August 25, 2010
REPUBLICANS EXPET 6-SEAT GAIN IN ILLINOIS HOUSE

ANALYSIS & OPINION BY RUSS STEWART

Ludicrous. Absurd. Impossible.

That's the retort of Illinois House Speaker Mike Madigan's strategists concerning the likelihood of a Republican takeover in 2010. The Democrats control the House by a 70-48 margin, so at least 12 Democratic seats would have to flip.

Just a year ago the Democrats hoped to gain two more seats, giving Madigan a veto-proof super majority. No longer. The 2010 political environment has grown toxic for Democrats and incumbents, so losses are certain -- but not enough to oust Madigan.

"We will definitely gain six seats," predicted state Representative Mike McAuliffe (R-20), who said that four more are "in play."

Madigan, however, has a powerful weapon: Money. As of July 1 he had $3.4 million in campaign funds, and he will raise another $2 million if necessary. He can inundate key districts with mailings and manpower. Spending $400,000 in a district can overcome a lot of toxicity.

Here's the outlook:

56th District (Schaumburg, Roselle): Paul Froehlich, who was first elected in 2002, was the Schaumburg Township Republican committeeman when he defected to the Democrats in 2007. Deemed a Judas, Republicans made a Herculean effort to beat him in 2008, but he won by 6,379 votes, with 56.7 percent of the votes cast. Froehlich then got caught in a scandal and retired. The Republican nominee for November is Ryan Higgins, a 28-year-old political operative; the Democratic candidate is Michelle Mussman. Both are unknown, so it will be a straight party contest, giving Higgins an edge. There's no way Madigan can buy this seat, and there's no negativity to plumb in Higgins' background. Outlook: Likely Republican takeover.

43rd District (Elgin, Carpentersville): This is a chronically marginal district. Democrat Keith Farnham beat Republican incumbent Ruth Munson by 295 votes in 2008; Munson won by 1,137 votes in 2006 and by 387 votes in 2004. Farnham is Springfield's Rodney Dangerfield: He gets no respect. He sponsored a bill for a forensic audit of state spending, but the Democrats killed it in the Rules Committee. He passed a bill to provide $22 million to the Elgin school district, but the governor vetoed it.

Munson is back for a 2010 rematch. Farnham had $13,400 in his campaign account, to $12,859 for Munson. Farnham spent $270,888 in 2008, to Munson's $246,124. Will Madigan spend $400,000 here? Or is Farnham hopeless? Outlook: Leans Republican.

66th District (Mount Prospect, Elk Grove, Rolling Meadows, part of Arlington Heights): Held by Republican Carolyn Krause for 16 years, Krause's anointed successor, Christine Prochno, failed to hold the seat in 2008. The winner, by 2,048 votes (with 52.5 percent of the votes cast), was Democrat Mark Walker, a protege of state Senator Dan Kotowski (D-28), who campaigned relentlessly door to door. Walker spent $357,570, to $118,318 for Prochno, and he was helped by the "Obama Wave."

This year former Republican state Representative David Harris, who served from 1983 to 1992, is attempting a comeback. He is a retired stockbroker and the former adjutant general of the Illinois National Guard, where he handled the state's troop deployment in "Operation Iraqi Freedom." Walker has worked hard to entrench himself, and Madigan will surely dump $300,000-plus into the district. Outlook: Toss-up.

44th District (Hoffman Estates, Streamwood): Democrat Fred Crespo, another ex-Republican, beat an incumbent in 2006 by 915 votes and kept the seat in 2008 by 11,979 votes, getting 68.3 percent of the vote. He spent $282,215 in 2008, and he should be safe. But he faces a very formidable 2010 opponent in popular Republican Streamwood Mayor Billie Diane Roth, who lost an Illinois Senate race in 2006, getting 46.2 percent of the vote, but who was reelected mayor with 63 percent of the vote.

Crespo will be hammered for supporting a number of tax and fee hikes, and the Democrats will attempt to find some negativity in Roth's mayoral administration. Each party will spend upwards of $250,000. Outlook: Slight edge to the Democrat.

