July 6, 2011
OBAMA NOT ASSURED OF WINNING SECOND TERM
ANALYSIS & OPINION BY RUSS STEWART
Can Barack Obama lose in 2012? It depends not on the Republican nominee, but rather on whether Obama carries four of seven key states: Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan, with a combined 121 electoral votes.
Also, critically, whether he triumphs in those states depends on an economic rebound and a 2008-level turnout by pro-Obama cultural liberals and minorities.
Despite Republican presidential wins in 2000 and 2004, the disgraced John Edwards was correct when he talked about the "Two Americas" in 2004. He meant rich and poor, but in actuality the fissure is based on culture: Secular white liberals, combined with racial minorities, constitute a majority on the East Coast and West Coast and a near-majority in the Illinois-to-Pennsylvania Rust Belt, and they vote heavily Democratic. Evangelical conservatives and entrepreneurs constitute a majority in the South, the Plains and the West, and they vote heavily Republican.
The nationwide Republican base is marginally eclipsed by the Democratic base. John McCain got 2,092,366 fewer votes in 2008 than George Bush got in 2004, but Obama got 10,920,106 more votes than John Kerry got.
As the 2012 campaign begins, Obama is assured of victory in California, New York, Oregon, Washington, Hawaii, Colorado, Illinois, Minnesota, D.C., Massachusetts, Vermont, Maine, Connecticut, Maryland, Delaware and Rhode Island, plus the District of Columbia, for a total of 197 electoral votes, 73 shy of a majority.
The Republican nominee, presumably not an off-the-wall right-winger such as Ron Paul, Sarah Palin or Michele Bachmann, is assured of victory in Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, Wyoming, Montana, South Dakota, North Dakota, Idaho, Utah, Arizona, Alaska, Missouri, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, Tennessee, Kentucky, Indiana and West Virginia, for a total of 192 electoral votes, 78 shy of a majority.
New Hampshire, New Mexico, Nevada and Iowa, with 21 electoral votes, are toss-ups.
Here's the arithmetic of the past three elections:
Republican George Bush won the presidency in 2000 due to a 537-vote victory in Florida out of 5,963,110 votes cast, getting 539,947 fewer votes than Al Gore nationally. Bush won 30 states, while Gore won 20 and District of Columbia, in a turnout of 101,454,341, and he had one more electoral vote than the 270 required. Bush won Florida, Virginia, Ohio and North Carolina.
Bush won a second term in 2004 by 2,912,497 votes, carrying 31 states, to 19 states and the District of Columbia for John Kerry, in a turnout of 122,286,610. He got 286 electoral votes, and he would have lost had he not carried Ohio, with 20 electoral votes, by a 118,599-vote margin. Florida, Virginia and North Carolina again backed Bush.
In 2008, which Democratic strategist James Carville proclaimed to be a "realigning election" heralding "40 years of Democratic dominance," Obama thrashed McCain by 9,549,975 votes in a turnout of 129,446,455, carrying 27 states. Florida, Ohio, Michigan, Virginia, Wisconsin and North Carolina, with 89 electoral votes, went for Obama, who had a total of 372 electoral votes, 102 more than needed. He also surprisingly won Indiana.
Obama won by margins of 14,177 votes in North Carolina, 28,391 votes in Indiana, 234,527 votes in Virginia, 236,450 votes in Florida, 262,224 votes in Ohio, 414,818 votes in Wisconsin, 620,478 votes in Pennsylvania and 823,940 votes in Michigan.
Yet, in 2010, Republicans won state legislative majorities in every one of those states except Virginia (which has elections in 2013), and each of those states except North Carolina has a Republican governor. So which election was the aberration?
From a Republican perspective, Obama's sizable 2008 victory was predicated upon Bush fatigue, the financial industry bailout, unresolved foreign wars, and Obama's charisma and "change we need" mantra. That will not be duplicated in 2012. From a Democratic perspective, Obama's candidacy energized a dormant section of the Democratic coalition, namely, younger liberals, and prompted a huge black and Hispanic turnout. In 2012 Obama will have to re-energize his base because of what he's done, not what he's promised.
Interestingly, a lot of national Republicans are ambivalent about the prospect of recapturing the presidency and both houses of Congress in 2012. They prefer to keep Obama in the White House until 2016, allow the stigma of the recession to attach itself firmly to the Democrats, win control of the U.S. Senate and keep control of the U.S. House in 2012 -- thereby checkmating Obama's liberal impulses -- and then ride another anti-Obama wave in 2014.
