February 1, 2012
CHICAGO WARD REDRAW CATALYZES 2015 CAMPAIGN; FIORETTI TO RUN FOR MAYOR, SPOSATO TO CHALLENGE CULLERTON

ANALYSIS & OPINION BY RUSS STEWART

The 2015 Chicago mayoral and aldermanic elections are a mere 37 months -- or about 1,125 days - away, but a smart and ambitious politician does not let the proverbial grass grow under his or her feet.

Catalyzed by the City Council's ward remap, which passed with 41 votes on Jan. 19, aldermanic contests are under way in many wards, and one displaced alderman is poised to run against Mayor Rahm Emanuel.

In the 38th Ward, Alderman Tim Cullerton (38th) will face a tough challenge from Alderman Nick Sposato (36th). Sposato's ward was cannibalized, split three ways, and he now lives in the black-majority 29th Ward. However, 27 of the current 36th Ward's 51 precincts are in the new 38th Ward. Sposato, who is younger and more energetic than Cullerton, will have 3 years to build a base.

In the 45th Ward, 2011 runoff loser John Garrido expected that his Elston-Austin precinct would be drawn out of the ward. It wasn't. He's still inside the ward. That sets up a rematch with Alderman John Arena (45th), who topped Garrido by 30 votes. The ward lost some precincts around Devon and Nagle avenues and in Mayfair. The remap slightly aids Arena, but it does not seriously damage Garrido.

In the new Hispanic-majority 36th Ward, which has a 66.7 percent Hispanic population but barely a majority Hispanic voting population, the leading contender for 2015 is state Representative Luis Arroyo (D-3), whose residence was carefully drawn into the ward. It consists of Hispanic territory from the old 29th, 31st, 38th and 36th wards. Arroyo is seen as the choice of Joe Berrios, the county assessor and county party chairman, who is the committeeman in the adjacent 31st Ward.

And the South Loop 2nd Ward, a once predominantly black area that is now represented by white Alderman Bob Fioretti, was vaporized. The council's Black Caucus grumbled about losing a pair of aldermen due to black population loss. That was solved by taking all the black residents out of the 2nd Ward, shifting the white residents into the 42nd Ward and placing Fioretti's home in the 76 percent black 28th Ward. According to sources, Fioretti plans to run for mayor in 2015.

The council has 22 white, 19 black, eight Hispanic and one Asian aldermen who were elected in 2011 for terms which expire in May of 2015. Of the white aldermen, Ed Burke (14th), John Pope (10th) and Dick Mell (33rd) represent wards with a Hispanic-majority population. They still do under the new map, as do three more white aldermen, Marty Quinn (13th), Mike Zalewski (23rd) and Sposato (36th). Black Alderman Toni Foulkes' Southwest Side 15th Ward, which is just to the south of Burke's war and to the east of Quinn's ward, is 72 percent Hispanic.

The new map should ensure the election of 15 Hispanic, 18 black and 17 white or Asian aldermen. In all likelihood, it will be 10, 18 and 22, respectively. Burke and Mell have iron grips on their wards, control their Democratic organizations as committeemen, and have the money to co-opt or neutralize any Hispanic opposition. Likewise in Quinn's 13th Ward, where Illinois House Speaker Mike Madigan is the Democratic committeeman, and in Zalewski's 23rd Ward, where former congressman Bill Lipinski is the Democratic committeeman.

Like Burke and Mell, both committeemen, despite Hispanic populations of 63.8 percent in the 13th Ward and 66.7 percent in the 23rd Ward, have the clout to squash viable Hispanic opposition, at least in 2015. Pope's ward is 63.3 percent Hispanic, but he won with 59.3 percent of the vote in 2011. Hence, the number of Hispanic aldermen will increase by only two in 2015.

The council's insider mapmakers -- Mell and Pat O'Connor (40th) -- stuck it to Fioretti while creating two Loop-area white-majority wards. They easily could have moved Fioretti, who resides in the booming South Loop area, which is upscale and white, into the Loop, and Brendan Reilly (42nd), whose over-populated ward stretches from Jackson Boulevard to State Street and North Avenue, along the Gold Coast, and west toward Wicker Park, but they chose to create a new, meandering North Loop/Ukrainian Village/Lincoln Park white-majority ward and gave Reilly most of the 2nd Ward's white precincts.

"It's way too soon to make a decision" regarding 2015, Fioretti said.

Here's a demographic, geographic and political analysis of the Northwest Side's newly configured wards:

38th Ward: The putative Cullerton-Sposato clash will pit a wholesale politician against a retail politician. In 2011 Cullerton, who was appointed in 2010 to the vacancy created when Tom Allen was named a judge, spent $375,000 and won the runoff with 60.4 percent of the vote. At age 62 and a scion of the famed "Cullerton Dynasty," Tim Cullerton relied on union money, union workers and residual surname recognition to win a full term. He is not inclined to work the precincts. His idea of service is to let his staff do the work, sit in his office, and let his constituents come to him. That's a "wholesale" politician -- winning the job with money and manpower.

