April 11, 2012
"JUNIOR'S" RENOMINATION BEGINS REHABILITATION

ANALYSIS & OPINION BY RUSS STEWART

Mea culpa is an ancient Latin phrase used by wrongdoers to seek forgiveness for past transgressions, legal or moral. It is roughly translated as "I am to blame" or "The fault is mine."

On March 20, U.S. Representative Jesse Jackson Jr. -- known sarcastically and uncharitably in the black community as "Junior" -- was incontrovertibly "forgiven" by some voters in his black-majority 2nd U.S. House District. More accurately, by 56,130 voters, almost exclusively black, who voted in the 2012 Democratic primary for Jackson over former U.S. representative Debbie Halvorson.

But does "Junior's" nomination portend his political rehabilitation? Will he ever recover enough credibility to run for Chicago mayor or U.S. senator?

Or was the racial card determinative: Was his victory simply a matter of a black candidate beating a white candidate? To boot, a case of a black pro-Obama congressman beating an allegedly anti-Obama white former congresswoman?

Jackson's win certainly ensures his November reelection, in a district with a 54 percent black population. The allegations of Jackson's marital infidelity have been defused, as his wife, Alderman Sandi Jackson (7th), stood by her man. The only impediment is the investigation of the U.S. House Ethics Committee, not yet concluded, into allegations by two Jackson associates that he would have funneled $6 million into Rod Blagojevich's campaign account in exchange for appointment to Barack Obama's U.S. Senate seat in 2008. The U.S. Attorney's Office could still seek an indictment.

"He's weathered the storm," one black South Side politician said of Jackson. "I've never seen Junior so energized. He knew his career was on the line. He campaigned everywhere. He spent money. He was on radio and cable. It (the outcome) was largely based on Junior's superior name identification. He also demonized her, painting her as a closet Republican, and ran as part of the Obama-Jackson team." Jackson got more than 85 percent of the vote in the black-majority wards and townships.

Adds the source: "Junior can now be congressman for life." However, he said that whether Jackson is sufficiently rehabilitated to run for mayor in 2015 or 2019 or for U.S. senator in 2016 depends on whether he is exonerated of the Blagojevich charges.

But here is a salient point: The newly reconfigured 2nd District was designed by Springfield Democrats to comply with the Voting Rights Act and to preserve at least three black-majority congressional districts. Jackson's current district, which was 62 percent black, extends from 71st Street on the South Side through the predominantly black Cook County suburbs east of Interstate 57 to the Cook-Will county line. Obama got 87 percent of the vote in the district in 2008. The new district runs all the way south to Kankakee County, and it includes east Will County and the hamlet of Peotone, which is the site of the proposed new third airport. Roughly one-third of the district is new to Jackson, with about 150,000 white voters added, all from Halvorson's old 11th District.

According to the 2010 census, Illinois' population is 12,830,632, and each of the state's 18 congressional districts contains a population of about 713,000. Turnout in the 2nd District's Democratic primary on March 20 was 78,808, amounting to barely 20 percent of the registered voters. Lest Jackson get a fat head, it should be noted that his vote of 56,130 is 7.8 percent of the district's total population.

Jackson's vote emanated almost entirely from the black areas, and that was almost entirely due to his dual message. First, he demonized Halvorson in radio ads and direct mail as having "voted 88 times with the Republicans and against President Obama" during her single 2009-10 term in Congress. Second, he grandiosely proclaimed that "Congressman Jackson and President Obama worked together to pass the affordable health care act and to create jobs in our district."

That messaging worked superbly, despite the ironic fact that the hapless Halvorson actually lost her seat in 2010 to Republican Adam Kinzinger due to her slavish support for the Obama agenda, including the health care bill, the TARP bank relief program and debt expansion.

In the March Democratic primary, 26,101 votes were cast in the 194 Chicago precincts in the district, which include all or parts of the South Side 5th, 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th and 34th wards east of the Ryan Expressway, all but the 10th Ward being overwhelming black. The 10th Ward is now Hispanic-majority, and it went 2,047-1,430 for Halvorson, indicating that "Junior" has questionable appeal to Hispanic voters, getting just 41.1 percent of the vote in the ward and losing 33 of 46 precincts.

Jackson won overall 20,204-5,897, with 77.4 percent of the vote, even though some black clergymen, like Bishop Larry Trotter of the Sweet Holy Spirit Church, were aiding Halvorson. Jackson got 84.8 percent of the vote in his wife's 7th Ward. He got 79.2 percent of the vote in the Hyde Park 5th Ward, where Toni Preckwinkle is dominant, 85.4 percent in the 8th Ward, where the remnants of the Stroger machine are still in control, 83.2 percent in the 9th Ward, where Alderman Anthony Beale lusts after Jackson's congressional seat, and 79.3 percent in the 34th Ward, which once was the base of former Illinois Senate president Emil Jones, who ran against Jackson in 1995, getting 38.2 percent of the vote in a five-candidate race, with Jackson getting 49.7 percent of the vote.

