In Springfield, there's less and less optimism and grasp of reality, and more and more fantasy and denial.

Then there's "Mr. Sunshine," Dan Kotowski, the Democratic state senator from Park Ridge, also known as "Energizer Danny" for his indefatigable campaign regimen. Kotowski is not bothered by Illinois' dark and dire fiscal straits, which he blames on the "reckless spending policies of the past."

Although he has been a senator for more than 5 years and is part of the Democrats' 35-24 Illinois Senate majority, Kotowski postures as a vociferous reformer, a fiscal watchdog and a political outsider. Further, he contends that neither he nor the Democrats bear a whit of blame for the state's horrific financial mess. "We're fixing it," he said.

There is much to fix:

There are 2.8 million Illinoisans on Medicaid, an increase of 1.2 million since 2003. That means one in five of the state's residents, including children, illegal aliens and non-taxpayers, get state-paid benefits, ranging from free medical care to free prescription drugs to nursing home subsidies. Of the state's $33 billion budget, $28 billion is spent on Medicaid and education.

The Civic Federation, a nonpartisan watchdog group, unveiled a study which forecast that, based on current Medicaid growth, the current $9 billion in unpaid bills owed state vendors will rise to $35 billion by 2017. Of that $9 billion debt, $2 billion has already been shifted to fiscal year 2013, which begins July 1, and few expect the other $7 billion will be paid in fiscal year 2012.

Moody's has downgraded Illinois bonded indebtedness rating nine times in the past 3 years. In the previous 48 years, Illinois' rating was downgraded a total of nine times. The state's bond debt has soared from $12 billion in 2002 to $44.7 billion.

The state's pension debt is $170 billion, including $85 billion in unfunded pensions, $44 billion in projected health-care costs for retirees, $13 billion in borrowed debt and $4 billion borrowed from the pension system to close the 2011 budget hole.

"We're reforming the fiscal culture in Springfield," Kotowski insists, uttering nary a word of criticism of governors Rod Blagojevich and Pat Quinn, ignoring his support of the past five state budgets, his vote to increase the state income tax and his support of $16 billion in state borrowing.

"We've put a plan in place to control spending, corruption and sweetheart deals on state contracts and to restrain the governor's authority to spend without legislative approval," said Kotowski, who is the chairman of the Senate's Appropriations II Committee, which recommends funding for state education and constitutional offices, and vice chairman of the Appropriations I Committee, which recommends funding for human services providers.

Regarding public school funding, Kotowski said his committee's job is to "find what works, and fund what works." "Every option is on the table," he said, including teacher testing and teacher performance but not private schools or vouchers. As for higher education, Kotowski said that graduation rates should be the funding criteria. "Those schools such as the University of Illinois, which has an 80 percent graduation rate, should get more funding, and those like Chicago State University, with a 17 percent graduation rate, should get less," he said.

Sounding like a scourge of liberal excess, Kotowski proclaims that "we should spend only what we have" and that his committees have made "significant cuts in state spending . . . cut legislative salaries and COLAs . . . (and) cut spending for state contracts and administration."

"This guy talks like the only sane Democrat in Springfield, but then he votes just like every other irresponsible Democrat," one Republican Senate aide dryly observed of Kotowski. "Who does he think he's kidding?"

How about the voters of the 33rd Illinois Senate District, which has been renumbered the 28th? They think "Energizer Danny" is one swell guy because he has successfully marketed himself as an accessible, hardworking, nonpartisan, fiscally conservative, socially liberal, independent kind of a guy. In reality, Kotowski is a key cog in Senate President John Cullerton's political machine, as evidenced by the fact that he has $336,000 in his campaign account, is a committee chairman, and will get up to $500,000 from Cullerton for his 2012 reelection campaign, if needed.

When he is not in Springfield, Kotowski walks precincts -- an absolute rarity among a political class which would rather spend time on the phone squeezing lobbyists than knock on doors and confront irate voters. Back in April of 2005, Kotowski, formerly of Rogers Park and a former social services advocate, began walking precincts 5 hours a day. Suburbanites, who never see any politician or political worker, were impressed. He followed up each visit with a letter, then a newsletter, then a phone call, with the goal of getting an e-mail address and thence sending a bombardment of weekly e-mail. The Republican senator retired, the Republican nominee was unknown, and Kotowski kept walking, usually making 75 to 100 contacts daily. By November of 2006, 19 months later, Kotowski had created a vast network of people to whom he was now as familiar as a television news anchor. They had no idea what he stood for, but he was the nice guy who came to their door and kept in touch.

