November 2, 2011
BLACK ALDERMEN UNVEIL "NO-RETROGRESSION" WARD REMAP -- NO LOSS DESPITE BLACK POPULATION LOSS

ANALYSIS & OPINION BY RUSS STEWART

There's a whole lot of bleaching, tinting, peeling, stripping, scrubbing and packing going on in City Hall, and it's not happening in the basement hair-styling salon.

And, after Dec. 1, there won't be a whole lot of lovin' on the second floor, when what is cryptically known as the "Aldermanic Job Security Act" is unveiled. None of the city's 50 aldermen relishes the prospect of unemployment, but the soon-to-be-unveiled remap of Chicago's wards will put up to a dozen aldermen in the proverbial breadline. "There'll be a lot of unhappiness," said one City Council Rules Committee staffer.

Already, the yelling, yapping and yelping has commenced. The latest roar was from newly elected Alderman Nick Sposato (36th). The City Council Black Caucus, made up of 19 black aldermen in 20 black-majority wards, is adamant that there be no diminution of their number despite the fact that the 2010 census showed the city's black population down by 17 percent since 2000. That's 181,453 fewer black residents, which should mean three fewer black-majority wards.

Alderman Howard Brookins (21st), the caucus chairman, said that the federal Civil Rights Act and the Voting Rights Act mandate "non-retrogression." "There cannot be any fewer black-majority wards than we have now," Brookins said.

Three black aldermen will not go quietly into the night. The caucus map cleverly tints, packs and scrubs, creating 20 wards with at least a 50 percent black voting population. On the South Side, the caucus designed some wards with a Hispanic population as high as 45 percent. "They (Hispanics) don't vote," said one black politician. "We can win them."

It is a rule of thumb that a Hispanic "super-majority" ward population of 66 percent is required to elect a Hispanic alderman. "We created 19 black and 13 Hispanic wards," stressed Brookins. "We intend to go to court if necessary."

On the North Side, to protect Alderman Deborah Graham (29th), whose ward has an exploding Hispanic population, the caucus map packed the Hispanics from the 29th Ward and the adjacent 37th Ward, represented by Alderman Emma Mitts, into a new ward. To accomplish that convoluted goal, Graham's ward, which extends along Austin Avenue from Roosevelt Road to North Avenue, was awarded most of Galewood in the 36th Ward, including Sposato's home precinct. Interestingly, the Galewood precinct where former alderman Bill Banks resides, as well as that of new Democratic Committeeman Larry Andolino, were kept in a new 36th Ward, which has to shed 7,000 residents.

"That will never happen," Sposato promised. "Galewood will not be divided. The (caucus) map will not pass."

Since Sposato defeated Banks' hand-picked successor as alderman, John Rice, and since Sposato is running against Banks' hand-picked successor as Democratic committeeman, Andolino, it is presumed that the caucus is counting on white aldermen, who have residual ties to Banks, to save Graham by sticking it to Sposato. Brookins said that that's not true. "Our map only focused on black wards," he said. "The other wards are not our concern."

Since the city's population shrank by 208,734 in the past decade, the size of each ward contracted from an average of 58,000 to 54,000. Roughly 35 percent of the city's population of 2,695,598 are white (944,000), 32 percent are black (890,000) and 32 percent are Hispanic (863,000). That should equate to 17 white aldermen, 16 or 17 black aldermen and 16 Hispanic aldermen. The current breakdown is 23/19/8. Obviously, Hispanics want more Hispanic-majority wards, at the expense of white aldermen; four powerful white aldermen, Ed Burke (14th), Dick Mell (33rd), Marty Quinn (13th) and John Pope (10th), have Hispanic majorities in their wards, but none is inclined to quit, nor will any be defeated any time soon.

The south end of the Northwest Side 38th Ward also has a large Hispanic concentration, and it could be the hub of a new Hispanic ward, encompassing Hispanics now in the 29th and 37th wards. That means that 38th Ward Alderman Tim Cullerton would be in the 45th Ward.

On the South Side, Hispanic population growth has spread into the black-majority 15th and 18th wards. The caucus map tinkers with area ward boundaries, increasing the Hispanic population in the 18th Ward, now held by Alderman Lona Lane, to 45 percent. The population is sufficient to sustain only 12 of the 14 black-majority wards south of the Loop to the city limits. The wards with the largest population growth are the North Loop 42nd and the South Loop 2nd, both with white aldermen.