There are 263 Cook County suburban precincts in the district, which include black-majority suburbs Blue Island, Riverdale, Dixmoor, Calumet City, Phoenix, Hazel Crest, Homewood, Flossmoor, Oak Forest, Olympia Fields, Lansing, Steger, Sauk Village and Park Forest. Added was predominantly white, affluent Tinley Park. Jackson romped there 32,575-11,219, getting 74.4 percent of the vote in a turnout of 42,794. He won Thornton Township 15,067-4,649 (with 76.4 percent of the vote), Rich Township 8,443-2,744 (with 75.4 percent), Bloom Township 5,747-3,032 (with 65.3 percent), Bremen Township 3,194-760 (with 80.7 percent) and Rich Township 124-34 (with 79.4 percent). If Halvorson were to have been a viable candidate, she needed half the vote from this predominantly black, middle class, non-Chicago area, where Jackson's tawdry image should have had an impact.

When Jackson won Cook County by 52,779-17,116, with 75.5 percent of the vote, it was over. Halvorson's Will County base, east of Interstate 57, included Crete, Willowbrook, University Park, Beecher and Frankfort, amounting to 27 precincts. Halvorson won by a paltry 2,757-1,736 (with 61.4 percent of the vote), in a turnout of 4,493. The west half of Will County was placed in the 1st U.S. House District, where the incumbent is another black Chicago Democrat, Bobby Rush, who recently gained fame by wearing a "hoodie" on the House floor to protest the slaying of Trayvon Martin.

Another part of Halvorson's old district, Kankakee County, the largely Republican political base of disgraced former governor George Ryan, had a turnout of 4,420 in the Democratic primary, and Halvorson won 2,805-1,615, getting 63.5 percent of the vote. Bourbonnais, Kankakee, Bradley, Momence and a host of rural towns compose the county, a total of 85 precincts.

In the 2008 election, Halvorson won the Will County/Kankakee County portion of her 11th District by 119,679-67,886 (with 63.8 percent of the vote) over big-spending Republican Marty Ozinga. However, in 2010, against anti-Obama Republican Adam Kinzinger, Halvorson was beaten 78,836-62,951 in those counties. Ironically, Halvorson won in 2008 because of the Obama landslide, was ousted in 2010 because she was too pro-Obama, and failed on March 20 because Jackson portrayed her as anti-Obama.

According to the latest federal financial disclosure reports, Jackson raised $739,537 for the primary, to $157,523 for Halvorson.

Jackson's Republican foe is Olivet Nazarene University professor Brian Woodworth, who got 10,380 votes in the primary. Woodworth is a strenuous foe of the Peotone Airport, and he has ripped Jackson for his planned April 21 "symbolic ground-breaking" designed to "jump start" the project. "Dirt will turn," Jackson promised. Woodworth's anti-airport stance will generate votes south of Interstate 80, but in won't put a dent in Jackson's black base.

Rumors are rife that the ubiquitous Rahm Emanuel, who is busily governing Chicago as if it were the 51st state, is eying a presidential run in 2016 and will seek a second term as mayor in 2015. Emanuel's police and education "reforms," and his expensive and expansive infrastructure plan, are meant to showcase him as a tough administrator. His looming opponents for 2016 are New York Governor Andrew Cuomo and Maryland Governor Martin O'Malley -- and maybe Hillary Clinton. Emanuel won't run if Clinton does.

Should Obama be reelected, voter fatigue with the president and his party will surely put a Republican in the White House. However, if Mitt Romney is elected in 2012 and governs incompetently, a Democrat surely will win in 2016. How about a Cuomo-Emanuel ticket? Or Clinton-Emanuel?

If Emanuel departs Chicago, a special election would be held in 2017, and if Jackson were the sole black candidate, he would make the runoff. Against a flawed white candidate or a controversial Hispanic candidate like Luis Gutierrez, Jackson could win.

The other option is to run for Republican Mark Kirk's U.S. Senate seat in 2016. Having suffered a stroke earlier this year, Kirk is a sympathetic figure, but it is highly unlikely that Kirk will be able to campaign at the strenuous pace needed to entrench himself. If Jackson stakes out his intent to challenge Kirk early, other Democrats may defer, and if 2016 is a big Democratic year, the Emanuel/Jackson team will prevail over the Romney/Kirk duo.

"Junior" is not quite back. But he's no longer political road kill.