September 29, 2010
BERRIOS PLAYS "OBAMA CARD" IN ASSESSOR'S RACE AGAINST CLAYPOOL

ANALYSIS & OPINION BY RUSS STEWART

Elect Berrios in order to reelect Obama. That, in a nutshell, is the incongruous premise of Joe Berrios' campaign for Cook County assessor.

"My election is important" to the president, said Berrios, the Cook County Democratic Party chairman and a Board of Review commissioner. "It will be humiliating" to Illinoisan Barack Obama "if Democrats lose statewide contests for governor and U.S. senator and if I'm defeated for assessor," Berrios said. Such a result could portend Obama's defeat in 2012, particularly if he loses Illinois, he said.

That's utter gibberish. A Republican will not be elected assessor. Instead, Berrios is facing fellow Democrat Forrest Claypool, a Cook County Board commissioner who is running as an independent candidate for the office. In fact, Claypool, who once was Mayor Rich Daley's chief of staff, is a longtime associate of David Axelrod, a senior advisor in the Obama White House. Claypool supported Obama in 2008, and he will do likewise in 2012.

"This election is about reform in Cook County and fair taxation," said Tom Bowen, Claypool's campaign manager. It's not about 2012, he said.

There are four candidates, listed on the ballot as follows: Republican Evanston Township Assessor Sharon Strobeck-Eckersall, Berrios, Green Party candidate Robert Grota and Claypool. With an anticipated countywide turnout of 1.4 million, and with about 1.3 million voters casting a ballot in the assessor's race, the black vote of 400,000, comprising 40 percent in Chicago and 25 percent in the suburbs, and the Republican vote, which will be around 20 percent, are critical.

Quite simply, Berrios wins if he gets two-thirds of the black vote (266,000 votes), and Claypool wins if he gets 40 percent of the black vote (160,000 votes). Berrios wins if Strobeck-Eckersall gets 25 percent or more of the vote (325,000 votes), and Claypool wins if her vote is 15 percent or less (195,000 votes). "Every Democratic vote we take away from Berrios is irreplaceable," Bowen said. But every Republican and Green Party vote is at Claypool's expense.

The hard-core countywide Democratic base is roughly 550,000 votes, or just over 40 percent; that's Berrios' vote ceiling. Claypool must garner 75 percent of the remaining 750,000 voters, or 565,000 votes, to triumph.

In 2006 Democratic incumbent Jim Houlihan got 1,008,398 votes, or 75.6 percent of the total cast, and the black Republican candidate, Ralph Conner, got 246,185 votes. The total vote for assessor was 1,254,583, but the total countywide vote was 1,350,915, showing a down-ballot drop-off of almost 100,000. Houlihan won the suburbs by 458,324-180,887, with 71.7 percent of the vote, and he won Chicago by 550,074-65,298, with 89.4 percent of the vote.

Houlihan got 253,630 votes in Chicago's 20 black-majority wards, or 46 percent of his total city vote, and he got 56,202 votes in the nine Hispanic-majority wards, or 10.1 percent of his city total. Here's an analysis:

Political bases. Claypool has been a county commissioner since 2002. He has been an outspoken critic of wasteful county spending, and he ran a high-profile race against the late John Stroger in the 2006 primary for county board president. "He's exceedingly well known, and he has high favorables," Bowen said. Claypool fielded more than 900 volunteers to gather 90,000 signatures to get on the ballot, and he has been endorsed by a raft of liberal and independent politicians but only two Democratic committeemen, Gene Schulter (47th) and Bob Fioretti (2nd).

Claypool expects to spend $2 million on television and radio buys, and he will get key newspaper endorsements. Barack Obama won Cook County in 2008 by a margin of 1,141,288 votes out of 2,162,240 cast, proving receptivity for a liberal, reform, pro-change candidate, but the assessor's office is buried on the ballot. Claypool will garner the backing of the studious voter, but not necessarily the casual voter. To win, Claypool must demonize Berrios, portraying him as a corrupt political insider. It's the "Sleazebag Strategy." In a year when voters are repelled by any ethically tarnished candidate, Claypool wins only if he goes negative on Berrios.

But Claypool has his own demons, especially in the black community. "To put it bluntly, (black voters) hate his guts," said one Democratic committeeman, with some exaggeration. "The question is, will they vote for a Hispanic to beat him?"

Claypool ran a belligerent race against Stroger in 2006, spending $2 million and barely losing. Stroger's stroke, just days before the primary, precipitated a huge black turnout. Otherwise, Claypool would have won.

