Blame it on attention deficit. Blame it on the SEIU's union money machine. Blame it on George Bush. Blame it on a nasty, negative campaign.

When one loses an aldermanic election by a microscopic 28 votes, as John Garrido did in the 45th Ward on April 5, there's much blame and tons of fault to be assessed. Turnout in the ward's 53 precincts was 12,132. Garrido lost by half a vote per precinct. The most inconsequential mistake or oversight assumes gargantuan proportions. "What ifs" proliferate.

What if Garrido had not run in the 2010 Republican primary for Cook County Board president? Then the yoke of Bush and "failed Republican policies" would not have been hung on his neck. Garrido's Republican affiliation cost him hundreds of votes.

What if the Service Employees International Union and the Chicago Federation of Labor had not flooded the ward with negative mailings, provided staff, and spent $150,000 to defeat Garrido? The unions spent $200,000 on behalf of Marina Faz-Huppert in the February municipal election.

What if Garrido had raised more money? He spent $112,846 in the campaign, and he had two runoff mailings. In the Feb. 22 general election, with seven candidates, Garrido got a solid third of the vote, emphasizing his job as a police lieutenant and his pledge to "protect" the ward. In the runoff, Garrido's "message" was drowned in a pool of negativity.

What if Garrido had run against Marina Faz-Huppert, the "unions' sweetheart," who was backed by outgoing Alderman Pat Levar's Democratic organization? She got 3,092 votes (19.5 percent of the total cast) in the Feb. 22 municipal election, and she was a seriously flawed candidate.

But give credit where credit is due. John Arena, the victor, ran a brilliant campaign. His advisors and supporters well understood that the path to runoff victory lay in demonizing and discrediting Garrido, not in promoting Arena.

A blizzard of 17 attack mailers, more than half funded with union money, effectively isolated Garrido as "not one of us" and as a "partisan Republican" who allegedly was opposed to union collective bargaining rights, supported privatization of city services, favored concealed carry of guns, and got contributions from those who prospered from the city's parking meter deal.

"All lies," Garrido fumed. But extraordinarily effective.

Arena's negativity transformed the runoff from a choice between two charismatic, articulate candidates into a referendum on "Big, Bad John" Garrido. Arena gave voters a multitude of personal and political reasons not to vote for Garrido, and Garrido lacked the resources to rebut him and reciprocate.

The result was a 6,080-6,052 win for Arena, who got 50.1 percent of the vote. Arena carried 33 of the ward's 53 precincts and, south of Lawrence Avenue, in and around his Portage Park base, he won 16 of 17 precincts. Garrido, from Gladstone Park, won 20 precincts, but he lost 17 of the 36 precincts north of Lawrence, his base.

It will be recalled that in March I made one prophetic prediction and one erroneous prediction. I predicted a 6,800-6,100 Garrido win in a turnout of 12,900. That was half wrong, as turnout was 12,077, and Garrido had 750 fewer votes than expected. But I accurately predicted that Arena, to win, had to get 60 percent of the vote in the southern section of the ward and more than 45 percent of the vote in the north end. That's exactly what happened. Arena got 45.4 percent of the vote in Garrido's northern base and 60.2 percent in his southern base.

Garrido had 5,138 votes (32.4 percent of the total cast) in the February election, finishing first in 33 precincts, and Arena had 3,595 votes (22.7 percent), finishing first in 13 precincts. The other five candidates -- Faz-Huppert, Don Blair, Anna Klocek, Mike Ward and Bruno Bellissimo -- had a total of 7,398 votes. Blair, Ward and Bellissimo endorsed Garrido. Faz-Huppert, a lobbyist and the political director of the United Food and Commercial Workers Union, gave Arena a $5,000 contribution, and she helped swing the unions behind Arena. "Just watch," observed one Levar precinct captain. "I'll bet she is the next (Democratic) committeeman."

On April 5, Garrido got just 914 more votes than he got in February, while Arena had an uptick of 2,485 votes. Presuming that the municipal election's Garrido voters and Arena voters stampeded to the polls for their champion in April, then 4,054 of the other contenders' voters didn't. Based on that assumption, Arena got the support of more than 70 percent of the 3,344 who did vote. Here's why:

To the north of Lawrence Avenue, in Gladstone Park, north Jefferson Park, Forest Glen and Edgebrook, lie 36 precincts. The area is working class, culturally conservative, and normally inclined to support pro-Daley Democrats like Levar. It cast 10,825 ballots on Feb. 22; Garrido had 4,082 votes (37.7 percent of the total cast), and Arena had 1,977 votes (18.2 percent).

