June 1, 2011
ILLINOIS' REPUBLICAN CONGRESSMEN SUNK BY "MADI-CULLOMANDER"
ANALYSIS & OPINION BY RUSS STEWART
Redrawing congressional district boundaries can be analogized to sausage-making. It ain't pretty. It's gory and bloody. The limbs and appendages of politicians are fed through the meat grinder. But the final version is eminently delectable to the butchering party.
In Illinois, the chainsaw belongs to the Democrats. Call it the "Madi-Cullomander," named after Illinois House Speaker Mike Madigan and Illinois Senate President John Cullerton. The Republicans have an 11-8 majority among Illinois' 19-member congressional delegation. Not much longer.
Due to a lack of population growth, the state loses a seat, and due to the machinations of Madigan and Cullerton, with their respective 64-54 and 35-24 House and Senate majorities, at least five Republican congressmen -- Joe Walsh, Bob Dold, Adam Kinzinger, Bobby Shilling and Judy Biggert -- will find their districts dismembered, disemboweled and utterly dissected, making them probable losers in 2012.
Once upon a time, perhaps in the America of the late 1700s, congressional districts were intended to be compact and contiguous and to have a commonality of interest. In other words: same geographic area, same ethnic grouping or race, same ideology or party. Chicago's population declined by 200,418 in the 2010 census, which fed an overall Cook County population loss of 182,066. The county contains part of 10 congressional districts, three occupied by an African American (Bobby Rush, Jesse Jackson Jr. and Danny Davis), one by a Hispanic (Luis Gutierrez), and three by white Democrats (Jan Schakowsky, Mike Quigley and Dan Lipinski).
Will Chicago or Cook County lose a seat? Not under the "Madi-Cullomander." Or the Voting Rights Act. In 1812 Massachusetts Governor Elbridge Gerry redrew his state's congressional district boundaries, connecting every Democratic-friendly, noncontiguous bastion, so as to ensure some Democrats in the delegation. It was termed a "gerrymander," since his districts resembled a salamander.
Illinois' "gerrymander" would do its forbears proud. Democratic incumbents need not sweat 2012. In addition, the federal Voting Rights Act forbids the elimination of "majority-minority" districts. That ensures a winnable, 50 percent-plus "minority" district for Jackson, Davis, Rush and Gutierrez.
The current district of Jackson, a black Chicagoan whose wife is the South Side 7th Ward alderman, encompasses the 7th, 8th and 10th wards and the south Cook County suburbs east of Interstate 57. His new district absorbs Peotone and most of northeast Will County, including Crete and University Park. Jackson has long been a champion of a Peotone Airport. Now the airport site is in his district.
Jackson's old district was 67.4 percent black; the new one is well under 60 percent. But with 90 percent of the black vote in his pocket and with Barack Obama on the 2012 ballot, he's unbeatable. First-term Republican congressman Adam Kinzinger resides in Manteno, north of New Lenox, in Jackson's new district. Will he move or fight?
Former congresswoman Debbie Halvorson, who lost in 2010, who is a former Illinois Senate majority leader, and whose base is in Crete, supposedly was promised an electable district by Cullerton for her 2012 comeback. The message of the "Madi-Cullomander": Get lost.
Rush, a liberal black Chicagoan from the 2nd Ward, currently represents the predominantly black wards west of Interstate 57 and a string of black-majority south suburbs such as Blue Island, Midlothian, Oak Forest and Tinley Park. It's 63.7 percent black. Now, presto, Rush will represent the lucky white people of Frankfort, Mokena and New Lenox. Better give him a compass and tour guide.
The onetime Black Panther has nothing in common with his Will County constituents. His black voter percentage, however, is still over 55, and his new constituents can spend the next decade being ignored.
Lipinski, whose political serendipity dwarfs his acumen, presumes that he will get a 10-year extension on his congressional service. His powerful father, Bill Lipinski, handed off the seat to his son in 2004, resigning his nomination and then conspiring to anoint his son as the replacement. About as charismatic as a fire hydrant, Lipinski is utterly dependent on his father's clout.
The current 3rd District contains the Southwest Side predominantly white (but increasingly Hispanic) machine-dominated 13th Ward (where Madigan is committeeman), 11th, 19th and 23rd wards (where the elder Lipinski is committeeman), and the Hispanic-majority 14th Ward, plus a huge slice of the southwest Cook County suburbs, extending from LaGrange to Oak Lawn and Palos Heights. Dan Lipinski lives in Western Springs.
