January 18, 2012
MULLIGAN'S BOTCHED PETITIONS PORTEND HERCULEAN WRITE-IN EFFORT

ANALYSIS & OPINION BY RUSS STEWART

It's better to be silent and be thought a fool than to speak and prove it.

That adage, somewhat juxtaposed, applies to politics: It's better to do nothing and be thought beatable than to do something and prove it.

Unfortunately for 20-year state Representative Rosemary Mulligan (R-65) of Des Plaines, doing next to nothing in her nominating petition drive proved something: that her personal and political organizations have dramatically atrophied, that she's become a "paper tiger," and that she's eminently beatable in 2012.  "She's not focused, not energetic and not organized," grumbled one of her longtime Park Ridge supporters. "She's no longer in the game."

"Nonsense," roared Mulligan, who heaps the blame for her failure to qualify for the March 20 Republican primary ballot on everybody else. First, there are the Maine Township Republican officials. "They did nothing. Not a single sheet. In fact, (Road Commissioner Bob) Provenzano's son is managing my (Democratic) opponent's campaign," charged Mulligan, referring to Democrat Marty Moylan.

Second, there are the Springfield political operatives of House Republican leader Tom Cross. "They didn't do a good job of getting signatures," Mulligan whined. "Many were invalid."

Chris Provenzano, a political consultant, denied that he has any connection to Moylan's campaign, but he said that Moylan and his father are "close friends" and that his dad is "neutral" in the Mulligan-Moylan contest.

A rhetorical question for Mulligan: You had 90 days, beginning Sept. 5, to circulate petitions. It took 500 valid signatures to qualify. You are the Maine Township Republican committeeman, and you have a precinct organization. You've been a state representative for 20 years, and you have legions of admirers and contacts. Your fellow Republican, Jim O'Donnell, who is running for state senator, got 2,500 signatures. What's wrong with you? "I was late getting started," Mulligan admitted. "I wasn't on top of it."

Another question: If you didn't have the workers to get signatures, how do you expect to prevail in a write-in campaign? And, if successful, to win in November? "We will mail heavily," she said. "I plan to spend $250,000."

On Dec. 5 Mulligan filed a measly 649 petition signatures, just 149 more than the statutory minimum. Under a new state law, a maximum of 1,500 signatures can be submitted by House candidates. Objections were filed to almost 400 signatures, and 320 of those objections were sustained, leaving Mulligan with 329 valid signatures. She withdrew her candidacy on Jan. 9.

Mulligan initially blithely announced that she would be on the November ballot anyway, since she could as committeeman appoint herself to the 55th District Republican "vacancy," but that's only if no one else gets 500 write-in votes. If somebody does, then there's no vacancy. So her write-in effort has begun. She needs at least 500 valid write-in signatures, which is the minimum number of nominating petition signatures, or more write-ins than anybody else who gets more than 500.

"I wouldn't be surprised if somebody else tries," Moylan said. And, indeed, many will. A write-in candidate must file a notarized "declaration of intent" with the Illinois Board of Elections not later than March 13, a week before the primary, but that limits the vote to those cast on March 20. There will be early voting from Feb. 16 to March 16, and absentee ballots will be available 30 days prior to the primary, so a serious write-in aspirant must file by Feb. 16.

"This is all about a 'ground game,'" said one anti-Mulligan politician, adding that a write-in campaign "cannot be done by mail. You need personal, door-to-door contact. You need 50 workers who can deliver 20 votes from their family, friends and neighbors."

In 2008, a presidential year with the Obama-Clinton battle spiking interest, turnout in the 65th District was 10,641 in the Democratic primary and 5,358 in Republican primary. In 2010, with Mulligan unopposed and no Democrat filing, she got 5,348 votes. That proves a Republican base in the district of about 5,000.

There is no Democratic primary this year statewide, countywide or locally. Voting Democrat on March 20 is inconsequential. So, according to sources, several scenarios are unfolding.

First there is the Madigan-Moylan elimination scenario. Why should Springfield Democrats spend $250,000 to defeat Mulligan when a modest $25,000 spent for a write-in "shill" candidate in the Republican primary can eliminate Mulligan as the candidate? That's simply being cost-effective. Here's the mathematical equation: $25K+50W+40V=2,000v&shill. That means $25,000 allocated among 50 65th District workers, who will corral 40 Republican primary write-in votes, will generate 2,000 total votes and win the Republican nomination for a Democratic "shill" for state representative -- thereby ensuring Moylan's election.

