August 17, 2011
POLITICIANS MUST DECIDE: TO RUN OR NOT TO RUN? AND WHERE?
ANALYSIS & OPINION BY RUSS STEWART
It's a Shakespearian quandary for politicians throughout Illinois: To run or not to run? And that is not the only question. Where to run? How much work and money will have to be expended? What's the caliber of opposition?
In just a few weeks, on Sept. 6, the 90-day nominating petition circulation period begins. Even though signature requirements are nominal -- 500 to 3,000 for U.S. representative and 1,000 to 2,000 for state legislator -- serious candidates will have their workers on the street right after Labor Day, will be campaigning door-to-door themselves, and will commence stockpiling campaign cash.
The filing period is Nov. 28 to Dec. 5. Those who dawdle and vacillate will be at a severe disadvantage.
The subtext to this drama is the Illinois General Assembly's remap of state legislative and congressional districts, which were gerrymandered by the majority Democrats to favor the Democrats. Lawsuits challenging both maps are pending.
Due to population loss, Illinois' 19-member congressional delegation, which now is 11-8 Republican, will shrink by one, and the Democrats' remap cannibalized, eviscerated and marginalized the districts of 10 Republican incumbents: Joe Walsh (R-8), Randy Hultgren (R-14), Bob Dold (R-10), Adam Kinzinger (R-11), Judy Biggert (R-13), Aaron Schock (R-18), Tim Johnson (R-15), John Shimkus (R-19), Bobby Schilling (R-17) and Don Manzullo (R-16). The Democrats mapped the homes of Walsh (North Barrington) and Hultgren (Winfield), Kinzinger (Manteno) and Manzullo (Rockford suburbs), and Johnson (Urbana) and Shimkus (Collinsville) into the same districts, placed the Hinsdale home of Biggert into Mike Quigley's (D-5) Chicago district and the Kenilworth home of Dold into Jan Schakowsky's (D-9) Evanston-based district, redrew the districts of Schilling (Rock Island) and Schock (Peoria) to make them more Democratic, and created two new Democratic-leaning districts in the Cook County suburbs and exurbs. Only Peter Roskam (R-6) of DuPage County was given a safe Republican district.
Illinois' delegation likely will be 11-7 Democratic after 2012.
On the Northwest Side and in the close-in suburbs, the districts of state Representatives Joe Lyons (D-19), Mike McAuliffe (R-20), Skip Saviano (R-77), Camille Lilly (D-78) and Rosemary Mulligan (R-65) were substantially altered, not to their benefit.
Lyons may retire, and 45th Ward aldermanic loser Marina Faz-Huppert covets his seat. Lyons' new district encompasses the 45th and 36th wards, where once-powerful Democratic ward organizations have collapsed. Saviano, whose base is Elmwood Park, was pushed far out into DuPage County, and his district was made almost half Hispanic. McAuliffe's district, previously anchored by the 41st, 38th and 36th wards, is now half suburban, taking in territory from the districts of Mulligan and Saviano. Mulligan lost part of Park Ridge to McAuliffe, and she will face Des Plaines Mayor Marty Moylan in the new 55th District, which stretches west to Elk Grove.
Lilly, who lives in the 36th Ward, was appointed in mid-2010. She replaced Deborah Graham, who was named 29th Ward alderman after incumbent Ike Carothers pleaded guilty to federal charges. Graham was elected to a full term in 2011 in her Austin ward, which has a growing Hispanic population. Lilly, who is black, is in a new district which shrank from 40 percent black to less than 25 percent. She will be opposed in the 2012 Democratic primary by Mike Nardello, the director of finance and administration for the Chicago Department of Aging, an ally of new 36th Ward Alderman Nick Sposato.
Here's an early analysis of developing contests:
10th U.S. House District: This district has evolved from east-west North Shore (Wilmette to Palatine) to north-south (Waukegan to Glenview). Dold won the seat of now-Senator Mark Kirk in 2010 over Democrat Dan Seals by 4,651 votes, getting 51.1 percent of the vote and carrying the Cook County portion of the district by 10,321 votes but losing Lake County by 5,670 votes. The remap puts Palatine and the pro-Republican west end of the existing district into Roskam's 6th District, appends Kenilworth and Wilmette onto Schakowsky's district, and adds the east end of Walsh's district (Grayslake, Libertyville, Mundelein, Round Lake). The new district is about 75 percent in Lake County.
Dold caught a break when state Senator Susan Garrett (D-29) of Lake Forest opted out of politics, not running for reelection or for Congress. Neither of the 2012 Democratic aspirants, Brad Schneider, a Deerfield businessman, or Ilya Sheyman, a 25-year-old national mobilization director for the liberal MoveOn.org, are formidable. Dold raised $855,815 through June. Outlook: Slight edge to Dold.