Half of the Far Southwest Side 19th Ward is cannibalized and attached to the adjacent black 18th, 21st and 34th wards, leaving the white half hanging. Since white committeemen in the 11th (John Daley), 19th (Matt O'Shea), 13th (Mike Madigan) and 23rd (Bill Lipinski) wards will not let their domains be cannibalized, at least two black South Siders and one black West Sider will be shown the door.

The City Council Rules Committee, chaired by Mell, is working up a map which will protect almost all white aldermen and create a few new Hispanic wards. Under council requirements, 26 votes are needed for passage. If that majority is secured, but fewer than 40 votes, a referendum will be placed on the ballot next March, allowing voters to accept or reject it. Mell, the master manipulator, will have all the white and Hispanic aldermen on board, which guarantees 31 votes. Expect a hue and cry of "racism" in the black community.

An interesting subtext to the remap squabble is ward Democratic committeeman races, which will be on the March 20, 2012, primary ballot. As city and county patronage has evaporated, and as media ads and direct mail have replaced precinct captains, the ward post has become inconsequential and largely ceremonial, but alderman covet the committeeman's job in order to preempt future opposition. In 2011 longtime committeemen and aldermen in the 45th Ward (Pat Levar), 36th Ward (Banks) and 47th Ward (Gene Schulter) had insufficient heft to elect their aldermanic successors.

The filing period for committeeman is Nov. 28 to Dec. 5, and 500 to 800 signatures are required to get on the ballot. The problem is that filing will occur before the new ward map is unveiled and before it is approved (if at all). The legal question: Will the 2010 election be held in the existing wards, where aldermen were elected in 2011 for the term through 2015, or in the new wards, where some candidates may no longer live?

Some election law experts expect that a federal lawsuit will be filed and that the committeeman elections will be delayed until November.

Here's an early look at developing committeeman contests:

32nd Ward: In a ward filled with upscale, contrarian independents, being a committeeman is almost ghastly. Nevertheless, incumbent John Fritchey, who is a county commissioner, is being challenged by Alderman Scott Waguespack, whom he supported in 2007 but not in 2011, when he supposedly was neutral. "It's a grudge match," said one ward activist. "They both detest each other."

Waguespack, who was reelected in 2011, got 8,845 votes (65.8 percent of the total cast) in a turnout of 13,437. He is better known than Fritchey, who was a state representative for 12 years. "He got a free pass in 2011," claimed one Fritchey supporter. "It was a referendum on his ward record." In 2012, the source predicted, turnout will be under 7,000 -- "mostly committed Democrats who understand that Waguespack is only running to serve himself, not the party."

A cardinal rule: Never run for a less significant or insignificant office if you're not assured of winning. Waguespack is testing that rule.

36th Ward: Having trounced the Banks machine, there is little doubt that Sposato will do likewise to Andolino. Turnout in the 2011 runoff was 10,074, and Sposato got 5,651 votes (56.1 percent of the total). Much of the Sposato vote was anti-Banks and anti-Rice. Banks is gone, along with his money and manpower. Andolino fervently hopes that Rice's 4,423 votes are the enduring Banks machine base.

The March turnout will be under 7,000. Sposato, who's still on his political honeymoon, can't lose.

1st Ward: Politicians must pick their fights carefully. Alderman Proco Joe Moreno, who was appointed to replace Manny Flores in 2010, has been a veritable Energizer Bunny. He was elected to a full term in 2011 with 74 percent of the vote. The incumbent Democratic committeeman is Jesse Juarez, an ally of Flores and a protege of Joe Berrios, the county Democratic chairman and assessor and the 31st Ward committeeman.

Moreno is challenging Juarez. Will Berrios come to his rescue? Big Joe could certainly flood the ward with precinct workers and inundate the mailboxes with propaganda, but Juarez is not in the same league as Moreno, and a sizable Moreno win would transform him in a celebrity "giant killer," enhancing his prospects for a congressional seat. Advice to Berrios: Stay out.

47th Ward: Better to fade away than be carried away. Schulter, the ward's 36-year alderman, botched his 2011 succession, and Ameya Pawar, a 31-year-old unknown, was elected. If Schulter runs in 2012, Pawar will field an opponent. A truce emerged: Longtime lobbyist Paul Rosenfeld, a "neutral" technician, will be the committeeman, and Schulter will fade away.