In a huge upset, Kotowski got 50.9 percent of the vote and won by 1,434 votes, becoming the first Democrat to hold the seat since the 1850s. After winning, Kotowski continued his routine, walking two to three days per week and constantly expanding his network. He was reelected in 2008 by a 16,051-vote margin, with 59.9 percent of the vote -- and he kept walking.

Kotowski's stratagem was unique to his office and area. If he were in Chicago, voters would be demanding that he fix their potholes or provide some service and would spurn him if he failed. Suburban voters are undemanding, and they are unaware that a state senator can provide any service.

The current 33rd District stretches from Canfield Avenue, at the west edge of Chicago's 41st Ward, to Interstate 290, taking in Woodfield. It has a few Chicago precincts and all of Park Ridge, Des Plaines, Elk Grove, Mount Prospect and Rolling Meadows. Kotowski began his perpetual walkathon in Park Ridge, spreading westward, and he now is in his fourth or fifth cycle. The district has roughly 85,000 housing units, and Kotowski probably has visited 30,000.

But, as no good deed goes unpunished, Kotowski got blindsided by his good buddy Cullerton in the 2011 remap. Instead of moving eastward and adding Chicago precincts to his district, Kotowski's new 28th District leaped over Interstate 290 and absorbed Schaumburg, east Hoffman Estates, south Palatine, north Itasca, Roselle, Hanover Park and some of Bloomingdale and Bartlett -- and lost 60 percent of Park Ridge and most of Mount Prospect while adding Arlington Heights. Half of Kotowski's meticulously built network, and 5 years worth of sweat, was vaporized. Kotowski is a total unknown in 50 percent of the district.

"They didn't punish him," said the Republican source of Cullerton's map for Kotowski. "They figured he had the work ethic to win." Cullerton now "owes him big," he added.

Kotowski is already bustling through Schaumburg, introducing himself and using his war chest for a quick follow-up. But the Republicans are not asleep, and they are aware of their golden opportunity to define Kotowski before he entrenches himself. "We're facing the 'Detroitification' of Illinois," charged Jim O'Donnell, one of two Republicans aspiring to Kotowski's seat. "We're losing population, skilled workers and our tax base. We must cut spending. We must cut taxes, and neither Kotowski nor the Democratic majority are serious about solving the problem." O'Donnell is a Park Ridge business executive who has raised more than $100,000. "I will vote to repeal the income tax hike, and I will make sure voters know that 30 Democrats voted to raise that tax and that Kotowski was one of them," O'Donnell promised.

The other Republican in the race is five-term Roselle Mayor Gayle Smolinski, who boasts that she has "trimmed municipal costs" in Roselle and who says that she would strive to eliminate unfunded state government mandates. Smolinski, who has been the suburb's mayor since 1993, is endorsed by U.S. Representative Peter Roskam (R-6).

The outlook: Geographically, 37 percent of the district lies in Schaumburg Township in the west end, 25 percent in Maine Township to the east, and 21 percent in central Elk Grove Township. DuPage County (Bloomington, Hanover Park, Bartlett, Roselle) has 10 percent of the precincts, and the rest are scattered in Chicago, Palatine and Rosemont. Because all of Park Ridge north of the Northwest Highway was excised from the district, O'Donnell's base is less formidable than Smolinski's, but O'Donnell's money will enable saturation mailing, and he is favored.

In 2010 Republican Bill Brady beat Pat Quinn 49-43 percent in the area covered by the new district, and Mark Kirk won his U.S. Senate race 53-41 percent. However, Obama won 59-39 percent in 2008, and it was a 49-49 Bush-Kerry tie in 2004.

It is impossible to match "Energizer Danny" door-for-door or dollar-for-dollar. Kotowski will win the east end of the district by 55-45 percent or better. The battleground is west of I-290. O'Donnell and the Republicans can't wait until the autumn. They need to go negative on Kotowski now, branding him as a tax hiker and a big spender, and O'Donnell needs to become "Energizer Jimmy."

 My prediction: Kotowski will break even in the west end of the district, and he will be secure in his seat for the next decade.