The new 3rd District branches westward, absorbing half of Republican Biggert's safe district, grabbing upscale Lemont, Orland Park and Tinley Park in southwestern Cook County and parts of Plainfield and Lockport in Will County. He loses most of his Hispanic precincts south of Cicero and Berwyn, and the 11th and 14th wards. Obama won the old district in 2008 with 64 percent of the vote. The new district has a serious Republican base of at least 45 percent. Biggert's Hinsdale home was "Madi-Cullomandered" into Quigley's new Northwest Side/Lakefront Chicago 5th District, but she could run in the 3rd District.
First elected in 1998, the 73-year old Biggert is a moderate, pro-abortion rights Republican. Lipinski, age 45, is anti-abortion but generally supportive of Obama. Biggert is a better fit for the district. Does she have the energy to take on Lipinski?
Wealthy businessman John Atkinson of Burr Ridge had announced a 2012 primary challenge to Lipinski. Presto, the "Madi-Cullomander" put Atkinson in a new, incumbentless 11th District in the southwest suburbs, which deftly incorporates all the heavily Democratic, largely Hispanic areas of Aurora, Joliet, Bolingbrook and Romeoville, plus liberal, Democratic-trending Naperville.
According to Springfield sources, the new district is "Madi-Cullomandered" for the benefit of Hispanic state Representative Linda Chapa-LaVia of Joliet.
Southern DuPage County, now in Biggert's district, was transferred to Republican incumbent Peter Roskam's 6th District, which was crammed with every available suburban Republican. It extends northwestward from Downers Grove to Wheaton, through Saint Charles and Carpentersville in Kane County, to Cary, Crystal Lake, Lake Zurich and Wauconda in McHenry and Lake counties, and ending in Arlington Heights and Palatine in Cook County. Roskam, who barely won in 2006, is now impregnable.
Roskam's district wraps around the new, incumbentless 8th District, which is designed to elect a Democrat. It extends from Park Ridge westward to Elgin, basically south of Golf Road, and it includes the heavily Hispanic northeast corner of DuPage County (Bensenville, Addison, Wood Dale), formerly in Roskam's district. It takes in Des Plaines, Elk Grove, Schaumburg, Streamwood, Roselle, Hoffman Estates, Bartlett, Bloomingdale and Glendale. According to Springfield sources, the district was carved for Democratic state Senator Dan Kotowski of Park Ridge, an indefatigable campaigner, but Kotowski is unknown west of Route 53. Two area Democratic state representatives -- Fred Crespo of Hoffman Estates and Michelle Mussman of Schaumburg -- are mulling the race. A Democrat likely will win the seat, but Republican state Senator Matt Murphy, of Palatine in Roskam's district, would be formidable if he moved and ran there.
The North Shore/northern suburbs are another catastrophe for the Republicans. The current 10th District, held by U.S. Senator Mark Kirk from 2000 to 2010, was marginally Republican, but very liberal on social issues. Last year Republican Bob Dold edged Democrat Dan Seals by 4,651 votes (getting 51.1 percent of the vote), largely because he carried the Cook County portion (Wilmette, Winnetka, Glencoe, Glenview, Kenilworth, Northfield, Northbrook, Palatine) by 10,321 votes, while losing Lake County (Deerfield, Highland Park, Lake Forest, Buffalo Grove, North Chicago) by 5,670 votes.
The new 10th District, designed for Democratic state Senator Susan Garrett of Lake Forest, excises Palatine (given to Roskam) and the Cook County Lakefront (placed in Schakowsky's Evanston-area district) and adds Waukegan, Zion and the Fox Lake region, which currently are in Walsh's district. Dold, of Kenilworth, now lives in Schakowsky's district, where she is unbeatable. In a primary election against Roskam, Dold loses. In a putative Dold-Garrett matchup, Dold is the underdog, but not hopelessly so.
Walsh, who upset Democrat Melissa Bean by 290 votes in 2010, resides in North Barrington, which was put in a rural, exurban Kendall-Kane-McHenry county district, where the incumbent is Republican Randy Hultgren. Walsh will be at a disadvantage in a 2012 Republican primary, as two-thirds of the new district belongs to Hultgren.
On the Northwest Side, Quigley's seat, which previously was occupied by Rod Blagojevich and Rahm Emanuel, now extends in a semi-circle from Rush Street and Lincoln Park on the Lakefront to Hinsdale. Quigley is safe.
Downstate, Democrats drew a new heavily Democratic district around Decatur, Springfield and Quincy, designed to oust Shilling, who won a 2010 upset by 19,129 votes. My early prediction: Democrats will seize a 12-7 delegation majority in 2012.
A final thought: Bill Brady won the Republican primary for governor by 193 votes over Kirk Dillard. Brady lost to Pat Quinn by 31,834 votes. Dillard would have defeated Quinn, and as governor he would have vetoed the remap.