May 18, 2011
POLITICIAN'S "SHELF LIFE" ENDANGERED BY LEGISLATIVE REMAP

ANALYSIS & OPINION BY RUSS STEWART

Contrary to popular presumption, politicians do have a preordained "shelf life," with a bar code that expires every 10 years.

That's when, following completion of the decennial U.S. Census, all congressional and state legislative districts, as well as wards in municipalities, must be redrawn to be of approximately equal population, reflecting the prior decade's demographic shifts. Inasmuch as Chicago's population dwindled by 200,418 and Cook County's fell by 182,066, while Illinois' population increased by 445,087, the Chicago area presumably will lose legislators, but not necessarily legislative clout.

A noticeable ripple effect will occur on the Northwest Side. Inner-city black and Hispanic areas have lost population, with African Americans continuing their exodus to the southern suburbs, Hispanics migrating to the western suburbs, and Mexican immigration slowing to a trickle. Under the federal Voting Rights Act, "majority-minority" districts must be preserved, which means white legislators, not minorities, are at risk.

However, inasmuch as Democrats control the remap process in Illinois, Northwest Side state senators and representatives need not worry. For them, it's "shelf life extended" and batteries recharged.

According to Springfield sources, the developing legislative remap, which must be passed by a simple majority before May 31 but by a three-fifths majority thereafter, will protect state Representatives Mike McAuliffe (R-20), Joe Lyons (D-19), John D'Amico (D-15) and Lou Lang (D-16) and state Senators John Mulroe (D-10) and Ira Silverstein (D-8). All will gobble up more suburban terrain. But it will put at severe risk state Senator Dan Kotowski (D-33) of Park Ridge and state Representatives Rosemary Mulligan (R-65) of Des Plaines, who will lose large slices of their existing districts to Mulroe and McAuliffe, Deb Mell (D-40), who needs more non-Hispanic Chicago precincts, and Skip Saviano (R-77) of Elmwood Park, whose district will gain more Hispanic residents.

"I will seek reelection," emphatically stated Mulroe, who was elected in November after Springfield Democrats dumped $800,000 into the race. He defeated Republican Alderman Brian Doherty by 5,884 votes, getting 55.4 percent of the total cast. Mulroe categorically denied rumors that he will seek a judgeship in 2012, clearing a path for Kotowski. "I'll have a district," he said.

Likewise for McAuliffe, a Republican who is not estranged from Illinois Democratic House Speaker Mike Madigan, whose staff is drawing the legislative lines. "I'll be fine," predicted McAuliffe, who said his new district will surrender at least 40 city precincts in the 29th, 36th and 38th wards and a dozen in Harwood Heights while gaining more than 50 in Park Ridge, Schiller Park and Rosemont and retaining Norridge. The only Chicago portion of his new district will be the 41st Ward, where he is the Republican committeeman.

Mulligan, who was first elected in 1992, is the Maine Township Republican committeeman, but rumors are rife that she will retire in 2012. Her Des Plaines residence won't be in the new McAuliffe-friendly district. She has three options: battle McAuliffe, oppose fellow incumbent David Harris (R-66) of the Arlington Heights-Mount Prospect area in a primary, or quit. There are 83 precincts in Mulligan's 65th District, of which seven are in the 41st Ward and half are in Park Ridge.

The arithmetic of the remap is elemental. The recorded population of Illinois in 2000 was 12,419,293, which allotted each of the 118 House districts a population of 105,248 and each Senate district (which are composed of two House districts) a population of 210,496. The state's population in 2010 was recorded as 12,864,380, up 3.5 percent. That means House and Senate district populations of 109,020 and 218,040, respectively. There are eight Senate districts wholly within Chicago and nine more with suburban overlap but dominated by Chicago; all are occupied by Democrats. According to the census, four predominantly black South Side Senate districts lost more than 81,000 people and four Hispanic-majority Senate districts (three with suburban overlap) lost 56,600 people.

On the Near Northwest Side, around Logan Square, the Hispanic population in the districts of state Senators Iris Martinez (D-20) and Willie Delgado (D-2) dropped by 38,000. Martinez' new district will have to absorb 30,000 voters from adjacent districts -- which means the eastern Belmont-Central portion of Lyons' House district and the southern 36th Ward portion of McAuliffe's district.

Does this mean fewer "majority-majority" districts? Of course not. The "minority" districts simply push out, like a balloon, into the predominantly white areas, and the beleaguered white incumbent Chicagoans are pushed out farther into the suburbs.

