June 15, 2011
"NO WHITES WIN" IN COOK COUNTY'S 2012 DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

ANALYSIS & OPINION BY RUSS STEWART

"No Whites Win." That, in effect, is the reality of 2012 Democratic politics in Cook County.

As candidate fields form in contests for state's attorney, recorder of deeds, clerk of court and three Metropolitan Water Reclamation District commissioners, white contenders must be cognizant of this sobering fact: Minority voters are a majority of Democratic primary voters.

If black and Hispanic voters coalesce behind one candidate, and if he or she has appeal to white liberals, their candidate easily wins. A white candidate can win only if two or more minority candidates run.

According to Democratic sources, here's the early lineup: An as yet undetermined black candidate versus Hispanic incumbent State's Attorney Anita Alvarez. Two black candidates -- Alderman Leslie Hairston versus incumbent Dorothy Brown -- for clerk. Two black candidates -- state Representatives Karen Yarbrough and Al Riley -- for recorder. And water district President Terry O'Brien, who is white, on the ropes after his disastrous 2010 campaign for Cook County Board president, with a black candidate and two liberal white candidates threatening his tenure.

When Barack Obama faced Hillary Clinton in the 2008 primary, turnout was a huge 1,079,079, with 635,272 in Chicago and 443,807 in the 30 suburban townships. Turnout in Chicago's 20 black-majority wards was 300,912, 47.3 percent of the citywide total, and it was 84,580, or 13.3 percent of the total, in the 11 Hispanic-majority wards, making non-white voters roughly 60 percent of the city Democratic primary electorate.

The six predominantly black townships in the suburbs -- Bloom, Bremen, Rich, Calumet and Thornton in the south and Proviso in the west -- cast 142,653 votes. Five other townships -- Palos, Oak Park, Evanston, Lemont and Worth -- have black populations of 30 to 45 percent, and they cast 77,013 votes, of which roughly half (38,506) were by black voters. That amounts to a suburban Democratic black electorate of about 181,159, or 41 percent.

Cicero and Berwyn townships are Hispanic-majority, and they cast 14,442 votes in 2008, but other townships, such as Niles, Wheeling, Elk Grove, Worth and Stickney, also have large Hispanic populations. Around 30,000 Hispanics vote in the suburbs (7 percent). The black and Hispanic portion of the suburban electorate is close to 48 percent.

That means non-whites cast approximately 611,000 votes, or 56 percent of the countywide Democratic vote.

Here's a snapshot of developing races:

State's Attorney: Alvarez won the six-candidate 2008 primary by just 9,946 votes, getting 25.8 percent of the votes cast and topping Alderman Tom Allen (24.8 percent), liberal county Commissioner Larry Suffredin (22.1 percent), Alderman Howard Brookins (18.1 percent), first assistant state's attorney Bob Milan (5.8 percent) and perennial black candidate Tommy Brewer (3.3 percent).

As chief deputy state's attorney, Alvarez touted her prosecutorial skills and promised to be "professional" -- as opposed to "political" -- in the job. Buoyed by $640,000 in funding from her husband, Dr. James Gomez, key South Side support from white politicians Ed Burke, Mike Madigan and John Daley (who supposedly were committed to Allen), and a respectable 20 percent showing in the predominantly black wards, where Brookins faltered, Alvarez scored an upset. She carried 16 wards and 10 townships, to the favored Allen's nine and 12, respectively. Allen carried the Northwest Side wards, plus the Southwest Side 19th and 23rd wards, and Suffredin won the Lakefront.

Alvarez kept her word: She has been apolitical. The rap on her is that she is abrupt, impersonal and thoroughly uninterested in pacifying various anti-Daley and pro-immigrant political interest groups. Alvarez "doesn't march to the tune of those who set the Democratic Party's agenda," said one key Democrat. "Why should she? She's a prosecutor. But she's made enemies."

Alvarez "will have a black primary opponent," predicted one Democratic insider. "They will field somebody. They are not pleased" with her. It won't be Brookins, however.

Rumors abound that Alvarez covets a federal judgeship, an appointment that would be made by Obama. The FBI vetted her more than 6 months ago, which is obligatory for federal appointees. In county politics, such chicanery as "file and quit" or "promise to file and not file" are standard operating procedure. Bill Lipinski passed off his congressional seat to his son after his nomination in 2004, and Sheriff Mike Sheahan failed to file in 2006, letting Tom Dart take the nomination by default.

