February 16, 2011
"AURA OF INVINCIBILITY" SURROUNDS EMANUEL FOR MAYOR

ANALYSIS & OPINION BY RUSS STEWART

Here's an Einsteinian formula to predict Chicago's next mayor: E=1,406,037x42%-70%w&33%b=2/22win{w/no4/5runoff}@310,000.

To the mathematically challenged, that means that if 42 percent of Chicago's 1,406,027 registered voters turn out and Rahm Emanuel gets 70 percent of the white vote, 10 percent of the Hispanic vote and 33 percent of the black vote, his 305,000 to 320,000 votes will be a majority on Feb. 22, electing him without an April 5 runoff.

An aura of invincibility surrounds Emanuel. The field consists of Emanuel, who is the only white candidate, Hispanics Gery Chico and Miguel del Valle and blacks Carol Moseley Braun, William Walls and Patricia Van Pelt Watkins. The question is when, not if, Emanuel will win. Will it be on Feb. 22 or on April 5? If he is forced into a runoff, against either Braun or Chico, Emanuel will win.

Turnout was 73.8 percent in November of 2008 and 62.2 percent in November of 2010. It was 33.0 percent and 33.8 percent, respectively, in the mayoral elections of 2007 and 2003. It will be around 42 to 45 percent on Feb. 22, or 590,000 to 630,000, so Emanuel would need 300,000 to 315,000 votes to win. Here's his game plan:

In the 14 predominantly white ethnic wards on the Northwest and Southwest sides, with 388,134 registered voters, turnout will be 45 to 48 percent, or 175,000 to 190,000. Virtually every Northwest Side Democratic committeeman is backing Emanuel, but his support on the Southwest Side is desultory. Chico has positioned himself as the conservative, anti-crime, anti-tax candidate. Unions are foursquare behind Emanuel, who has promised property and sales tax cuts. If 70 percent of the outlying white voters opt for Emanuel, that's 270,000 votes. To make the runoff, Chico must keep Emanuel's white vote to just 50 percent and win most of the other half.

In the seven diverse but mostly upscale Lakefront wards, plus Wicker Park and Lakeview, with 224,424 registered voters, turnout will barely exceed 40 percent, or 90,000. Emanuel's liberal congressional record, his Jewish heritage and his connection to two presidents will suffice to gain him 60 to 65 percent of the vote, or 50,000-plus votes; del Valle will run well among committed liberals.

In the 20 black-majority wards, with 607,322 registered voters, a plethora of multi-candidate aldermanic races will spur turnout to at least 50 percent, but there's no evident racial passion or racial solidarity. The us-versus-them mentality and accompanying thirst for political power which characterized Chicago's black residents and politicians in the 1980s and 1990s has dissipated.

Braun, a one-term U.S. senator who was defeated in 1998, is a relic, incapable of motivating her black base. "A lot of older blacks view her as a trail blazer, but younger blacks see her as irrelevant," said one black politician. "Many want a black mayor, but they don't want her, and they know she's a loser." The politician adds that many blacks are angry and perceive this election as a blown opportunity. If Emanuel, age 51, becomes mayor, he could occupy City Hall for the next 20 years, and his successor likely would be Hispanic, not black.

If black turnout is 50 percent, that would amount to more than 300,000 votes -- almost enough to win if they were cast for one black candidate. But Braun, Walls and Van Pelt will fractionalize the black vote, and many black Democratic ward committeemen, uninspired by Braun and convinced of Emanuel's inevitability, will divert votes to him. So, too, will the "Obama connection." The word on the street is that electing Emanuel in 2011 is helpful to reelecting Obama in 2012.

Notwithstanding polls showing Braun with less than 10 percent backing, she will get at least 150,000 votes in the black community and virtually none anywhere else. Her black vote alone will give her 20 to 23 percent of the vote, which will put her in second place. Expect Emanuel to get 25 to 30 percent of the black vote, or 75,000 to 90,000 votes.

In the nine predominantly Hispanic wards, with 186,157 registered voters, turnout will barely reach 40 percent, or 75,000 voters, with del Valle, who is Puerto Rican, carrying the North Side Puerto Rican wards and Chico, who is Mexican, Greek and Lithuanian, carrying the South Side Mexican-American wards. However, Emanuel will still get 8 to 10 percent of the vote, or 5,000 votes.

The rap on Emanuel is that he is arrogant and that he exhibits a Napoleonic complex. After leaving the Clinton Administration, Emanuel made a quick $18.5 million as an investment banker, brokering eight deals with Clinton donors. The political rap is that he will rule with an iron fist, brook no criticism and build a political machine by giving the unions whatever they want. Nobody doubts that he is competent. Nobody believes that he will cut spending or taxes. If he is elected, he will be Chicago's new boss.

