October 20, 2010
DOHERTY-MULROE BATTLE MARKED BY DREADED "C-WORD"

ANALYSIS & OPINION BY RUSS STEWART

In the Northwest Side 10th Illinois Senate District, the dreaded "C word" has surfaced. But, lest feminists or concerned parents be alarmed, rest assured that the letter is analytical, not anatomical.

The "C," at least in this article, is for convoluted, contemptible, contradictory, combustible and confusing.

First, convoluted. Alderman Brian Doherty (41st), the Republican candidate, is being pilloried in Democratic cable television ads for having "backed (Mayor Rich) Daley on 91 percent" of City Council roll call votes since 1991, for supporting 17 of 19 city budgets "which raised spending by $3 billion," for voting to approve 41 TIF districts which "raise property taxes on everybody else," and for supporting the parking meter, Skyway and city garage leases.

Let's get this straight: The Democrats claim the Republican candidate shouldn't be elected because he's been a toady for the Democratic mayor. Chicagoan John Cullerton, the Democratic Senate president who is desperately defending his 37-22 majority, and who is Daley's ally in Springfield, is spending more than $500,000 in order to defeat Doherty. And that's because he's too pro-Daley? That not just convoluted; it's idiotic.

The Democrats control city, county and state government, and every recent indicted and convicted public official has been a Democrat. Corruption and incompetence are epidemic. So how do the Democrats plan to beat Doherty? By claiming he's one of them.

Second, contemptible. The Democratic candidate, appointed state Senator John Mulroe, is being relentlessly hammered by the Republicans in direct mail pieces for being a "triple dipper" -- for "having three patronage jobs at the same time" and "getting paid over $150,000." That's just not true. Mulroe, a lawyer, unquestionably used his party connections to secure legal jobs as an independent contractor, for which he has been paid about $150,000 since 2001.

Mulroe has been an administrative hearing officer for Chicago building code violations, working three to four days per month, a Cook County mandatory arbitration judge, earning $100 per case and working four days per year, and he was a Chicago Park District hearing officer, a job he quit in 2006. For each job, he was paid on a daily, hourly or case basis and received no benefits. When Republicans accuse Mulroe of "bailing himself out with our tax dollars," they're lying. And that's contemptible.

However, when Mulroe's Senate appointment is lambasted as a "backroom deal," the Republicans have a point. Mulroe replaced the resigned Jim DeLeo in August, and he'll earn $30,000 through December, even though the General Assembly is adjourned. Why not leave the seat open and save some tax dollars? Quoth Mulroe: "If I didn't take it, people would think I'm not up to the job." Message to Mulroe: You deserve the Republicans' criticism.

In retribution, Mulroe takes cheap shots at Doherty, claiming that he has "earned almost $2 million" for his "part-time job" as an alderman, which "averages $4,600 per City Council meeting." Adds Mulroe: "Doherty's earning $110,000 a year, but he's out every day campaigning for senator. He's cheating taxpayers." Wait a minute, John. How many hours a day are you spending as a senator?

Mulroe said that Doherty backed almost all of Daley's budgets, which increased spending from $3 billion in 1992 to $6 billion in 2010, and that he supported tax hikes on real estate property transfers, telephones, cable television, restaurants, boaters, sports events and cell phones, and higher fees for water, sewer, parking, dog licenses, vehicle stickers and gun owners. "He is nickel-and-diming the ward," Mulroe said. Hey, John. How about taking a few shots at the mayor? Even if Doherty voted no, they would have passed anyway.

"Let's be clear," retorts Doherty. "I promised to never vote for any property tax increase, and I kept my word." On the property transfer tax hike, Doherty said he voted against it but it passed and was included in the budget, as were other fee, fine and tax hikes over the years. He said that on the parking meter deal, Daley "gave us only two days to consider it. In retrospect, it was a mistake." Doherty said TIF districts "are supposed to be for blighted areas" and that they "have not increased taxes in the 41st Ward."

Third, contradictory. Illinois' budget deficit is $13 billion, and the Democratic legislature, if Pat Quinn remains as governor, will return in November and raise the state income tax.

Doherty is emphatic: "I will not vote for any income tax increase." Mulroe equivocates: "I will consider all alternatives, including a progressive state income tax hike," if the deficit "can't be cured by economies or cuts."

