August 29, 2012
"HARDENING OF ARTERIES" SPURS IL HOUSE EXODUS
There is a three-tiered hierarchy in the Illinois House: Speaker Mike Madigan, the Queen Bee who has ruled for 30 years; the three perpetual political "bridesmaids" -- Barbara Flynn Carrie, Lou Lang, and Tom Cross, all of whom lust to be Madigan's successor as speaker; and 114 "dwarfs" -- meaning state reps who have no power and (of the 61 Democrats) take orders from the Queen Bee. Think of a Springfield without Mike Madigan. It could happen in 2012. Democrats hold a 64-54 majority. At least six Democratic seats are in jeopardy, contested with three Republican seats. A 59-59 tie in 2012? it could happen.Full Article...
August 22, 2012
OBAMA "UNDERTOW" JEOPARDIZES DEMOCRATS' IL SENATE MAJORITY
With a huge assist from Barack Obama and Pat Quinn, underdog Republicans have an increasingly -- and incredibly -- viable chance to narrow the Democrats' 35-24 Illinois Senate majority, and perhaps even make John Cullerton's minions a minority. Polling shows both Obama and Quinn to be pariahs Downstate. Seven Democratic senators -- Forby, Haine, Frerichs, Koehler, Jacobs, Kotowski and Sullivan -- may drown in the upcoming Obama undertow. All but Kotowski are Downstaters, and Romney-Ryan is going to swamp the president Downstate. Here's an analysis of key races.Full Article...
August 15, 2012
VICE-PRESIDENT PICKS ARE RARELY "GAME-CHANGERS"
Paul Ryan's addition to the 2012 Romney will be a "game-changer" insofar as the campaign's dialogue is concerned. The race is now a choice, not a referendum on Obama -- which Romney was losing. A veep pick reflects certain urgencies: geographic, generational or ideological balance; imagery, party unity, inoffensiveness, barter, showcasing, trailblazing, attack dog, gravitas and/or place-filler. Here's an analysis of the dynamics of the VP selections in key elections spanning 1900 to 2008, with particular emphasis on 1900, 1932, 1944, 1952, 1960, 1980, 1984, 1992, 2000 and 2008.Full Article...
August 8, 2012
MONEY-RAISERS ARE OPPOSITION - BREAKERS
It was "you can't beat somebody with nobody." Now it's "you can't beat somebody with lots of money unless you've got more." Rahm Emanuel spent $14.5 million in 2011; Rich Daley spent $6.8 million in 2007. Lisa Madigan has $3.3 million on hand, and Ed Burke $7.1 million. A lot of local politicians have under $25,000. Here's an analysis of money in politics; also attached following the article is a FUNDRAISING CHART detailing money raised and cash-on-hand for various politicians.Full Article...
August 1, 2012
NO "WIN-WIN" SITUATION FOR EITHER PARTY IN 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
Barack Obama is leading Mitt Romney in the polls, but he is mired in the 45-48% range in the "battleground" states. He has yet to crack 50%. That's a dire predicament. An incumbent president should be up 52-54% at this point. Whoever triumphs, it won't be a win-win situation. There are 3 outcomes: Obama wins, Republican House, Democratic Senate, total gridlock; Obama wins, Republican Congress, total polarization and blame-pointing; or Romney wins, Republican Congress, entitlement reforms, all hell breaks loose.Full Article...
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