May 2, 2012
"RABBIT RAHM" CRAFTS "TRUST ME" PLOY AND IS RUNNING FOR PRESIDENT

ANALYSIS & OPINION BY RUSS STEWART

In the vernacular of the criminal legal defense community and among bail bondsmen, to "rabbit" is to do the crime but then, after being arrested and posting bond, flee the jurisdiction and not do the jail time.

In the political context, to "rabbit" has the same implication: The incumbent makes a fiscal or ethical mess, then bails by retiring or running for another office, and the successor has to clean up the debris.

You read it here first: "Rahm the Rabbit," meaning Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel, with visions of White House sugarplums dancing in his head, is getting ready to bail, bolt and rabbit, and Chicago's taxpayers will get stuck with a multi-billion dollar tab -- such as the one from his "transformative" $1.7 billion infrastructure improvement plan, which was shoved through the compliant City Council by a 41-7 vote on April 24.

It is often remarked that the three most egregious lies are "The check's in the mail," "I will still respect you" and "Trust Me."

Chicago's new motto, instead of "The City of the Big Shoulders," is now "In Rahm We Trust." Would he lie to us? The city's budget is $6.3 billion. It should be a snap to repay a measly $1.7 billion  . . . by, say, doubling or tripling property taxes, boosting bus fares, slashing teacher pensions and schoolroom amenities, and piling on park district fees. Or, borrowing it or scrounging it from state and/or federal sources. Or all of the above.

The City Council had only three days to review the parking meter lease, but Emanuel graciously gave the council 30 days to dissect his "Chicago Infrastructure Trust," which is about as simple as Einstein's "Theory of Relativity." It's to be run by a "Trust Board" appointed by him, in a number not yet determined, which will have no City Council oversight. It is expected to be funded by seven or eight large financial entities (banks, unions, investment firms), whose profit, rate of return and time frame for "investment" and repayment is yet to be determined. The board will dump the money into projects designated by the mayor. That includes upgrades for streets, bridges and buildings and new equipment. The CTA, the Chicago Public Schools and the Chicago Park District will be obligated to pay the trust for services rendered -- like immediately. The cost of bricks, mortar and wages will be borne by the "investors," who will charge an interest rate in an amount yet to be determined.

Notably, a feeble attempt by five aldermen to require City Council approval of every board deal went nowhere.

More notably, by tossing a bone to the unions, whose tradesmen will perform the labor, Emanuel puts himself in a position to demand hefty union campaign contributions when he runs for re-election as mayor in 2015 and for president in 2016.

"There is absolutely no accountability or transparency," groused Alderman John Arena (45th), who was elected in 2011 largely due to a huge infusion of union funds. Arena has emerged as an anti-Emanuel "rebel," among the seven anti-infrastructure trust votes and opposing the mayor on the speed camera ticketing ordinance.

A contrary view was expressed by Alderman Nick Sposato (36th), a former Chicago firefighter and a strong union booster. The city's infrastructure "is shot," and the $1.7 billion Emanuel plan will create jobs, he said. As for repayment, Sposato acknowledged that the mayor was "vague" but added, "We have to trust him." Sposato was one of the "Emanuel 41."

There is, however, no vagueness about the Emanuel game plan. For the city's South Side Irish and the Bridgeport "Daley Clan," being Chicago's mayor is the epitome of their ambition and epicenter of their life. Emanuel, who served stints in the White House during both the Bill Clinton and Barack Obama administrations, views the mayoralty as a steppingstone, not a capstone. He disdains being mayor for life. He wants to be president, and he quickly needs a "record of accomplishment."

In fact, Emanuel is steeped in the Clintonian philosophy of "triangulation," and he is implementing that stratagem in Chicago. Triangulation has become part of the political lexicon, and it means staking out a "third way" between doctrinaire liberals and implacable conservatives. To either extreme, triangulation is symptomatic of equivocation, opportunism and an utter lack of guiding principles. Gee, doesn't that sound just like Bill Clinton? But Clintonites justify their stance by insisting that practicality, not ideology, solves problems.

Remember this: Emanuel, who served as Obama's chief of staff, was adamantly opposed to the president's "Obamacare" plan, deeming it a political catastrophe. He was right. Emanuel thought that Obama, a fellow Chicagoan, would govern in an opportunistic, Clintonesque fashion, always focused on winning the next election and raising campaign cash. Instead, Obama emerged as a doctrinaire, government-expanding, Nancy Pelosi-type liberal. Obama made a "mess."

