January 11, 2012
JESSE JR. IN SERIOUS JEOPARDY IN 2ND DISTRICT PRIMARY

ANALYSIS & OPINION BY RUSS STEWART

Normally in a political race, the proverbial "best" candidate wins. That definitely won't occur in the Democratic primary in the 2nd U.S. House District, where the candidate with the least worst bad judgment will prevail.

In the March 20 contest between U.S. Representative Jesse Jackson Jr. (D-2) and former U.S. representative Debbie Halvorson (D-11), their respective judgmental ability, or lack thereof, is the paramount issue.

Jackson, age 45, the son of the fading civil rights leader, used his eponymous name to get elected to Congress in 1995. He consolidated his South Side political base, got his wife, Sandi, elected as the 7th Ward alderman in 2007, and was regularly boomed in the news media as a future Chicago mayor. But after he paid his wife $315,000 from his campaign account from 2001 to 2010 as a consultant and then generated headlines in September of 2010 about his extra-marital affair with a nightclub hostess, his credibility collapsed. Jackson had earlier denied the affair and had called the hostess a "social acquaintance."

Another sticky thicket then erupted concerning Jackson's aspirations to Barack Obama's U.S. Senate seat in 2008. The U.S. House Ethics Committee is investigating whether he used his federal staff to intercede with then-Governor Rod Blagojevich to secure the appointment.

At his trial, Robert Blagojevich, the governor's brother and campaign treasurer, testified that two Jackson associates approached him and offered $6 million to "buy" the seat -- $1 million up front to the governor's campaign fund and $5 million later. Jackson denied the assertions, and he has not been charged with any crime.

Nevertheless, given that the former governor was convicted on 17 of 20 counts, Jackson's purported involvement in that tawdry affair has further diminished his credibility and has raised questions about his integrity.

However, Halvorson, age 52, is no pillar of wisdom, and her judgment also is flawed. Elected Crete Township clerk in 1993, Halvorson used her Will County base and the increasing south suburban black vote to upset longtime Olympia Fields Republican state Senator Aldo DeAngelis in 1996. By 2008 Halvorson had risen to be the Democrats' majority leader, the first in line to succeed Senate President Emil Jones.

Jones retired in 2008. Halvorson was poised to advance to his job, making her one of the two most powerful legislators in Illinois -- the other being Illinois House Speaker Mike Madigan. Instead, Halvorson opted to run for Congress from the open south suburban 11th District, handing the Senate presidency to John Cullerton. Oops. That was bad decision number one.

Elected to the U.S. House by a monstrous 76,044-vote margin (with 58.0 percent of the vote), Halvorson spent $2.2 million and ran almost 10,000 votes ahead of Obama. Clearly, she concluded, she was "Ms. Popularity," utterly unbeatable and with a lifetime seat, and that she could vote with impunity for the Obama-Pelosi agenda, including the Obama health care package and every other bailout and spending initiative. Oops. Second bad decision.

Voters in the outlying suburban and rural district, which ran from Indiana west along the southern Cook County border to Joliet, New Lenox and Frankfort and through four counties south of Interstate 80, and south to Bloomington and Normal, and which also included Ottawa and Kankakee, were not pleased. In 2010 obscure Republican Adam Kinzinger, a 31-year-old Air Force veteran and a McLean County commissioner, upset Halvorson by a 33,089-vote margin (with 57.3 percent of the vote), an embarrassing thrashing for an incumbent who spent $2.5 million. Halvorson's vote declined from 185,652 in 2008 to 96,019 in 2010 -- a nearly 50 percent drop-off. Her once-bright career was in the tank.

However, the Democrats in Springfield have inadvertently resurrected Halvorson. To comply with the federal Voting Rights Act's non-retrogression clause and preserve Illinois' three black-majority congressional districts, all of which lost population, the Madigan-Cullerton remap pushed Jackson's district far into Will and Kankakee counties. Peotone, where Jackson is a booster of the third airport, is now in his district, as are Crete, Kankakee, Bradley and Bourbonnais. The eastern part of the old 11th District was appended onto the 2nd District, meaning that one-third of the new district is composed of Halvorson's former constituents. The black population of the district is about 53 percent.

Jackson's old district, which basically stopped at the Cook County-Will County line, was approximately 60 percent black. The new district stretches from Pershing Road in Burnham Park, which is 3800 South, east of the Dan Ryan Expressway in the 4th Ward, to the southern Kankakee County border, roughly 66 miles.