Countywide, Stroger prevailed by 41,952 votes. Claypool won the suburbs by 46,978 votes, with 60.1 percent of the total cast, and Stroger won Chicago by 88,930 votes, with 61.8 percent of the vote. Stroger won the 20 black-majority wards by 148,686-28,801 (83.7 percent) and the eight Hispanic-majority wards by 18,802-15,752 (54.4 percent), while Claypool won the six Lakefront wards by 26,352-11,293 (70 percent) and the 10 Northwest Side and five Southwest Side predominantly white ethnic wards by 72,232-53,286 (57.6 percent).

The black vote was huge for Stroger, but it was the white pro-Daley committeemen who propelled Stroger to victory, delivering an overall Stroger vote of 42.4 percent in their wards.

Compare 2006 to February, when Berrios faced Robert Shaw, who is black, and fellow Hispanic Ray Figueroa in the Democratic primary and won with an anemic 39.1 percent of the vote while spending more than $1.5 million. Shaw won 19 of 20 black wards, carrying them by 82,646-36,657 over Berrios. Of Berrios' 120,179 votes in Chicago, a mere 12,725 emanated from Hispanic wards, and 70,797 came from predominantly white wards. But even on the Northwest Side, where Figueroa was perceived as the "reform" candidate, Berrios won by a tepid 27,059-19,505, with Shaw well behind. Berrios averaged 35.1 percent of the vote in the Lakefront wards.

Why such weakness? Over the past several years, the major media have relentlessly hammered Berrios for his alleged "pay to play" practices as a Board of Review commissioner, a perch where he has the power to reduce assessed valuations on residential and commercial property. He has raised hundreds of thousands of dollars from lawyers who practice before the board, and commercial property owners, represented by law firms headed by Ed Burke and Mike Madigan, among others, get hefty tax reductions. Being a Springfield lobbyist for the video gaming industry and the Democratic Party county chairman, further contribute to his odious reputation.

In the wake of Daley's retirement, the "Democratic Machine" is kaput. "It doesn't exist anymore," said Ed Kelly, the former 47th Ward Democratic committeeman and a onetime party powerhouse. The workers don't work, and the voters no longer vote as they're told, he said. That's horrific news for Berrios, who became the party's first Hispanic chairman just when it became meaningless.

The bottom line: Berrios is on radio stations that serve the black market ripping Claypool for cutting budgets when he was Chicago Park District superintendent, for imposing fees on kids' sports teams and for opposing John Stroger. "I'd be the first minority assessor," said Berrios, who is Puerto Rican. "He is a superficial politician. He just criticizes. He offers no solutions."

But black committeemen have no stake in a victory by Berrios. They're already squabbling over a 2011 mayoral contender. If they are energized for any November candidates who are not black, it will be Pat Quinn and Alexi Giannoulias, and their priority will be electing Toni Preckwinkle as county board president.

Among Hispanics, who cast barely 8 percent (90,000) of the countywide vote, Berrios claims "95 percent of the Hispanic elected officials" are behind him. But with four Hispanics (Luis Gutierrez, Miguel del Valle, Manny Flores and Gery Chico) angling to run for mayor, Berrios' election is not an urgent priority among Hispanics or among the candidates. "If four Hispanics run, they all lose," Berrios predicted.

And white committeemen, already scrambling to find a horse in the 2011 mayoral sweepstakes, are not about to expend energy or resources to rescue Berrios.

 Issues: Both candidates face a thorny situation. Property values are declining precipitously, but property taxes aren't. The reason: Government spending is rising. Berrios promises that the assessed valuation, set by the assessor's office, will reflect that decline, but he can't promise a tax reduction. Claypool points to Berrios' role at the Board of Appeals and asserts that tax reductions on commercial property shift the burden onto residential taxpayers. "Berrios' record proves he is a friend of the big corporations, not the average home owner," Bowen said.

But even if assessed valuations are reduced, the county's tax rate, based on what local governments need to operate, will continue to rise, so property taxes will not decline.

Berrios, according to Claypool's polling, is not well known. He does not have the iconic status of John Stroger, and Claypool's task is to define him as another Todd Stroger-like paragon of ineptitude and idiocy. Berrios will spend more than $1 million in targeted TV ads demonizing Claypool.

It boils down to this: Are voters going to make an effort to find Claypool on the ballot? And are they going to remember the anti-Berrios negativity?

My prediction: In a turnout of 1.3 million, it will be Claypool with 560,000 votes, to 550,000 for Berrios, 180,000 for Strobeck-Eckersall and 10,000 for Grota. Claypool will get enough of the black vote to eke out a win.