By contract, Sposato is a "retail" politician. He is ubiquitous and visible, and he attempts to attend every community, service organization and religious function. "He's everywhere," said Mike Nardello, his longtime ally, who is running for state representative. In 2011 Sposato spent $72,952, to $121,711 spent by Alderman John Rice, but he walloped Rice in the runoff by 5,851-4,423, getting 56.1 percent of the vote.

The old 38th Ward extended from Keeler Avenue in Old Irving Park through the west half of Portage Park (west of Laramie Avenue) to Octavia Avenue, between Gunnison Street and Belmont Avenue, with a large Hispanic population south of Addison Street. The new 38th Ward extends from Laramie to the city limits at Belmont-Cumberland and northward to Lawrence Avenue, absorbing the entire Cumberland Avenue corridor that previously was in the 36th Ward. Cullerton's Hispanic precincts are in the new 36th Ward, and the east end of his ward is gone. Roughly half of the anticipated 55 precincts in the new ward come from each of the old wards. That makes it a "fair fight" in 2015.

The outlook: Under city ordinance, an alderman must reside in his ward for 1 year prior to filing. That means that Sposato must move by November of 2013 and that he has 3 years to "be everywhere." Cullerton beat seven underfunded, unknown opponents in 2011. If Sposato campaigns like a maniac for the next 32 months, don't be surprised if Cullerton retires.

39th Ward: Alderman Marge Laurino is ecstatic. "We got a lot of the things that we wanted," said her husband, Randy Barnette, who is the ward's Democratic committeeman. Almost all of Albany Park's Hispanics and renters were exiled, with most going to Alderman Rey Colon (35th) and some going to Mell, and Old Irving Park went to the 45th Ward. Laurino gained three precincts in Mayfair around Saint Edward Parish, all of Forest Glen, plus the northern portion of Gladstone Park (extending west to Devon and Nagle) and Edgebrook -- all from the 45th Ward.

"In federal and state contests, the ward is more Republican," Barnette acknowledged. However, Laurino is utterly secure. A note of interest: state Representative John D'Amico (D-15), the alderman's nephew, who lived in the 45th Ward's Edgebrook area, was mapped into the 39th Ward. When Marge Laurino retires, D'Amico will be the next alderman.

45th Ward: Rumors were rife that Chicago's public sector and trade unions, who dumped more than $500,000 into the ward in 2011 to beat Garrido, were insistent that Mell map Garrido into the 39th Ward or the 41st Ward. It didn't happen. The new map removes at least nine precincts in Garrido's areas of strength (Forest Glen, Edgebrook, Gladstone Park) and three pro-Arena precincts (Mayfair), replacing them with Old Irving Park. Also, the ward's Hispanic population increased from roughly one-sixth to one-quarter.

In 2011 Arena's mailers excoriated Garrido for being a Republican and accused him of getting contributions from those connected to the city parking meter deal, which Garrido denied. His post-election defamation lawsuit was dismissed under the Citizens Protection Act, which guarantees campaign "free speech." A recent Illinois Supreme Court decision in the Sandhome case now makes palpable falsehoods actionable. Garrido has filed to reinstate his case. "I want to make sure (the unions) can't tell outright lies about me" in 2015, Garrido said.

The outlook: The ward remains divided geographically and ideologically, with Arena's strength in the more liberal south (Portage Park) slightly eclipsing Garrido's base in the more conservative north (Jefferson Park, Gladstone Park). The 2011 race has never ended, and a 2015 rematch is certain.

41st Ward: For 20 years, Brian Doherty was seen but not heard, rarely stirring controversy or injecting his thoughts into City Council debate. Mary O'Connor carries on that tradition. Elected in 2011, O'Connor is a loyal cog in the "Emanuel Machine." The ward lost a few Nagle-Lawrence precincts to the 45th Ward. O'Connor's runoff foe, Maurita Gavin, is now on Sposato's staff, and she is unlikely to try again in 2015.

29th Ward: Alderman Deborah Graham, who is not renowned as either modest or soft-spoken, has problems. The remap excised Hispanic areas around Riis Park but added white precincts in Galewood and Montclare. Sposato, former alderman Bill Banks and 36th Ward committeeman candidate Larry Andolino (who is facing Sposato) all live in the ward. U.S. Representative Danny Davis (D-7), a former alderman and county commissioner, is challenging Graham for ward committeeman. If Davis wins, as is likely, Graham will be toast in 2015.