Along the Lakefront, the Edgewater/Rogers Park district of state Senator Heather Steans (D-7) lost 22,000 in population. She must push westward, taking at least 30,000 voters from the territory of Silverstein, whose current district includes the West Rogers Park 50th Ward and the 40th and 39th wards, as well as Lincolnwood and most of Skokie. That means Silverstein and D'Amico must corral more of Morton Grove and Skokie, which now are in the district of state Senator Jeff Schoenberg (D-9), and more of Niles, in Mulroe's district.

"John (D'Amico) will have a more suburban district," predicted Randy Barnette, the 39th Ward Democratic committeeman, who is the husband of Alderman Marge Laurino (39th), D'Amico's aunt. "He will be safe" given his strong base in the 39th Ward and the fact that he already has 31 precincts in Niles and Morton Grove, Barnette said. But, as Silverstein's district is shifted westward, it will have fewer Jewish voters, which could create future problems for him.

Speaking of problems, Kotowski's is huge. An inveterate campaigner who devotes 10 to 12 hours per week to precinct work, Kotowski has solidified his Park Ridge base. He won election in 2006 by 29,293-2,7859, getting 51.2 percent of the vote and upsetting appointed incumbent Cheryl Axley, and he was reelected in 2008 by 48,344-32,293 (with 59.9 percent of the vote). He is part and parcel of the Democrats' Senate majority, and he rarely bucks Senate President John Cullerton, who can deliver $500,000-plus for any future Kotowski campaign. Kotowski voted for the state income tax hike (as did Mulroe), and he was eagerly desirous of annexing the usually Democratic 41st Ward into his new district, jettisoning Republican-leaning Elk Grove, Rolling Meadows and south Arlington Heights.

Instead, Kotowski gets a kick in the head. His district has 188 precincts, of which seven are in the 41st Ward. His district will shift out along Interstate 90, taking in more of Arlington Heights plus parts of Schaumburg and Hoffman Estates. He will lose virtually all of Park Ridge.

"The Democrats (meaning Cullerton's Senate operation) made a big investment in Mulroe (in 2010)," observed one Springfield insider. "He's a keeper. They'll let Kotowski fend for himself. They think he can win wherever they put him." Kotowski resides in Park Ridge, but he can run in 2012 in any district which includes any part of his old district.

Kotowski ally Mark Walker, who was elected as a state representative in 2008 in the 66th District (in the western portion of Kotowski's district), lost to Republican Harris in November by 16,147-13,763 (getting 46.0 percent of the vote). Harris' base is in Arlington Heights, and Walker's base was in Mount Prospect. Walker won in 2008 by 2,048 votes, and he lost in 2010 by 2,384 votes. Harris' new district will extend from River Road to beyond Roselle Road. He is unknown in Des Plaines and west of Interstate 290. The Democrats are already putting pressure on Des Plaines Mayor Marty Moylan to run for the seat.

The likely remap will juxtapose McAuliffe's and Lyons' House districts from north-south to east-west. McAuliffe's currently extends in a bell-shaped configuration from Howard Street to Belmont Avenue, taking in 38 of 57 precincts in the 41st Ward, 36 of 55 in the 36th Ward and six of 53 in the 38th Ward, plus 20 precincts in Park Ridge and Niles. "It will be like my father's (district) in the 1980s," noted McAuliffe, referring to the late Roger McAuliffe's old 14th District, which took in the eastern half of Park Ridge. A key addition will be Rosemont, a Republican bastion now in Saviano's Elmwood Park-based district.

Parts of Saviano's district, especially Franklin Park and Melrose Park, now have many Hispanics. If he absorbs territory in DuPage County, such as Addison, the district will be close to majority Hispanic.

Lyons' district is centered on his 45th Ward base, encompassing 46 of 53 precincts in the 45th Ward and 44 of 53 in the 38th Ward. The district runs from Devon Avenue to Addison Street, west of Cicero Avenue. Lyons will seek reelection, and his new district will extend west, taking in all of the non-Hispanic parts of the 36th and 38th wards plus Harwood Heights. He will surrender the eastern quarter of the 45th Ward, including Forest Glen, to D'Amico, and the Elston-Pulaski area to Mell. Despite his vote for the income tax hike, Lyons is secure.

In fact, local political sources indicate that D'Amico, whose House district includes seven 45th Ward precincts, will be the "compromise" choice for Democratic committeeman in 2012, replacing Pat Levar. He was not involved in the bitter 2011 aldermanic race, and he is not unacceptable to incoming Alderman John Arena or to the existing Lyons/Levar organization.