Emanuel bailed in mid-2010. When the Chicago mayoralty opened up with Rich Daley's retirement, "Rabbit Rahm" was ready and waiting.

In the Emanuel Administration, triangulation is thriving. The mayor wanted "school reform," including longer days from 5 hours 45 minutes to 7 1/2 hours. The teachers' unions opposed it. They "compromised" - it's now 7 hours. Rahm won. Had a Republican governor proposed that change, the unions would have gone on strike. As for private "charter schools," Emanuel is for them, the unions are against them. The mayor put extreme pressure on Sposato to acquiesce to a United Neighborhood Organization charter school in his ward. Sposato intended to exercise his aldermanic veto -- a historically inviolate prerogative of an alderman to block any ward initiative, which other alderman respect, but Emanuel's people told Sposato: The school goes in, with or without your consent. Sposato capitulated.

At a meeting to discuss the UNO school, teachers union protesters were present en masse, but Hispanic parents were for it. The problem with charter schools, Sposato said, "is that any disruptive or failing child can be dismissed and returns to the public schools." But isn't that the point? Parents pay for private schooling. They invest in their child. They monitor the child's homework and attendance. Failure is not an option.

Privatization will proceed at breakneck pace in Chicago. Refuse collection is now by grids, not wards. Fewer workers man each truck. Since Streets and Sanitation no longer provides precinct workers, why not privatize garbage collection entirely? The refuse companies will provide campaign money. And why not other 411 services? The mayor wants more cops on the streets, and the city's crime rate seems to be falling. "Tough" Rahm takes the credit. There also will be "pension reforms," with the mayor posturing as the savior of tax dollars and city workers squawking. Expect budget cuts galore over the next few years, as the mayor tries to embellish his image as a fiscal conservative.

The mayor's future will crystallize on Nov. 6.

Regardless of whether Obama is re-elected or Mitt Romney is elected, the presumptive 2016 Democratic nominee is Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, age 64, one of Emanuel's mentors during the 1992 presidential campaign and in the White House. He won't challenge her. She has said that she is not running, and that she will not serve as secretary of state if Obama wins a second term. That's wise. It creates some separation. By 2016 the country will be suffering "Obama fatigue" (much like "Bush fatigue" in 2008), and any reasonably presentable Republican will win. But Clinton can play the "gender card," hoping it distracts people from the likely Obama mess.

If Romney wins and the economy doesn't revive, debt keeps growing, gas prices skyrocket, and the Republicans' attempt to reform entitlements (meaning social security and Medicare) create a voter backlash, then any Democrat -- but especially Clinton -- easily wins in 2016. Also, with repeal of "Obamacare" on his agenda, and with at least three U.S. Supreme Court vacancies to fill, Romney has the potential to alienate and energize the country's liberals.

Conversely, if Romney is a reasonably successful president, it will then befall the Democrats' "B-Team" to take the plunge.

Absent Clinton, the 2016 Democratic field will consist of three governors, Andrew Cuomo of New York, age 54, Martin O'Malley of Maryland, age 48, and Deval Patrick of Massachusetts, age 55 -- and Mayor Emanuel, age 52.

All are liberal on social issues. Cuomo and Emanuel are triangulators, with Cuomo outraging liberals and unions with his budget cutting. Patrick and O'Malley are conventional tax-and-spend liberals. O'Malley is the chairman of the Democratic Governors Association, has developed nationwide contacts, and, like Emanuel, is a money-raising machine.

It is estimated that Obama will raise $1 billion during the 2012 campaign and that he will spend $100 million in Florida alone.

To get to the White House, "Rabbit Rahm" has two goals: first, get re-elected with near-unanimity in 2015, and second, have $100 million in campaign commitments by mid-2015. With his contacts in the Clinton network, the Jewish community, the movie industry (where his brother Ari is a producer), and among the Chicago banks, businesses and unions that make tidy profits during his tenure, $100 million is doable.

When Rahm rabbits and Chicagoans get their tax bills, they will surely affix the "Emanuel Era" -- the years 2011 to 2016 -- with five words: "The Mess That Rahm Made."