September 15, 2010
DALEY'S DECISION CAUSES HUGE "COLLATERAL DAMAGE"

ANALYSIS & OPINION BY RUSS STEWART

For every intentional action, there is invariably an unintended consequence. It's called collateral damage.

To assess the fluid field of 2011 Chicago mayoral aspirants at this early date, after Rich Daley's unexpected abdication, is wholly speculative. Uncertainty reigns, with as many as 20 ambitious politicians pondering a bid. The filing deadline is Nov. 22, and a minimum of 12,500 nominating petition signatures are required.

But this much is certain: There is considerable collateral damage.

First, in Chicago, the oxygen has been sucked out of the Nov. 2 election. The occupant of City Hall's fifth floor commands Illinois' political universe. And the focus of every astute Chicago politician over the next three months will be self-preservation -- in other words, allying with whom they perceive to be the next mayor or with whom they perceive to be the strongest contender in their area or ward.

Who cares whether Pat Quinn is elected governor or Alexi Giannoulias is elected U.S. senator? The next mayor of Chicago will serve through 2015, and perhaps for the next generation. Democratic committeemen, aldermen and other functionaries want a seat at the proverbial table. They will be spending the foreseeable future scheming and dealing to protect themselves, not exerting energy to elect Quinn or Giannoulias.

Second, the "Daley Dynasty" is over. Richard J. Daley was elected mayor in 1955 and served for 21 years, until his death in December of 1976 at age 74. In 1972 he anointed his son, Richard M. Daley, as his successor, making him a state senator and putting him on a track for the mayoralty, presumably in 1979 or 1983.

The elder Daley was reelected in 1975 with 58 percent of the vote, but his power was fading. Had he lived longer, would he have possessed the clout to clear the field and elect his son?

There is no looming "Next Daley." The mayor's younger brothers, John, a county commissioner, and Bill, a former U.S. Commerce Department secretary, are both in their 60s. Each is respected and capable, but without an emphatic mayoral endorsement, neither can win. Daley has said he will make no endorsement.

The mayor's son, Patrick, age 35, is on military assignment. He could have a political future, but it won't commence in 2011.

Third, Daley's aldermanic allies are now adrift. The mayor has $1.48 million in his campaign account, and he surely would have raised another $4 million. Daley spent $8 million in 2007 and $6.2 million in 2003.

Had Daley run in 2011, the election would have been a referendum on the mayor. And in order to ensure his ability to govern for the next four years -- which, in Chicago, means a compliant City Council -- Daley would have poured millions of dollars into the various Democratic ward organizations. The goal: To identify pro-Daley voters and bring them to the polls, and to elect pro-Daley aldermen.

Absent Daley, the 45-plus Daley aldermanic toadies will have to fend for themselves. There will be no trickle-down effect. They will have to raise their own money, upwards of $200,000, to run a viable race.

They also will have to convince their precinct captains, especially those with city or county jobs, that they can protect and promote them in the forthcoming Daleyless era. Given Shakman constraints, non-policy-making job holders cannot be fired for political reasons. Hence, many city workers may "go to ground" and divorce themselves from active political involvement.

Ditto for volunteers aspiring to get a city job. Will the aldermanic candidate have enough clout with the next mayor to get them a job?

Raising money and generating workers will be horrendously difficult.

Fourth, turnout in 2011 will be astronomical. Only 447,571 people voted for mayor in 2007, and only 442,772 in 2003. The number of registered voters in Chicago is 1,497,292. In 1989, when Daley was first elected, turnout was 870,387. In 1987, when Harold Washington beat Jane Byrne in the primary, turnout was 1,080,939. In 1983 it was 1,142,228. From 1983 to 2007, turnout declined by 840,531.

While most Chicagoans do not yet know who they want to be mayor, many know who they don't want, many more know which race they do or don't want. Expect nearly 900,000 Chicagoans to vote in 2011.

This will have a deleterious impact on sitting aldermen, whose ward base is finite. An outpouring of uncontrolled "casual" voters will spark the defeat of many incumbents.

Fifth, the Balkanization of Chicago has begun. Daley groomed no heir apparent, and there is no contender formidable enough to emerge as an instant front runner.

The nonpartisan "jungle primary" is set for Feb. 22. Candidates are listed only by name, without party affiliation. Should no contender receive more than 50 percent of the vote, an April 5 runoff between the top two will ensue. With a huge field anticipated for mayor, a runoff is certain.

