September 29, 2010
BERRIOS PLAYS "OBAMA CARD" IN ASSESSOR'S RACE AGAINST CLAYPOOL
Right time. Right place. That's the epic path to victory. Forrest Claypool, a Democratic county commissioner, is 2010's "Independent Party" candidate for county assessor. He got 90,000 signatures to get on the ballot. A Democrat has held that powerful office since the 1920s. To replace the retiring Jim Houlihan, Democrats nominated Joe Berrios, a Board of Review commissioner and county Democratic chairman -- albeit unimpressively. In the Feb. 2 primary, Berrios got only 39.1%. Claypool is hyping himself as the "reform" candidate, ripping Berrios as an ethically-challenged "pay-to-play" insider. Berrios is invoking President Obama, asserting that Obama will lose Illinois -- and the presidency -- if Republicans win statewide office, and he loses for assessor. That's non-sense. Berrios also calls Claypool an opportunist, which is true. Turnout will be 1.3 million. Berrios needs 2/3rds of the black vote to win. Claypool needs 75% of the non-Machine base vote. If the Republican gets more than 20%, Claypool loses. My prediction: In a squeaker, Claypool wins 560,000-550,000. Full Article...
September 22, 2010
CULLERTON FACES FIASCO: REPUBLICANS POISED TO WIN ILLINOIS SENATE
With his hefty 37-22 "super-majority" in the Illinois Senate, "Big John" Cullerton is a Big Man in Springfield. He can override any governor's veto, and pass any tax hike. But he has an Achilles' Heel: In 2009, Cullerton and his culpable Democratic stooges passed a state income tax hike (which never was approved by the House) -- and they'll do it again in 2011 if Democrats retain their majority. However, Republicans are using the anti-tax theme and are surging. Democrats could lose up to 8 seats. If they take a majority, Cullerton will be "Little John." Sure to flip are the 10th (NW Side Chicago), 22nd (Elgin), 31st (Libertyville), and 49th (Carlinville) districts; Republicans have a shot in the 52nd (Champaign), 43rd (Bolingbrook), 40th (Kankakee) and 19th (Orland Park) districts. Cullerton will spend $5 million, but will lose at least 6 seats. Attached to this article is a 2010 Vote Chart detailing the votes of area senators. Full Article...
September 15, 2010
DALEY'S DECISION CAUSES HUGE "COLLATERAL DAMAGE"
Mayor Rich Daley has wrought considerable "collateral damage" with his abrupt decision to retire in 2011. Chicago will be Balkanized, as a flood of mayoral contenders pander to their racial, geographic, ethnic, gender (and even sexual orientation) bases. The magic number is 225,000 -- roughly 25% of the turnout. That's what it will take to finish among the top two in the Feb. 22 primary, and move on to the April 5 runoff. Turnout will be over 900,000. Of the city's 1.5 million registered voters, roughly 750,000 are white, 600,000 black, and 130,000 Hispanic. That gives the edge to whichever white -- Dart, Allen, Fioretti or Hoffman -- manages to get into a runoff with a black. Full Article...
September 8, 2010
SCHULTER, MORENO SECURE IN 2011 ALDERMANIC RCES IN 47TH & 1ST WARDS
Call it "whitehaven." Chicago's 47th Ward, which encompasses Ravenswood, Northcenter and Lincoln Square, is contiguous, liberal, upscale, 70% owner-occupied, white, and very enamored with its alderman, Gene Schulter. After 35 years in office, there is no "Schulter fatigue." He's bland but hardworking. He has $889,711 in the his campaign account -- which discourages opposition. Seeking another term in 2011, Schulter, 62, cites 3 accomplishments: A citywide moratorium on liquor sales, reforms in the building department, and a downzoning of his ward, which blocked a rash of knockdowns and condo conversions. Schulter is unbeatable. In the very diverse and non-contiguous 1st Ward, which Manny Flores abandoned to be the state ICC chairman, appointed Ald. Procho "Joe" Moreno has quickly entrenched himself. The ward consists of Hispanic precincts along Western Ave. (Belmont to Chicago Ave.), plus most of Wicker Park, Ukrainian Village and East Bucktown, mostly white and filled with yuppies. Moreno, like Flores, is an upscale Mexican-American, and appeals to both constituencies. Moreno is unbeatable. Full Article...
September 1, 2010
ALDERMANIC CONTESTS UNDERWAY IN NW SIDE 41ST, 45TH AND 36TH WARDS
Mother Nature skipped Chicago. There aren't four seasons. There's just one: All politics, all the time, without respite, and with overlap. The 2010 campaign will culminate on Nov. 2, but candidates for Chicago alderman, and for citywide office (mayor, clerk, treasurer) began circulating their nominating petitions on Aug. 24. In the Northwest Side's 41st, 45th and 36th wards, there have been notable developments. In the 41st, Alderman Brian Doherty, who is running as a Republican for state senator, is retiring. He has endorsed his aide, Maurita Gavin; also running are Mary O'Connor, the ward's Democratic committeeman, police officer Richard Gonzalez, consultant Jim Soreng, and 2007 loser Mike Hannon. Democrats will spend $300,000 to beat Doherty for senator, and he had to foreswear a 2011 race for re-election to remain viable. In the 45th Ward, Alderman Pat Levar faces at least 7 challengers, the most formidable being Don Blair, John Garrido, and John Arena. In the 36th Ward, appointed Alderman John Rice, the annointed choice of ex-Ald. Bill Banks (the ward's Democratic committeeman), faces a large field, including 2007 loser Nick Sposato. When an incumbent runs, the race is a referendum on the alderman; Levar has serious problems. Gavin and Rice are tied to the retiring/former aldermen. They could suffer. In an open seat race, with multiple candidates, a runoff is expected. Each contender must establish a niche, and get at least 30%. Full Article...
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