January 25, 2012
REPUBLICANS DOOMED TO DECADE-LONG MINORITY IN ILLINOIS SENATE

ANALYSIS & OPINION BY RUSS STEWART

Republicans in Springfield, particularly in the Illinois Senate, have an understandably severe inferiority complex.

They are ignored and disrespected by the majority Democrats and deemed irrelevant and inconsequential in legislative deliberations, and after the 2012 elections they may progress from being impotent to sterilized. Their decade-long minority status could continue for another 20 years.

"We are the bulwark against reckless Democratic spending, borrowing and taxing, but voters don't seem to care," said one irritated but optimistic Republican Senate source. Nevertheless, he predicts that this year "will not be the perfect storm Democrats anticipate. Republicans will gain seats."

The Democrats hold a commanding 35-24 majority in the Senate. If they gain five more seats they will have a two-thirds super majority, and they will be able to override a governor's veto and pass bills in overtime session without Republican votes.

A district-by-district analysis indicates such a scenario is possible. The legislative remap crafted by Senate President John Cullerton and House Speaker Mike Madigan, redrew the boundaries of the 59 Senate districts, and it could give the Democrats as many as 40 seats or as few as 32. Eight Republican senators were lumped into four districts, six new open districts were created, and three Democratic incumbents -- Dan Kotowski, Gary Forby and John Sullivan -- took a hit for the team and are running in marginal to Republican districts. Cullerton will heavily fund them.

Only 18 of the 59 seats are deemed safely Republican, while 22 are solidly Democratic, including nine black-majority districts and four Hispanic-majority districts. That puts 19 seats in play. Here's an analysis and the outlook.

Endangered Republican seats:

23rd District (Itasca, Villa Park, Addison, Bartlett): Incumbent Republican Carole Paukau faces state Representative Randy Ramey, the DuPage County Republican chairman, in a nasty, expensive primary. Each will spend more than $100,000. Ramey's DUI arrest last August is an issue. Waiting in the wings is Democratic Villa Park Mayor Tom Cullerton, John Cullerton's cousin, who will be lavishly funded. The race is a toss-up.

25th District (Batavia, Geneva): Incumbent Republican Chris Lauzen is retiring. This is solid Republican turf, going for Bill Brady by 57-34 percent for governor in 2010, but that "Unlovable Loser," Jim Oberweis, coming off a 2008 congressional defeat after three statewide primary losses, is back. "He's more humble and gracious," said the Republican source, which means he must have had a temperament transplant. He's also the only Republican who could possibly blow this seat. He faces Dave Richmond, a former congressional staffer and a township official, and Rich Slocum, a school board member, in the primary. Against divided opposition, Oberweis will be nominated, but a well funded Democrat could beat him. Leans Republican.

31st District (Grayslake, Round Lake Beach in western Lake County): Incumbent Republican Suzi Schmidt won with 53.5 percent of the vote in 2010, but she retired after domestic violence headlines when she was recorded telling a 911 operator to ignore a call from her husband. Republicans rave about their likely candidate, Joe Neal, an engineer, a Navy reservist and an Iraq War veteran who is the son of a former county Republican chairman. The district went 51-38 percent for Brady in 2010. The Democratic candidate is Melinda Bush. Likely Republican.

New seats:

34th District (Rockford): Cullerton's map corralled every possible Democrat and pushed incumbent Republican Dave Syverson out into the Rockford suburbs and exurbs. The Democratic field contains two past losers, and the Republican candidate, county Commissioner Frank Gambino, is credible. Dan Lewandowski is close to organized labor, and he lost to Syverson by 6,011 votes in 2006. Marla Wilson, who reputedly is Cullerton's choice, lost to Syverson by 2,738 votes in 2010. Also running is former television news anchor Steve Stadelman. Leans Democratic, with Lewandowski regarded as the weakest Democrat.

48th District (Decatur and suburbs): Cullerton created this district specifically for his chief of staff, Andy Manar, who previously was the Senate budget director for Cullerton's predecessor, Emil Jones. "We're going to love running against this guy," the Republican source said of Manar. "He helped shepherd through the income tax hike, and he was involved in every Blagojevich budget." The Republican candidate is popular Decatur Mayor Mike McElroy. Downstaters are less forgiving about raising taxes than Chicagoans. Manar will be trashed. Toss-up.