But there is a caveat: Whoever runs as a write-in candidate must have an easily spelled name. A dozen write-in candidates will be worthless. All the anti-Mulligans will have to unite behind a single write-in candidate.

Second, there is the neutralization scenario. Republican township officials "will have a rude awakening" in 2013, promised Mulligan. "They will have opposition." But not if Mulligan is no longer the state representative. The Provenzano-led township bunch may field their own write-in candidate, or they could coalesce behind the Madigan-Moylan choice. They can deliver at least 500 write-in votes. And if Mulligan loses in this year, there won't be any Mulligan-led purge in 2013.

Third, Mulligan has no "ground game," due to 14 years of Republican ideological and personal fratricide in Maine Township. The collapse began with the 1998 death of Committeeman and state Senator Marty Butler, the former Park Ridge mayor. Bill Darr, the new committeeman, allied himself with the social conservative faction and dumped township Supervisor Mark Thompson in 2001, replacing him with Bob Dudycz. In 2002 Thompson, allied with Mulligan and the pro-choice moderate faction, ousted Darer as committeeman. The Darr-Dudycz conservatives then bolted.

Thompson narrowly lost to Dudycz in the supervisor primary in 2005, and Dudycz ally Bob Provenzano lost to Thompson for committeeman in 2006. In 2009 Thompson, with no help from the Dudycz-Provenzano faction and desultory aid from Mulligan, lost to Moylan for Des Plaines mayor, and in 2010 Mulligan turned on Thompson, ran against him for committeeman, and beat him with 54 percent of the vote. Thompson's few allies then abandoned Mulligan, and now she, at age 70, is reaping the fruit of stupidity, purges, selfishness, deceit and vindictiveness. The Republicans have self-destructed, and disgusted volunteer workers are long gone. There's nobody left to help Mulligan, and there are a legion of enemies who want to punish her.

There's no love lost between Moylan, who was a Republican precinct captain when Darr was the committeeman, and Mulligan. Moylan, who was recruited to run as a Democrat by Illinois House Speaker Mike Madigan, said that his organization gathered 3,000 petition signatures and filed 1,600. "I have workers. She hasn't," Moylan boasted, saying that Mulligan does not work well with other Republican candidates, that she has not had an organization meeting for 15 months, and that she had 20 people at her last fund-raiser. "I've raised $58,000," Moylan added. "I will spend $250,000." Responds Mulligan: "He sent out solicitations to 200 (Des Plaines) workers for his fund-raiser. He's heading down the Blagojevich road."

"I've brought home many projects," emphasized Mulligan, who is the ranking House Republican on both the Human Services and Education Appropriations committees and who was part of two House task forces on Medicaid and education reform. "I have the skills and the knowledge to solve the (state) fiscal mess," she said. "I want to be part of the solution." Mulligan has long been an ardent advocate for social service agencies, and she said she will get the endorsements of the American Federation of State County and Municipal Employees, the Service Employees International Union and the Illinois Medical Association.

The Madigan remap, which renumbered Mulligan's 65th District the 55th, did her no favors. The old district took in all of Park Ridge, the south two-thirds of Des Plaines and eastern Mount Prospect. In past elections, usually against female Park Ridge Democrats, Mulligan split Park Ridge evenly but won Des Plaines and Mount Prospect by better than 55-45. Backed by lavish funding from Personal PAC, the pro-choice powerhouse political action committee, Mulligan's network of abortion rights supporters always came to her rescue.

But this year will be different. Half of Park Ridge, north of the Northwest Highway, was excised from the district, and all of Elk Grove Village plus slivers of Schaumburg, Rolling Meadows and Arlington Heights were added. Des Plaines and part of Mount Prospect remain.

"That's Carolyn Krause's old district," Mulligan said, even though Krause retired in 2008 and a Democrat won the seat. "I will win it."

Moylan has a wholly different scenario. "I've not raised property taxes," he said. "I've provided good government. I've finalized the Rivers Casino. People will vote for me because I've been effective."

My prediction: If Moylan gets 55 to 60 percent of the Des Plaines vote, he wins, but don't expect Mulligan to be on the November ballot.