Chico's campaign spokeswoman said Emanuel's support "is flat" and has "hit a ceiling." Last December Emanuel was at 44 percent in the polls; he's now at or near 50 percent. Chico's backing, she said, has "risen from 7 percent to 23 percent. He will make the runoff."

My prediction: Emanuel has the resources ($12 million), the visibility (99 percent name recognition), the media presence and celebrity endorsements, and the in-precinct political apparatus, and that is the arithmetic of victory: 175,000 to 190,000 votes from the white ethnic wards, 50,000 from the Lakefront, 75,000 from the black wards, and 5,000 from the Hispanic wards -- totaling 305,000 to 320,000 votes. Rahm wins.

Here my final analyses of aldermanic races:

50th Ward (West Rogers Park): Again, the operative question is when, not if, 38-year incumbent Berny Stone will be defeated. Will it be Feb. 22 or April 5? The 83-year old Stone is incapable of knowing when to say when. Instead of riding off into the sunset in a chariot of roses, Stone defiantly insists on being hauled out on a gurney.

Stone got 5,059 votes (48.3 percent of the total cast) in 2007, to 2,958 for Naisy Dolar, a Filipino American, 1,906 for Greg Brewer and 546 for Salman Aftab, a Muslim American. In a ward where nearly half the voters are Jewish, Stone edged Dolar in the runoff by 6,015-5,310(getting 53.1 percent of the vote), due mainly to an influx of out-of-ward workers sent in by the "Daley Machine." Stone was thrashed for Democratic committeeman in 2008 by state Senator Ira Silverstein, his former protégé, by 5,953-2,863, with Silverstein getting 67.5 percent of the vote.

The ward has sizable numbers of Asian Indians, Pakistanis, Vietnamese, Chinese, Japanese, Koreans, Laotians, Thais and Russians, and a religious mix of Jews, Christians, Muslims and Buddhists. But half the registered voters are Jewish, and half of those are Orthodox. The field for alderman includes Stone, attorney Mike Moses, Debra Silverstein (the senator's wife) -- all of whom are Jewish, with Silverstein Orthodox -- and Brewer, Tom Morris and Ahmed Khan.

Stone and Moses are trying to attach the "sins" of the husband to the wife. Ira Silverstein opposed a state income tax hike but voted to "fully fund" city pensions, which Mayor Daley said would cause huge property tax raises. "She's for huge tax hikes and video poker," Moses claimed. "The increases will be astronomical," Stone said. "I support full funding, but oppose any property tax hike," Debra Silverstein retorted. "We must find another revenue source."

My prediction: Orthodox Jews, especially women, are solid for Silverstein. Stone fatigue is epidemic. He's paying his workers. Expect a Silverstein-Stone runoff. "Please, please predict I'll lose," begged Stone. "You're always wrong." Not this time.

In recent weeks, this column has exhaustively analyzed area aldermanic contests. They can be accessed at www.russstewart.com .   Here's an update:

45th Ward: The U.S. Postal Service may be going bankrupt, but Marina Faz-Huppert is keeping it solvent. In the last five weeks, the unions' "sweetheart" has deluged the ward with three mailings per week, costing close to $200,000. "It's a matter of diminishing returns," said the campaign manager of one opponent. "The mailings are substandard. Her roots in the ward are tenuous. She's getting no traction."

As recently as April of 2009, Faz-Huppert, a lobbyist for the United Food and Commercial Workers union, voted in River Forest, where she still owns property. In a recent mailer she proclaimed that "my husband and I live with you here in the 45th Ward." Is she a missionary converting the heathens? She claims she's "not a member of any political organization." Yet she is the hand-picked candidate of outgoing Alderman Pat Levar, the Democratic committeeman.

My prediction: The ward has 31,559 registered voters. Turnout will be 16,500. Levar should be able to produce 6,000 votes, but Faz-Huppert is sinking like a rock. She'll finish in the realm of 25 to 30 percent, or 4,000 to 4,800 votes.

Battling for second are police lieutenant John Garrido and community activist John Arena, endorsed by both the Chicago Tribune and Sun-Times. Garrido has tapped out his resources, but his base among Republicans and police officers is worth 3,500 to 3,800 votes. Arena, who is popular among liberals, has had four mailings, and he also will get 3,500 to 3,800 votes.

Michael Ward has already peaked, but he will generate 2,500 votes. Bringing up the rear are Don Blair (1,000 to 1,200), Anna Klocek (700) and Bruno Bellissimo (250). If Faz-Huppert finishes with less than 30 percent of the vote, she'll be toast in the runoff, even if the unions funnel in another $250,000.