Endangered Democrats:

9th District (Glenview, Evanston, Wilmette, parts of Skokie): Incumbent Democrat Jeff Schoenberg retired after a decade in office, and the obvious heir apparent was state Representative Daniel Biss, a youthful workaholic campaigner and a prodigious fund-raiser who won a Republican-held seat in 2010 by 4,038 votes. But even though the Democrats won the district for governor and senator in 2010, the Republicans believe their candidate, retired financier Marc Levine, has the money and issues to be viable. Levine advocates serious pension reform, which appeals to the Chicago business community. Their donations, along with Levine's ability to self-fund, put him in the game. Biss has opposed pension reform, and he backed the income tax hike, so the candidate contrasts are clearly drawn. Each candidate will spend $400,000. Likely Democratic.

29th District (Deerfield, Lake Bluff, Highland Park, Lake Forest, Northfield): Liberal incumbent Democrat Susan Garrett, who was first elected in 2002, was thought likely to run for Congress against Republican Bob Dold in 2012. Instead, she retired. The Democrats quickly coalesced around Julie Morrison of Deerfield, the West Deerfield Township supervisor. The Republican candidate will be Arie Friedman, a pediatrician and an Air Force reservist with Tea Party ties. Friedman has appeal to the district's sizable Jewish population and to the 2,500-plus service members at the Great Lakes Naval Station, who are eligible to vote. Cullerton will need to spend $400,000 to salvage Morrison. Leans Democratic.

36th District (Rock Island, Moline): The Jacobs' family's thriving business may go bust in 2012. Incumbent Democrat Mike Jacobs was anointed for his father's Senate seat when Denny Jacobs, who was first elected in 1986, quit in 2005 to become the chief lobbyist for ComEd (now Ameren). Denny Jacobs' father, Oral, was a state representative from 1964 to 1978. Mike made the mistake of being the chief sponsor of Ameren's recent rate hike bill. Now, former state representative Mike Boland (1994 to 2010), who got 12 percent of the vote in the 2010 Democratic primary for lieutenant governor, is challenging Jacobs. Boland and the "Jacobs Clan" have been mortal enemies for years. The Republican candidate is Bill Albracht, a former Green Beret and a 30-year Secret Service agent who once was assigned to the presidential protection detail. The loser of the nasty Democratic primary will not aid the winner. Leans Republican.

47th District (Quincy and western Illinois): Brady got 64 percent of the vote and Mark Kirk got 63 percent in 2010, and even McCain won 50-47 percent in 2008. "It's the fifth most Republican Senate district in Illinois," said the Republican source. Incumbent Democrat John Sullivan "cannot win," he added. The Republican candidate is Randy Frese, the Adams County Circuit Court clerk. Leans Republican.

56th District (Alton, Edwardsville, Collinsville): Incumbent Democrat Bill Haine, a 14-year Madison County state's attorney, was unopposed in 2008. This year he faces Mike Babcock, a township official in Republican-trending Madison County. Haine voted against workers compensation reform and for the tax hike. He draws his $130,000 county pension atop his $80,000 senator's salary, and he practices law. When questioned by a television reporter about his bounty, Haine replied: "Isn't that great." It's a clip the Republicans plan to use extensively. Likely Democratic.

59th District (Benton, far Southeast Illinois): Incumbent Democrat Gary Forby is a perpetual Republican target. Cullerton spent almost $1 million to rescue Forby in 2008, when he won with just 51.5 percent of the vote over Republican Ken Burzynski, who is back for a rematch. An anti-Obama wave will hurt Forby. Toss-up.

28th District (Park Ridge, Des Plaines, Elk Grove, Schaumburg, Roselle): They call him the "Energizer Danny," referring to incumbent Democrat Dan Kotowski, whose indefatigable door-to-door campaigning won him a 1,434-vote upset in 2006 in a district that had elected only Republicans since the 1860s. Kotowski spends at least 12 hours a week in the precincts, and he has a huge database of contacts. He won by 16,051 votes in 2008.

But a new district and a liberal, tax-hiking voting record puts Kotowski, of Park Ridge, in serious jeopardy. The remap sliced off half of Mount Prospect and Park Ridge and all of the 41st Ward and pushed the district west of Interstate 290 into Schaumburg, Roselle and Palatine, ending in Bartlett and Hanover Park. The district is 40 percent new, partially negating 6 years of Kotowski's work. "I'm campaigning there every day I'm not in Springfield," he said

"Kotowski supplied the critical vote to pass the income tax hike," said Jim O'Donnell, one of two Republicans seeking to oppose him. "He's voted for six unbalanced state budgets and raised taxes by $7 billion." Also running is Republican Roselle Mayor Gayle Smolinski. Kotowski has $336,000 in his campaign account, and he blames the "reckless spending of past governors" for Illinois' fiscal problems. Toss-up.

My early prediction: A 32-27 Democratic majority in 2013.