April 4, 2012
BERRIOS' "MUSCLE" WINS FOR DEMOCRATIC SLATE

ANALYSIS & OPINION BY RUSS STEWART

Give credit to the embattled and much-maligned Joe Berrios, the Cook County Democratic chairman and powerful assessor. "Big Daddy" deserves a victory lap. In the March 20 primaries, an astounding 87.5 percent -- 21 of 24 -- of the party's slated county candidates emerged victorious. Of that number, eight were uncontested.

Of course, there were mitigating circumstances, such as an extraordinarily anemic turnout. Only 422,816 voted countywide in the Democratic primary. "Change we need" sentiment, as was evident in 2008, when county turnout was 1,091,008, totally dissipated. With a smaller electorate, Democratic committeemen, augmented by union money and manpower, were dominant.

However, in Berrios' Northwest Side, 31st Ward-dominated bailiwick, his daughter, state Representative Toni Berrios, foundered and almost lost to a "reform" candidate. As "Big Daddy" is cementing his power base throughout the county, it is quite rapidly eroding at home.

Significantly, Berrios, who is of Puerto Rican heritage, swung the party apparatus behind a black candidate, Circuit Court Clerk Dorothy Brown, who soundly defeated South Side Alderman Rick Munoz, who is of Mexican heritage. Brown won 30 of the 50 Chicago wards and carried Chicago by 165,852-73,939 (with 69.1 percent of the vote) and the suburbs by 101,399-55,420 (with 64.6 percent).  Munoz won 10 of the 11 Hispanic-majority wards and townships. "Joe proved that he is a party chairman who happens to be Hispanic, not the Hispanic party chairman," said one Democratic Party observer.

There also was a nasty Appellate Court contest fraught with overtones of a personal vendetta, in which Berrios engineered the dumping of a Hispanic incumbent, Justice Rudy Garcia. Berrios' slated candidate, Judge Jesse Reyes, emerged triumphant. Back in 2004, Garcia had the temerity to rule against an attempt to knock Toni Berrios' primary opponent off the ballot. On March 20, despite a field which included two white candidates, two Hispanic candidates and a black candidate, Berrios cajoled and strong-armed enough committeemen into backing Reyes to enable Reyes to win by 26,130 votes, getting 33.0 percent of the vote in a five-candidate field -- a notable achievement.

"(Berrios) gets results, and he also gets even," the Democratic strategist said. Already in Berrios' crosshairs are Aldermen Proco Joe Moreno (1st), Rey Colon (35th) and John Arena (45th), who will face voters in 2015.

Moreno actively and enthusiastically backed Munoz, Garcia and Will Guzzardi, the 24-year-old former Internet journalist who came within 111 votes of ousting Toni Berrios in the 39th Illinois House District contest. Colon's incompetence got him removed from the ballot for ward Democratic committeeman, and Guzzardi won the Logan Square-based 35th Ward by 1,131-781, getting 59.0 percent of the vote. Arena's "sin" was the fact that his 45th Ward sanitation superintendent, Adam Corona, spent an enormous amount of time working with Moreno to elect Guzzardi, and Guzzardi won the 45th Ward's four 39th District precincts by 260-200 over Berrios. All three can expect consequences.

Berrios also cannot be pleased with the performance of 38th Ward Committeeman Patti Jo Cullerton, the sister of Alderman Tim Cullerton. Guzzardi won 1,013-916 in the 38th Ward precincts in the 39th District, centered on Portage Park southwest of Six Corners. If Patti Jo Cullerton hankers for any future slating for countywide office, those hopes are now dead.

Back to countywide races:

The slated candidates won 15 of the 18 judicial contests, including the critical 1st District Supreme Court primary, six Appellate Court spots and 11 Circuit Court spots, or 83.3 percent.

"In a low-turnout primary, slating matters," observed Mike Tierney, a consultant for judicial aspirants. "In a race with a multitude of candidates, gender and Irish surnames matter. In a race with a number of Irish-surnamed women, then money, bar and media endorsements, union support and slating matter. In a race with a slated woman against an Irish-surnamed male, the woman wins. In a race with a slated man against a bunch of Irish-surnamed women, the man wins."

Also, adds Tierney, renowned as the "judge maker" because of his past successes, sometimes "nobody knows what matters."

In other words, DNA, slating and sheer blind luck sometimes determine who sits in a court of law.

For Supreme Court, appointed Justice Mary Jane Theis, facing Appellate Justices Aurie Pucinski and Joy Cunningham and lawyer Tom Flannigan, won with 48.3 percent of the vote in a turnout of 397,468. That's still a minority, but enough in a low-turnout primary. "(Theis) was the superior candidate," with bar and media endorsements, plus money and union and party backing, Tierney said.

