January 4, 2012
WALSH HAS "WIN-WIN' SITUATION IN 8TH DISTRICT RACE
ANALYSIS & OPINION BY RUSS STEWART
You read it here first: Bombastic U.S. Representative Joe Walsh (R-8), the Tea Party's fervent cause celebre and the liberals' bete noire, will run for either Illinois governor or U.S. senator in 2014.
The Yellow Brick Road to statewide office begins in the newly created 8th U.S. House District, nestled in Chicago's west and northwest suburbs, where Walsh has opted to run for a second term in 2012. "I've done everything I can to reverse the failed polices of Obama and Pelosi," Walsh said in his announcement.
Unfortunately for Walsh, Barack Obama got 62 percent of the vote in the district in 2008, so a "bashing Barack" strategy is not the path to victory. But that matters not. Walsh will raise and spend nearly $5 million, saturate the Chicago media market and make the contest a referendum on Obama, while the Democrats will spend upwards of $4 million demonizing Walsh.
By campaigns' end, win or lose, Walsh will have phenomenal name recognition, a nationwide donor base and the groundwork laid for a statewide bid.
In 2010 the unknown Walsh upset complacent incumbent Democrat Melissa Bean by a minuscule 290 votes in the McHenry County-based 8th District. In the 2011 remap, Springfield Democrats disemboweled the district, putting Walsh in the new 14th District with fellow Republican Randy Hultgren and sculpting a new Democratic-friendly 8th District designed to elect Tammy Duckworth. The voluble and controversial Walsh had two choices.
Option One was to run for renomination in the 14th District, solidly Republican turf containing about 40 percent of his old district but adding territory from Kendall, Kane and DeKalb counties plus a small slice of DuPage County. It contains about 40 percent of Hultgren's old 14th District, where he defeated incumbent Democrat Bill Foster by 13,724 votes in 2010.
According to campaign disclosure filings, Walsh raised $758,749 during 2011, and he had $456,058 cash on hand as of Sept. 30. The bland but equally conservative Hultgren, who aspires to a lifetime career in the House, raised $644,887 and had cash on hand of $275,810. A primary would have been nasty, negative and expensive, with each contender spending $1 million.
Whatever the outcome, Walsh would have made serious enemies, both in Illinois and in Washington, D.C. He would have squandered $2 million in Republican resources which could have been spent elsewhere. Having promised to serve only three terms, Walsh would be leaving the seat open in 2016, and if he lost, his career would be over.
Option Two was to run in the 8th District, which contains barely 25 percent of his current district, primarily in the Carpentersville, West Dundee, Barrington and Elgin area in Kane County. Walsh's McHenry home is in the 14th District.
Democratic mapmakers drew the district from York Road in Cook County west to Elgin, bisected by Interstate 90. It contains Wheeling, Rolling Meadows, Hoffman Estates and Barrington on the north and Elk Grove, Schaumburg, Streamwood, Hanover Park, Bartlett and Roselle on the south. It also covers the area to the south in north and east DuPage County, including Bloomingdale, Glendale Heights, Itasca, Villa Park, Elmhurst, Lombard and parts of Addison, Bensenville, Wood Dale and Oakbrook Terrace. Its population is 15 to 20 percent Hispanic, many of whom are not citizens, about 5 percent Asian, 5 percent Indian and Pakistani, 2 percent black and the remaining 68 to 73 percent white.
"Walsh is a polarizing and divisive figure," said Mike Murray, a media consultant to Raja Krishnamoorthi, a Democratic candidate for the seat. "This is a Democratic, pro-Obama district. He can't win." Duckworth, who lost a 2006 congressional bid in the old DuPage County-based 6th District to Republican Peter Roskam by 4,810 votes, is already touting herself as "running to replace the Tea Party's Joe Walsh," saying that "Walsh's antics won't solve the country's economic crisis." Of course, neither Democrat blames Obama for the economic crisis.
Both Democrats are closely tied to the president. Krishnamoorthi was a policy director and advisor to Obama in his 2004 Illinois Senate campaign, and he worked in Obama's 2008 presidential effort. Duckworth endorsed Obama early in the 2008 presidential race, and she was picked to be an assistant secretary in the Department of Veterans Affairs when Obama won the presidency. "They're both 'Obamacrats' and Walsh isn't," said one Republican politician. "If Walsh can frame the race as pro- and anti-Obama, and if Obama is unpopular in November, Walsh could win."