8th U.S. House District: Cherry-picking all the Democratic and Hispanic areas from Roskam's and Dold's districts, the new 8th District stretches from Park Ridge to Elgin, taking in all the suburbs between roughly Golf Road and North Avenue, including Des Plaines, Wheeling, Mount Prospect, Schaumburg, Streamwood, Roselle, Carpentersville, Bensenville, Wood Dale, Addison, Elk Grove, Elmhurst, Lombard and Downers Grove. Two Democrats have announced: Tammy Duckworth, a 2006 loser to Roskam and the just-resigned assistant secretary of the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs, and former state deputy treasurer Raj Krishnamoorthi. Unless Walsh opts to run here, a Democrat will win the seat.
14th U.S. House District: Walsh, a rabid and visible Tea Party adherent, upset Democrat Melissa Bean in the old 8th District in 2010 by 290 votes. The Chicago Sun-Times recently ran an article, which Walsh termed a "hit piece," alleging that he owed $117,000 in back child support, which Walsh denied. During the debt ceiling debate, Walsh's implacable opposition to any increase earned him nightly sound bites on Fox News and other cable networks.
The new 14th District, which will elect a Republican, takes in the north quarter of Lake County, all of McHenry and Boone counties, and runs south through Kane, DeKalb, LaSalle, Kendall and a slice of DuPage counties to Interstate 80, basically west of Illinois Route 47. Hultgren's base is in DuPage, and he has also been a Tea Party supporter, opposing the debt hike. Roughly half of each incumbent's old district is in the new 14th, with LaSalle drawn from the old 11th District. Outlook: Hultgren has more Republican organizational support, but Walsh has more visibility and money. Slight edge to Hultgren.
16th U.S. House District: Manzullo, a low-key conservative elected in 1992, is secure in his district, which extends along the Illinois border from Belvidere to Galena, running south to Dixon and Sterling. Now it extends from Rockford to Kankakee, following Interstate 39 to Ottawa and Streator, and east to Kankakee and the Indiana border. Kinzinger, who walloped incumbent Democrat Debbie Halvorson in 2010 by 33,089 votes, getting 57.8 percent of the vote, represents more than half the new territory, and, at age 33, he has the energy to win. Outlook: Manzullo will have plenty of money, but Kinzinger has a generational and geographic edge.
11th U.S. House District: Democrat Bill Foster of Batavia won an upset victory in early 2008 for the seat of former Republican U.S. House Speaker Dennis Hastert, in a district which ran from Kendall County to close to the Mississippi River. Foster lost to Hultgren in 2010 by 13,724 votes, getting 48.6 percent of the vote. The new district cobbles together all of the area's predominantly Hispanic precincts in Aurora, Joliet and Bolingbrook, plus liberal Naperville. Biggert's Hinsdale home is just outside the district, which encompasses about a third of her old 13th District. Outlook: Unless Biggert moves and runs, Foster will win the seat.
5th U.S. House District: Incumbent Democrat Mike Quigley has been a liberal, pro-Obama vote in Washington. He was elected to a second term in 2010 with 70.6 percent of the vote. Under the remap, his Chicago district now arcs through the western suburbs to Hinsdale and includes Biggert's home. It extends from Lake Street and Ashland Avenue north through the Lakefront 42nd, 43rd, 46th and 48th wards, west through the 47th, 40th, 39th, 45th and 41st wards, to the west suburbs of Harwood Heights, Norridge, Rosemont, Schiller Park, Franklin Park, Northlake, west Elmwood Park, and south, east of Illinois Route 83, to Hinsdale. "It's a 60-40 Democratic district," said Republican Dan Schmitt, who is running for the seat. "A Republican can win."
Locally, the Lilly-Nardello race shapes up as a sleeper. Lilly, a former "political liaison" for Loretto Hospital, was appointed to the seat in 2010, has never run a contested race, and is totally unknown. The new 78th District is majority white. Most of the predominantly black 29th and 37th wards, east of Harlem Avenue, are out of the district. It takes in 10 precincts in the 36th Ward, where Nardello and Lilly reside, plus Oak Park, River Forest, Elmwood Park, River Grove, Franklin Park and Northlake. Lilly is dependent on state Senator Don Harmon, the Oak Park Township Democratic committeeman. If he doesn't carry Lilly in Oak Park with 75 percent of the vote, Nardello wins.
In the 45th Ward, Democratic Committeeman Pat Levar's organization is a shambles. Lyons, a 16-year state representative, denies that he will retire. As the county director of manpower and training since the 1970s, he can retire with two hefty pensions. Lyons will have to work hard to win, spending gobs of money and building his own precinct organization in the 45th and 36th wards.