In the runoff, the northern area cast 8,289 ballots, 2,536 fewer than in February -- a decline of 23.4 percent. Garrido got 4,522 votes (54.6 percent of the total), just 440 more than in the general election, while Arena's vote nearly doubled, from 1,977 to 3,767 (45.4 percent), an increase of 1,790.

Forest Glen, the area between Cicero, Foster and Elston avenues, is indicative of why Arena won. In the general election, two candidates from Forest Glen, Anna Klocek and Mike Ward, got 279 votes in the area's precincts, to 279 for Garrido and 195 for Arena, but Arena won the runoff by 373-362. Likewise in the two Edgebrook precincts, which Arena won 314-273. By defining Garrido as a Republican, Arena put a ceiling on Garrido's vote in those independent areas.

In Portage Park and south Jefferson Park lie 17 precincts. The area is economically mixed, with many professionals who are culturally liberal and very disinclined to support machine Democrats like Levar. Arena calls himself an "Obama Democrat," which means he typifies the neighborhood. It cast 5,039 ballots on Feb. 22; Arena had 1,618 votes (32.1 percent of the total), and Garrido had 1,056 votes (21.0 percent).

In the runoff, the area cast 3,843 ballots, 1,196 fewer than in February -- a decline of 23.7 percent. Garrido got 1,530 votes (39.8 percent of the total), just 474 more than in the general election, while Arena's vote surged from 1,618 to 2,313 (60.2 percent), an increase of 695 votes.

Each candidate rocked in the precincts around their home. In the Elston-Austin area, Garrido won 11 precincts with more than 60 percent of the vote and his home precinct with more than 70 percent. In the Six Corners area, Arena won eight precincts with more than 60 percent of the vote and his home precinct and the adjacent precinct with more than 70 percent of the vote.

Arena won 23 of the 31 precincts where the winner got less than 60 percent of the vote and 11 of the 14 precincts where the winner got less than 55 percent. "Many, many people have told me that they forgot to vote or their spouse didn't vote," Garrido groaned. With campaign signs all over the ward and with anti-Garrido mailers bombarding every household every other day, only an ostrich was unaware of the election. Attention deficit is a non-excuse.

Garrido lost because he couldn't expand his base, not because he couldn't turn out his base. Arena won because he packaged himself as a "Democratic alderman," and that was just enough to solidify his vote both north and south of Lawrence Avenue.

Arena's campaign proved that the power of the postal service is best utilized negatively, not positively. Faz-Huppert's barrage of 15 mailers, filled with bland bromides, made nary a dent. The unions could not sell their product. But in the runoff, slick pieces featuring Bush and Sarah Palin, plus allegations that Garrido "hit the jackpot" on the parking meter deal, that he would "draw two city pensions," and that he donated to Bush's campaign got voters' attention.

The lesson: It's easier to unsell a candidate than to sell a candidate. The cost: the SEIU and their union allies spent roughly $350,000 to elect a 45th Ward alderman. Faz-Huppert got 3,092 votes, and Arena got 6,080 votes. That's $38 per vote. Will they get a return on their investment?

"I'm not beholden to anybody," Arena snapped. "They will have no influence. They get a seat at the table, but I will deliberate on every issue." Arena said he won because of his "positive, grassroots campaign." His committee spent $106,038 on the campaign.

"I wish him well," Garrido insisted. "I hope he does a good job, but he has no mandate. He won because of his negative campaign." As for 2015, Garrido "won't rule out a rematch."

"I certainly do have a mandate," Arena retorted. "The people want new leadership. They want an independent alderman. They rejected an Organization Democrat (in Faz-Huppert)."

To coin a phrase: We'll see. Arena promised not to run for ward Democratic committeeman in 2012, a post held by Levar. The outgoing alderman reportedly has already snagged a job with a major union. If he quits his party post, he can prevail on his captains to choose Faz-Huppert or his son, Pat Jr., as his successor.

We'll see whether the "independent alderman" cuts a deal with the "Organization Democrats."

Next week: An analysis of the 41st Ward contest.