Everybody's goal is the same, to get 25 percent, or 225,000 votes. And that's done by appealing to one's racial, ethnic, geographic, gender or sexual orientation base.

Blacks number about 600,00 registered voters and constitute roughly 40 percent of the city's electorate. Possible black candidates include state Senator James Meeks, the pastor of Salem Baptist Church, Chicago Housing Authority chairman and former alderman Terry Peterson, Circuit Court Clerk Dorothy Brown, U.S. Representatives Danny Davis and Jesse Jackson Jr., Aldermen Sandi Jackson, Leslie Hairston, Anthony Beale and Howard Brookins Jr., former U.S. senator Carol Moseley Braun, former state senator Emil Jones and White House advisor Valerie Jarrett. To make the runoff, a black candidate needs a 70 percent black turnout (420,000 votes) and needs to win at least 55 percent of the black base (230,000 votes); if too many black candidates run, none will make the runoff.

Hispanics number about 130,000 registered voters and constitute roughly 9 percent of the electorate. City Clerk Miguel del Valle has already announced, and U.S. Representative Luis Gutierrez, former alderman Manny Flores, Aldermen Danny Solis (22nd) and Ricardo Munoz (25th), and City Colleges Board of Trustees chairman Gery Chico are pondering bids. Rivalries exist between North Side Puerto Ricans (led by del Valle, Gutierrez and Cook County Democratic Party chairman Joe Berrios) and South Side Mexican Americans (led by Munoz and Solis). Alone, the Hispanic vote won't exceed 100,000, so del Valle needs a sizable white liberal vote; if another Hispanic candidate runs, he's doomed.

Whites number about 750,000 registered voters and constitute roughly 51 percent of the electorate, with about 560,000 expected to vote. To use a hackneyed expression, the white vote is split six ways from Sunday: geographically (Northwest Side versus Southwest Side), ideologically (conservative white ethnics versus Lakefront liberals), ethnically (Irish versus everybody else) and politically (Daley insiders versus independent reformers). Nuances will be critical.

Cook County Sheriff Tom Dart would be the Southwest Side/Irish/Daley insider candidate.  Alderman Tom Allen (38th) would be the Northwest Side/Irish/Daley outsider contender. If Alderman Ed Burke (14th) or state Comptroller Dan Hynes run, they'll undercut Dart's South Side support. If U.S. Representative Mike Quigley runs, he'll cut into Allen's base. Because of his high visibility as sheriff, Dart has crossover appeal to liberals and independents, who don't view him as a creature of the mayor.

Alderman Tom Tunney (44th), who is gay, can tap that vote, which is not more than 5 percent citywide.

Aldermen Bob Fioretti (2nd), Brendan Reilly (42nd) and Joe Moore (49th) and county Clerk David Orr would run as the "insider reformer," since they are office holders who have not criticized the mayor.  Quigley, Alderman Scott Waguespack (32nd) or former city inspector general David Hoffman would run as the vocal anti-Daley "outsider reformer."

Jim Houlihan, the outgoing county assessor, definitely will run. He has ties to the 19th Ward, and he lives on the Lakefront. He shaves votes from Dart.

And then there's Rahm Emanuel, the former Northwest Side congressman and current White House chief of staff, who has more than $2 million in his campaign account and who would be endorsed by President Obama. That would be helpful, but only in a runoff without a black candidate. Emanuel was once an aide and fund-raiser for Daley, making him an "insider insider." Being Jewish, he has some appeal to that vote, but he has no political base.

It is entirely possible that a field of six to eight white candidates could so fractionalize the 560,000-plus white vote as to assure a Meeks-del Valle runoff. Dart has the best chance to amass the magic 25 percent, but if he faces Allen, Fioretti, Quigley, Burke, Hoffman, Tunney and Emanuel, he would poll well under 175,000 votes.

But consider this: If there are 15 or more candidates on the ballot, including a multitude of minority candidates, 15 percent, or 135,000 votes, could be enough to make the runoff.

My prediction: The mayoral contest will be fought in the media, not the precincts. The candidate that raises the most money, exclusively targeting his or her base, will win. Chicago's next mayor will not be black or Hispanic, although Meeks is formidable. It will be Dart, Allen, Fioretti or Hoffman.