71st District (East Moline, Geneseo, near Quad Cities): Incumbent Democrat Mike Boland finished a dismal fourth of six in the spring primary for lieutenant governor, opening this seat, which he held for 16 years. The candidates are Republican Rich Morthland, a Rock Island County Board member and a farmer, and Democrat Dennis Ahern, a salesman for Alcoa. Morthland is the only Republican member of the county board, which raised salaries of all county employees by 12.5 percent (a 52 percent increase since 2000) and then required union workers to take furloughs.

Voter anger is palpable. Morthland voted against the hikes, which buttresses his theme of opposing a state income tax hike. Ahern also has pledged to oppose any state tax hike. Madigan's money won't help. Outlook: Certain Republican takeover.

98th District (Taylorville, Litchfield in Southwest Downstate): Popular incumbent Democrat Gary Hannig was appointed state transportation director in 2009 and replaced by his wife, who is not running for election. A fractious Democratic primary ensued, and the winner was Charles Landers, the retired Macoupin County coroner. The Republican candidate is Wayne Rosenthal, a National Guard officer with deep local roots. Hannig held the seat effortlessly since 1978, but local Democrats already concede a Rosenthal victory. Outlook: Certain Republican takeover.

112th District (Edwardsville, Collinsville, near East Saint Louis): Incumbent Democrat Jay Hoffman lives in infamy as disgraced former governor Rod Blagojevich's House floor leader. As such, he's detested by Madigan and reviled by the Republicans. In 2008, after spending $661,466, Hoffman defeated Republican Dwight Kay won by 8,142 votes, with 57.3 percent of the votes cast.

Blagojevich is neither gone nor forgotten. Madigan will not assist Hoffman. Kay is back for a rematch, and he will be well funded; he spent $340,451 in 2008. In every election cycle, one longtime incumbent is upset. This year it looks like Hoffman. Outlook: Toss-up.

Five more Democratic seats are at some risk.

In the 85th District (Bolingbrook, Romeoville), Democrat Emily McAsey beat the incumbent Republican in 2008 by 9,053 votes, getting 58.6 percent of the vote. The district has a growing Hispanic population. McAsey faces Republican Maripat Oliver in November. Outlook: Likely Democratic.

In the 92nd District (Peoria suburbs), Democrat Jehan Gordon won an open seat in 2008 by just 2,186 votes; she faces Jim Montelongo. Outlook: Democrat favored.

In the 59th District (Vernon Hills, Buffalo Grove, Wheeling), where incumbent Democrat Kathy Ryg resigned, appointed Democrat Carol Sente won a nasty primary against the mayor of Buffalo Grove. She faces Dan Sugrue. Outlook: Leans Democratic.

     In the 75th District (Morris, southwest of Interstate 80 and Interstate 55), Democrat Careen Gordon has held the seat since 2002. She faces a credible opponent in Sue Rezin. Outlook: Democrat favored.

In the 36th District (Evergreen Park, Oak Lawn, Chicago Ridge), vacated by Democrat Jim Brosnahan, who became a judge, Kelly Burke beat the Madigan-Dan Lipinski choice in the Democratic primary. That gives Republican Rich Grabowski an opening. Outlook: Democrat favored.

Only one Republican seat is at risk:

17th District (Glenview, Wilmette, Morton Grove, north Skokie): Incumbent Beth Coulson, who lost the 10th District Republican primary for Congress, won by only 1,581 votes in 2008; that's significantly less than her 2006 and 2004 margins of 7,101 and 4,107 votes, respectively.

Coulson's 2008 foe, Daniel Biss, is running again, after spending $413,440 in his first race and having raised $244,546 since then. He refuses to take any money from Madigan. The Republican candidate is Hamilton Chang, a first-generation Taiwanese American and a prosperous businessman; he has raised $56,003. The key: Coulson survived outpourings of anti-Bush voters (2006) and pro-Obama voters (2008). But Biss is now better known, and he openly supports an income tax hike. However, there aren't many Tea Party adherents in this affluent district. Outlook: Toss-up.

My prediction: Madigan will remain the speaker, but with a reduced 63-55 majority.

Adjacent is a 2010 roll call chart. It includes area Republicans McAuliffe, Coulson and Rosemary Mulligan and Democrats Lou Lang, Joe Lyons, John D'Amico, Sara Feigenholtz, Deb Mell and John Fritchey, who is running for the Cook County Board. McAuliffe, Lang and D'Amico are unopposed. Democrat Ann Williams will replace Fritchey. Mulligan, Mell, Lyons and Feigenholtz will win easily.