DeLeo, not Mulroe, was in Springfield in 2009 when Cullerton's Democrats passed an increase in the individual income tax rate from 3 percent to 5 percent, an increase that was rejected by the Illinois House. Mulroe professed opposition to a flat-rate hike, and he supports higher taxes on higher earners, but only if a constitutional amendment were passed for a graduated tax. That would take years. "But we cannot cut essential services," Mulroe adds. That's a contradiction bordering on mendacity. Raise taxes or cut spending -- now.

With Cullerton investing a vast sum to elect Mulroe, does anybody really think that Mulroe wouldn't be Cullerton's puppet in Springfield?

Fourth, combustible. In a heavily Catholic district, Doherty called Mulroe a "baby killer." "He's for abortion," Doherty said. "He's endorsed by the pro-abortion Personal PAC, which has donated to his campaign. He's betrayed every Catholic in the district." Doherty noted that Mulroe is a past president of the Saint Juliana Parish school board in Edison Park.

"I personally oppose abortion," but "a woman has the right to make a decision," Mulroe said. "It's the law of the land."

Mulroe ripped Doherty for his "Brady-like stance" on abortion. But Doherty, who opposes abortion, backs exceptions to save the life of the mother or in cases of rape or incest. Mulroe said he supports a ban on late-term "partial-birth" abortions and that he supports parental notification of a minor's abortion in most circumstances. Doherty needs a huge Catholic vote to win, but "baby killer" is combustible. Doherty may alienate as many voters as he attracts.

Fifth, confusion. The Northwest Side has a longstanding "nonaggression" pact. The Democrats abstain from meddling in the 41st Ward, the base of Doherty and state Representative Mike McAuliffe (R-20). Their allies, county Commissioner Pete Silvestri (R-9) and state Representative Skip Saviano (R-77), both of Elmwood Park, are closely associated with DeLeo and 36th Ward Democratic Committeeman Bill Banks, who recently resigned as alderman. The Doherty/McAuliffe clique doesn't interfere with Democratic hegemony in the 36th, 38th and 45th wards.

DeLeo is tight with John Cullerton, and he has robustly endorsed Mulroe. Mulroe said Banks has endorsed him, while Doherty said that Banks is surreptitiously backing him. The district's other players -- 45th Ward Alderman and Committeeman Pat Levar, 38th Ward Committeeman Patti Jo Cullerton, 38th Ward Alderman Tom Allen and Norwood Park Township Committeeman Richard Martwick -- are four-square behind Mulroe.

Of the 201 precincts in the 10th District, 172 are in Chicago and 29 are in the suburbs. DeLeo, who was first elected in 1992, was unopposed in 1996, 2000, 2002 and 2006, getting 44,622 votes in 2006. The Senate district contains two House districts, McAuliffe's 20th and Democrat Joe Lyons' 19th. Their total vote in 2006 was 50,537. Turnout will be in the realm of 55,000 in November.

To win, Doherty must carry his 41st Ward base, which contains 39 precincts and casts about 16,000 votes, with more than 60 percent of the vote. He must break even in Norwood Park Township and the 36th Ward, which contain 77 precincts and cast about 13,000 votes, and get at least 45 percent of the vote in the 45th and 38th wards, which contain 106 precincts and cast about 21,500 votes. "Doherty is well known, but he's been around too long," Mulroe said. "He's not popular."

McAuliffe won the 41st Ward in 2006 with 68.1 percent of the vote. Mulroe will carry his base in Edison Park, while Doherty will take Norwood Park and Oriole Park. Doherty needs to win the ward by 9,600-6,400, giving him a bulge of 3,200 votes. He won't. He will win the ward by 2,800 votes. The 36th Ward, which McAuliffe won with 53.3 percent of the vote, is critical. Of 9,500 expected votes, Doherty must get at least 4,500, and also win Norwood Park Township (Norridge and Harwood Heights) with 60 percent of the vote and a 500-vote margin.

That puts the burden squarely on Levar and Cullerton. Their wards cast more than 21,000 votes, they have no Republican infrastructure, and they are crammed to capacity with "Reagan Democrats" who are especially hostile to the liberal policies of Obama and Quinn. Levar is already under siege in the 2011 aldermanic election.

The question is: Will Doherty's heavy mailing, and his "triple dipper," "tax hiker" and "baby killer" attacks on Mulroe offset the work of Democratic precinct captains? Doherty must not lose those wards by more than 2,800 votes. That means, in 21,500 turnout, Mulroe wins by not more than 12,150-9,350.

My prediction: Based on the numbers and the intrinsically Democratic nature of the district, Mulroe should win. But in a squeaker, Doherty will triumph by 250 votes.