By 2016 the Republican brand will have been rehabilitated, Bush will be forgotten, Obama fatigue will be epidemic, and the Republicans will be ready to govern. In addition, four years hence, a credible presidential contender surely will emerge from the current crop of budget-slashing Republican governors -- Chris Christie of New Jersey, Bob McDonnell of Virginia, Scott Walker of Wisconsin, John Kasich of Ohio, Rick Snyder of Michigan, Rick Scott of Florida and Bobby Jindal of Louisiana. Jindal and Christie would be the most plausible candidates.
My early prediction: The pro-Obama minority vote will remain steadfast, but if Virginia, North Carolina, Indiana, Ohio and Florida go Republican for a candidate such as Mitt Romney, it's over. Those states have 88 electoral votes, which added to the Republican base of 192 equals 280 votes, or 10 more than needed. For a second term, Obama must win either Florida or Ohio.
Going into 2012, the Republicans have a 242-193 majority in the U.S. House, and they need to gain four seats to take the U.S. Senate, which is now 53-47 Democratic.
Of the 32 Senate seats in play, the Democrats hold 20, the Republicans hold 10, and there are two Democratic-leaning independents. Five Democrats and three Republicans are retiring, creating eight "open" seats: Democratic seats in Connecticut, Wisconsin, North Dakota, Virginia and Hawaii and Republican seats in Texas, Arizona and Nevada.
The early line is that the Republicans will win in Texas, Arizona and North Dakota and that they have at least a 50/50 chance in all other races except Connecticut.
Democratic incumbents in Nebraska, Missouri and Montana are at serious risk, as Obama promises to be a drag in each state. Incumbents in Ohio, Michigan and Florida are only slightly favored. Persistent unemployment in those states will be a detriment. Republican senators in Indiana and Utah face Tea Party challenges in the primary, and a Democrat could prevail if the Tea Party candidate is nominated.
My early prediction: the Republicans will gain a net of six Senate seats, for a 53-47 majority.
In the U.S. House, cultural trends favor continued Republican hegemony, primarily because of extraordinary Republican dominance in the South. In the 11 states of the old Confederacy, plus Kentucky, Oklahoma and West Virginia, the Republicans had an 82-63 edge in congressmen in 2008. After 2010 it was 104-41, a gain of 22 seats. Of the 242 Republicans in the House, 43 percent are white Southern conservatives. In 1962 there were but 15 Republicans from the South.
The reason is primarily cultural: For generations, rural southerners were habitually Democratic, intensely religious, distrustful of cities and concentrations of power, pro-gun rights, anti-civil rights, and hostile to the Republicans. From the 1950s onward, Republican growth areas were in the suburbs of the larger cities, among "country club" whites. The coalition of blacks in the cities and rural whites kept Democrats in power.
That coalition began to erode under Ronald Reagan, accelerated under Bill Clinton, and collapsed under Obama. The faces of the Democratic Party became Obama, Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reid and Hillary Clinton, and the party's message became gun control, abortion rights, gay rights, excessive spending and health care. After the 2010 election, only 21 of the South's 123 white congressmen were Democrats. Of the 41 Democrats, 15 were black and five were Hispanic. Of the 104 Republicans, two were black and four were Hispanic. In Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana and South Carolina, the only remaining Democrat in the congressional delegation was black. Texas' delegation was 23-9 Republican, and Florida's was 19-6.
The most astounding trend was in the state legislatures. The Republicans gained 153 state legislative seats in 2010, giving them control of 22 of 26 Southern chambers, with an 873-643 margin in the state Houses and a 308-233 margin in the state Senates. In most states, every rural area is now represented by a Republican, and the Democrats' only bulwark is cities, upscale suburbs and South Texas.
The Democrats' counterbalance is New England, New York and the West Coast. After the 2008 election, the Democrats held a 64-10 congressional majority on the East Coast and a 46-23 majority on the West Coast, for a 110-33 edge. In 2010 the Republicans gained eight seats in the East and none in the West.
My early prediction: Pelosi covets a return to the speakership, which requires a 24-seat Democratic gain. That won't happen. If turnout in 2012 approximates that of 2008, the Democrats will oust a few 2010 Republican winners, but Obama has proven to be a polarizing president, which means the anti-Obama vote will spike markedly from 2008, aiding all Republicans. The 2013-14 House will be 245-190 Republican.