 6 percent undecided; in the presidential race, Obama led Romney 51-41. As for party affiliation, it was 34 percent Republican, 32 percent Democratic and 34 percent independent. Several conclusions can be drawn. First, Duckworth is the better known candidate, has been on television negatively defining Walsh for months, and is still only at 50 percent. Second, the Obama-Duckworth vote appears to be conjoined; the president is obviously not pulling the 62 percent of the vote he got in 2008. To win, Duckworth needs a 55-45 percent Obama victory. Third, independents appear to be breaking 2-1 for Duckworth.
Is the congressional race over? Hardly. It's beginning anew. If Walsh were down 60-40, the Republican Congressional Campaign Committee ($457,000), Freedom Works and the Now or Never Super PAC ($1.3 million) would put their funds elsewhere. Obviously, they've concluded that the seat is winnable, and they have bought television time. They have rejected as counterproductive either tying Duckworth to Obama or attacking her personally, and she is not an incumbent with a voting record. So expect this: Duckworth has said that "America is better off today than 4 years ago." Walsh's negative ads will hammer her as a "career politician" who is "out of touch" with her constituents. Walsh's positive ads will emphasize his many dissents from the Republican majority and will tab him an independent, hoping to peel off some of the pro-Obama independents.
Duckworth's campaign has been a replication of 2006. Walsh is an "extremist," charges Duckworth, whose ads trumpet that he will "repeal Medicare's drug benefit, replace Medicare's guarantee with vouchers, and raise taxes on the middle class." Other ads hype the proposition that she will "go the extra mile" while "standing up for working families" and that she will "give everyone a shot at the American dream" while being a "bipartisan" congresswoman. How nice. According to her press aide, Duckworth will "protect Medicare, protect student loans, listen to people, and be an independent person in Washington." It gets better. Adds the aide: "She agrees with President Obama a lot, but also disagrees." That's a relief.
Asked for some specific issues on which Duckworth differs from Obama, the aide asked for questions to be sent in an e-mail, but he did not respond to the questions.
The Daily Herald was specific. In a recent article, it labeled Duckworth a "tax cheat," accusing her of taking a home owner's property tax exemption on her Hoffman Estates home and her DeKalb County rental property, claiming both as her primary residence. "It was an oversight, an error," Duckworth's aide said. "She made it right. She paid back the taxes."
It will be recalled that Walsh was the subject of recurring headlines during 2011 when his former wife sought child support arrearages. The headlines labeled him a "deadbeat congressman." The case has been settled.
There is no ambiguity about Walsh's philosophy and goals. Unlike Duckworth, Walsh wants to repeal "Obamacare." He opposes raising the $16 trillion national debt ceiling, he supports Paul Ryan's Medicare reforms, he backs charter schools and he supports the military, although he has voted against funding for America's current wars.
Unlike Duckworth, Walsh is not a "career politician." He has limited himself to three terms. His penchant for controversy stands in stark contrast to Duckworth's incessant trimming and obsessive noncommitment.
The outlook: As in 2010, Walsh is attempting to nationalize the contest, to position himself as a battler against Washington incompetence and creeping socialism. Duckworth is trying to localize the race, avoid any connection with Obama, and hope people will vote for that pleasant helicopter pilot hero.
There are 193 8th District precincts in Cook County, primarily in Schaumburg, Hanover and Elk Grove townships. That's Duckworth's base. There are 182 precincts in DuPage County, with the mostly white townships of Bloomingdale and York being solidly Republican but offset by Hispanics in Addison Township. There are 55 precincts in Kane County, in Walsh's old district. Turnout will be in the realm of 280,000.
My prediction: The 8th District is filled with working class and middle management voters. Tying Walsh to the Tea Party is not fatal. Duckworth's lethargy and complacency is Walsh's greatest asset. Duckworth should win by 15,000 votes, but Walsh cannot yet be counted out.