That argument was utilized by Republican House Speaker John Boehner, who reportedly promised Walsh $3.5 million if he ran in the 8th District rather than the 14th District. So Walsh has a win-win situation. He is guaranteed an "Obamacrat" opponent, which means that his Tea Party backers will open their wallets. With $5 million, Walsh will inundate the Chicago media market, portraying himself as the anti-Obama candidate. "If you think Obama has been a competent president, then vote for my opponent," will be his theme. Whoever wins the March 20 Democratic primary, whether Duckworth or Krishnamoorthi, will respond by attacking Walsh and highlighting his messy divorce proceedings, in which he has been found to owe more than $100,000 in child support. "He's an absolute hypocrite," Murray said. Nevertheless, the Democratic nominee will be an "Obama stooge" if elected, voting for the Obama agenda in 2013-14, presuming Obama is reelected.
All this imminent 2012 negativity will be, to coin an expression, a "positivity" for Walsh. At present, Walsh is a peripheral figure, beloved by Tea Party adherents and detested by liberals and Democrats.
If Walsh had run against Hultgren and lost, he would have been dismissed as an aberration. If he won, he'd have estranged a lot Hultgren backers. Whatever the outcome, Walsh's visibility would have evaporated in March. By running in the 8th District, however, he has 10 months to raise money, position himself, hype himself as the anti-Obama candidate, and become a Republican hero. If he is defeated, Walsh will have deniability. He can claim that he fought the "good fight" against the Democrats' evil remapping machinations and that he lost not because he was flawed but because the Democrats made the district so inhospitable that no Republican could triumph. Should Walsh win, he will be a giant and the Republicans' hottest commodity in Illinois.
"Government is too big, and our national debt is unconscionable," Walsh said in his announcement. "I will stand up to big government." That's red meat for the Republican base, which assures him at least 45 percent of the 8th District vote in November. However, the Obama vote will be around 55 percent, and Walsh can expect few Obama backers to vote for him. Realistically, a Walsh win is unlikely, but he won't lose by much.
For 2014, the political environment is critical. If Obama wins but the economy doesn't rebound, it will be a huge Republican year. Governor Pat Quinn and U.S. Senator Dick Durbin will be at major risk. However, if a Republican wins the presidency in 2012 and the economy does not subsequently recover, 2014 will be a disastrous Republican year, like 2006 and 2008.
The 2014 Republican field for governor includes state Senators Bill Brady (who lost to Quinn in 2010) and Kirk Dillard (who lost to Brady in the 2010 primary), state Treasurer Dan Rutherford and possibly Jim Oberweis, who is seeking a state Senate seat in 2012. That makes Walsh's prospects chancy. But if he challenged for the U.S. Senate seat held by Durbin, an Obama robot as the Democrats' majority whip, Walsh would be a lock for the Republican nomination.
The 2012 Democratic primary in the 8th District promises to be a delicate dance for Krishnamoorthi, a former deputy state treasurer who was born in India and who almost won the Democratic nomination for state comptroller in 2010, getting 45.7 percent of the vote and losing by just 8,709 votes. Duckworth, an Army helicopter pilot who lost both her lower legs in a crash in the Iraq War, has substantial residual name recognition from her 2006 race, and as a woman of Asian descent, she has both gender and ethnic appeal. She has been endorsed by Durbin, and she is being advised by David Axelrod, Obama's former chief of staff. Personal attacks on her will backfire.
How does Krishnamoorthi beat her? "Career politician" will be the code word. "Raja has experience creating jobs" while Duckworth "only has experience in government," Murray said. Krishnamoorthi had raised a hefty $726,184 through Sept. 30, to $478,354 for Duckworth. The district has approximately 713,000 residents, but only 35,000 to 40,000 will vote in the Democratic primary. Every Democratic household will be buried with mail.
Geography is key. Krishnamoorthi, of Hoffman Estates, has the support of most Cook County Democratic officials. The area was not in the old 6th District, so Duckworth is not well known there. Krishnamoorthi also is endorsed by the DuPage County Democratic chairman.
Walsh's entry changes the primary's focus. He is the demon. Both Democrats will proclaim that they are best positioned to beat him and to carry on the Obama agenda. Duckworth has the edge, just barely, in both the primary and election, but the real winner will be Joe Walsh.