The slated candidate won all six of the Appellate Court contests. In addition to Reyes, slated Judge Mathias Delort, facing Judge Pamela Hill-Veal and four Irish-surnamed opponents, including three women, won by 7,611 votes. Hill-Veal's vote of 82,691 was almost identical to Cunningham's 90,940, suggesting an upper-limit vote for black candidates. However, in another race, slated black incumbent Scott Neville got 157,936 votes (44.3 percent of the total cast) against two white Irish-surnamed foes, one a woman. How did that happen? The answer: Slating, meaning votes for Neville in predominantly white wards.

Eight of 11 slated Circuit Court candidates won. Two appointed and slated white male Circuit Court judges, Mike Forti and Al Swanson, lost, respectively, to Jessica O'Brien (by 48,877 votes) and Elizabeth Mary Hayes (by 16,706 votes), and one appointed/slated male black judge, Stanley Hill, lost to Karen Lynn O'Malley by 4,794 votes, largely because a black woman also was running and got 46,564 votes.

As Tierney noted, Irish-surnamed men have no edge, even against slated non-Irish-surnamed women. The slated Cynthia Ramirez, a Hispanic, beat Gerald Cleary by 82,559 votes, the slated Diann Marsalek beat Kevin Horan by 33,701 votes, and the slated Lorna Propes beat Ed Maloney by 19,030 votes. One anomaly was the blowout win of slated Judge Pam Leeming, of Indian heritage, who topped Mary Margaret Burke by 47,970 votes in a field of seven candidates.

Theis' victory was especially important, as the Democrats' 4-3 state Supreme Court majority would have been jeopardized had the "uncontrolled" Pucinski or Cunningham won. Interestingly, Cunningham's racial appeal fizzled, as she got only 44,532 of her 90,940 votes from black-majority wards and townships, and her surname didn't produce dividends in the white areas.

Theis won a plurality in 37 of Chicago's 50 wards, Cunningham won in nine, and Pucinski won in four. "The party showed muscle," Tierney said.

Theis won the predominantly white Southwest Side 10th, 11th, 13th, 19th and 23rd wards with an average of 55 percent of the vote. She finished with a solid one-third of the vote in the black-majority areas, and she won nine of the 11 Hispanic-majority wards. "Big Daddy's" "Big Hammer" did the trick.

Munoz laid out his road map for the Circuit Court clerk race. First, a turnout of at least 500,000 was projected, with 300,000 white voters, 150,000 black voters and 50,000 Hispanic voters. Second, he had to position himself as a reformer, with endorsements by the Chicago Tribune, Toni Preckwinkle and a phalanx of liberal politicians and organizations. Third, he planned to exploit public discontent with Brown's stewardship of the 2,066-job clerk's office and the discontent of both black and white politicians with her relentless ambition, which culminated in embarrassing losses for Chicago mayor in 2007 and for Cook County Board president in 2010.

Munoz thought that if he got a third of the black vote (50,000), 60 percent of the white vote (180,000) and 75 percent of the Hispanic vote (37,500), he would win. That didn't happen, largely due to Berrios' effort to keep committeemen focused on pushing the slate, not on foisting punishment upon past miscreants (such as Brown).

Brown thumped Munoz in the black-majority wards by 108,206-13,644, getting 88.8 percent of the vote. Brown won even in black areas where the alderman or committeeman was allied with Preckwinkle, whose popularity was not transferable to Munoz. Turnout in the Hispanic-majority wards, where Munoz expected a huge outpouring of "Brown Power," was 28,546, and Munoz won by an unimpressive 15,711-12,835, with just 55.0 percent of the vote. On the North Side, with Berrios marshalling support for Brown, Munoz won every Hispanic ward, but just barely. He took Berrios' 31st Ward by just 464 votes.

Brown won half of the wards in the white ethnic areas and four of 10 wards along the Lakefront. She won the middle-class white townships in the suburbs, but not in liberal Evanston and Oak Park. Overall, Munoz got barely a 45 percent of the white vote.

In the Metropolitan Water Reclamation District contest, the three slated candidates triumphed, which is a rarity. Berrios worked to ensure that all the committeemen backed the three slated candidates -- incumbent Debra Shore, Kari Steele, the daughter of a judge, and Patrick Daley Thompson, the nephew and grandson of former mayors Daley. Instead of expected "bulleting" and deal-making, the slated candidates ran in relative unison. The final vote was 193,454 for Shore, 180,896 for Steele and 160,961 for Thompson. The losers were former commissioner Patty Young (128,640 votes), Pat Horton, who was dumped by Berrios as a commissioner, (127,437 votes), and Stella Black (124,050 votes).