In fact, Dart, who aborted a 2011 mayoral bid, is the obvious choice to replace Alvarez as the Democrats' state's attorney nominee should she go on the federal bench in 2012. The primary is next March. If she wins, she could be appointed before August, enabling the Democrats to pick Dart as the replacement.

A primary would be dicey for Alvarez. Three issues would dominate:

First, Hispanics led by U.S. Representative Luis Gutierrez (D-4), want "immigration reform" that would decriminalize 12 million illegal aliens, and Gutierrez demands that Alvarez' office not cooperate with the federal government to deport arrested illegals. Second, just 10 percent of the office's 890 prosecutors and 810 staffers are minorities -- the same as it was 4 years ago. Third, Alvarez dawdled in launching an investigation of the death of David Koschman, allegedly after he was punched by R.J. Vanecko, Rich Daley's nephew. She finally decided not to bring criminal charges.

After promising to be a reformer, Alvarez has been careful, cautious and timid, much like her predecessor, Dick Devine. She evokes no passion among liberals, no prideful fervor among fellow Hispanics, and no camaraderie among Democratic politicians.

 Clerk of court: Once deemed a rising star in county politics, Brown has progressively and stupidly squandered her cache of political capital. "She's incredibly beatable," said a Democratic insider, noting that Brown lost bids for Chicago mayor in 2007, getting just 20 percent of the vote, and for county board president in 2010, getting just 14.4 percent and topping Todd Stroger by 4,618 votes. Alderman Leslie Hairston (5th), a black South Sider who toyed with a 2011 mayoral race, is set to run.

As the manager of the county's court system, employing 2,300, Brown sits on a powder keg. The office is understaffed and overworked, and a missing file or an errant employee has the potential for scandal. Plus, with the American Federation of State County and Municipal Employees as the workers' bargaining agent, personnel issues are forever percolating. Brown got considerable publicity when her "jeans fund" was revealed: In exchange for a contribution to Brown's "office fund," employees could dress as they chose; the fund raised $40,000.

In addition, a half-dozen of Brown's "internal investigators" comprise her bodyguard detail, driving and escorting her to public events. Her political shelf life has long since expired, and Hairston will defeat her in a one-on-one primary, winning a majority among both white and black voters. However, rumor has it that Patti Jo Cullerton, the 38th Ward Democratic committeeman, may run. With one white candidate against two black candidates, Cullerton can win.

Recorder: According to Democratic insiders, incumbent Gene Moore will not seek a fourth term in 2012. Moore won't be missed. In the pantheon of county office holders, Moore is the most nondescript of an uninspiring bunch.

Moore caught a break in 2008 when his longtime nemesis, state Representative Karen Yarbrough, decided not to run for recorder, but beat him for Proviso Township committeeman. Moore, with the backing of white committeemen, then thrashed Alderman Ed Smith by 500,932-319,537. Yarbrough is in the 2012 race, with Smith's endorsement. Black Democratic committeemen from the south suburbs are coalescing behind Al Riley, an area legislator. It will be a geographical battle, with an edge to west suburbanite Yarbrough due to her gender, which will win support from liberal white voters. No white candidate is running.

Metropolitan Water Reclamation District: Better to say nothing and be thought a fool than to say something and prove it. That modified truism applies to ambitious office holders who cultivate the image of "political powerhouse": If you run and lose embarrassingly for another office, you prove you're not.

That's O'Brien's problem. First elected commissioner in 1988 and elected water district president in 1996 by a vote of the nine commissioners, O'Brien was perpetually boomed as a future mayor or board president. In 2010 he took the plunge and got a measly 131,896 votes (23 percent of the total) in the board president primary against three black candidates, Toni Preckwinkle (who got 50 percent), Brown (14.4 percent) and incumbent Stroger (13.6 percent). At least half the white vote broke for Preckwinkle.

  Along with O'Brien, Commissioners Debra Shore and Patricia Horton are facing nomination. Horton, who is black, saw her prospects evaporate when her mentor, Rickey Hendon, quit politics. Black committeemen will support Kari Steele, the daughter of a former alderman and judge, who finished fourth in 2010. Barbara Moore, the wife of 49th Ward Alderman Joe Moore who heads the ward's Green Corps organization, is generating support. Shore, aligned with the North Shore "machine," run by U.S. Representative Jan Schakowsky and husband, Bob Creamer, has strong ties to gays, environmentalists and feminists, and she will run first, as she did in 2006.

Having proven himself a paper tiger in 2010, O'Brien will be in real jeopardy in 2012.