The Republicans filed a federal lawsuit challenging the Democrats' remap, alleging that congressional districts are supposed to be "compact and contiguous" and that racial considerations, such as not creating a second Hispanic-majority district to protect the three black representatives, and political considerations, such as exterminating Republicans, were violated by the remap. The federal court dismissed the suit.

The outcome will be determined by money, race and geography. Jackson resides in the South Shore neighborhood in Chicago, and Halvorson lives in Crete. Halvorson has been an implacable foe of Peotone construction, which will cost at least $700 million and create around 15,000 jobs. Jackson has near-universal name recognition in the new part of the 2nd District, almost all negative, especially given his pro-Peotone stance, ethics scrapes, race and liberal voting record.

In the Jackson-Halvorson primary race, white Democratic participants, mostly liberals, will have no aversion to backing Halvorson, whom they supported in the past. Jackson's ace is his expected endorsement by President Barack Obama, whom he has loyally supported in the House -- as did Halvorson. That nod should solidify his black base. At least 65 percent of the voters in the primary will be black.

"Do not presume that Jackson has unanimous support in the black community," cautions one black politician. Bishop Larry Trotter of Sweet Holy Spirit Church has already lined up 20 black clergy for Halvorson. Black women are incensed about his affair with a white woman. Aldermen Pat Dowell (3rd), Leslie Hairston (5th), Michelle Harris (8th) and Carrie Austin (34th) won't help him. Emil Jones, Obama's political godfather, along with Wilson Frost and Bob Shaw, will covertly aid Halvorson, and Sean Howard, a former Todd Stroger staffer, is running her campaign. Adds the politician: "Halvorson will get more than a third of the black vote."

In the open 26th Illinois House District, which previously was occupied by 4th Ward Alderman Will Burns, Jackson is backing Kenny Johnson against Burns' choice, Christian Mitchell. This is Cook County Board president Toni Preckwinkle's ward, and the Preckwinkle-Burns operation will now do nothing to assist Jackson. "He has been making enemies for years," added the politician.

"Jesse has real problems," concurred a Chicago alderman outside the 2nd District. "Women (voters) are upset, and the female South Side aldermen likely won't help him."

As of the Sept. 30 federal fund-raising disclosures deadline, Jackson had raised $350,972 in 2011 and had $259,215 in cash on hand. Halvorson raised no money, but she still had $210,311 on hand from her 2010 campaign. To win, Jackson will need to spend $500,000 through March 20, and Halvorson will need to spend a like amount.

The new 2nd District encompasses all or part of nine Chicago wards: the South and Southeast Side 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th, 20th, 34th and 10th wards, all but the 10th being heavily black. It extends into the black south Cook County suburbs, taking in Blue Island, Dixmoor, Phoenix, Calumet City, Hazel Crest, Homewood, Flossmoor, Olympia Fields, Chicago Heights, Lansing and Park Forest -- all in Jackson's old district, where Obama got 90 percent of the vote in 2008, beating John McCain by 262,750-28,748. Jackson was unopposed for renomination in 2010, and he was reelected with 80.5 percent of the vote, down from 89 percent in 2008.

In Will and Kankakee counties, Halvorson's base, she beat Republican Marty Ozinga in 2008 by 51,793 votes. Kinzinger won those counties in 2010 by 15,885 votes, a huge turnaround, casting doubt on Halvorson's electability.

In 2008, with Democratic primary turnout elevated due to the Obama-Clinton contest, 149,750 people voted in the old 2nd District and 74,194 voted in the old 11th District. Turnout in the new 2nd District on March 20 will be about 120,000, of which roughly 80,000 will be in Cook County. To score an upset, Halvorson needs 80 percent of the 40,000 Kane-Will County vote (30,000), and 38 percent of the 80,000 Cook County vote (30,000-plus).

My prediction: Both candidates are judgmentally challenged. Halvorson has absolutely no appeal to black voters, nor any organization in black areas, but the "disgust factor," combined with the black politicians' anti-Jesse efforts, will make her the winner. Numerous South Side Chicago black politicians, most notably Alderman Anthony Beale (9th), covet Jackson's seat. Should Halvorson win, they feel she'll be beatable in 2014.

Jackson will cling to Obama, but the weight of his poor judgment, combined with a lack of Democratic organization support in Chicago, will be fatal. In a turnout of 120,000, Halvorson will win by 2,000 votes. That will make a lot of people happy.