June 16, 2010

TALE OF 3 CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICTS: "NATIONALIZATION" IS AFOOT

ANALYSIS & OPINION BY RUSS STEWART

Anger plus diminution plus nationalization equals aberration -- and victory.

That's the formula for success espoused by David Ratowitz, the woefully obscure 5th U.S. House District Republican candidate, lawyer and former Army ranger who believes that he is 2010's reincarnation of Michael Patrick Flanagan, the equally obscure Republican who upset powerhouse Democratic U.S. Representative Dan Rostenkowski in 1994. Flanagan served one term in Congress.

Ratowitz is challenging incumbent Democrat Mike Quigley, who was elected in a special 2009 election to replace Rahm Emanuel, now the White House chief of staff.

According to a USA Today/Gallup poll taken in June, 63 percent of the sampling would vote against their representative in Congress, while 32 percent would support the incumbent. "I detect a lot of anger out there, especially about Washington," Ratowitz said.

That means that the fall election is becoming "nationalized," and that it will be a referendum on Obama and Democratic policies -- as it was on Bush and the Republicans in 2006 and 2008. It will not be a choice between candidates, as it is when the election is "localized." That gives Ratowitz a chance.

A Republican has won the district recently. In 2006 Tony Peraica got 56.8 percent of the vote for Cook County Board president against Todd Stroger, the flawed appointed incumbent.

Unfortunately for Ratowitz, the 5th District is not a microcosm of the nation, and Quigley is not an entrenched, flawed or corrupt incumbent. Barack Obama won the district in 2008 by 181,458-63,733, getting 73 percent of the vote. John Kerry won the district in 2004 by 161,348-79,349, with 67 percent of the vote, Al Gore won in 2000 by 130,064-68,942, with 63 percent of the vote, and Bill Clinton won it in 1996 120,132-56,532, getting 63 percent of the vote.

That shows a clear Democratic trend, with the party's vote surging by 61,326 over four elections and the Republican vote stagnating. Emanuel, who was first elected in 2002, won in 2008 by 170,528-50,881, getting 74 percent of the vote. To the rational observer, that makes it an overwhelmingly Democratic bastion.

Yet Ratowitz expresses skepticism.

First, Ratowitz said, Quigley's "liberalism does not fit the district." In a much publicized snit fit, the newly elected Quigley threatened to withhold his support and the support of other pro-abortion rights representatives from the president's health care "reform" bill if the Stupak Amendment, which barred federal coverage of abortion expenses, was included. The Democratic leadership (and U.S. Representative Bart Stupak of Michigan) capitulated, abortion coverage was guaranteed in the "public option" portion of the bill, and Quigley voted for the measure.

"(Quigley) has been an automatic Obama vote on every issue," Ratowitz said, contending that the "Obama agenda is not popular" in the 5th District.

Quigley, despite his lack of seniority, has emerged as an "activist" liberal, sponsoring or cosponsoring the kind of legislation eschewed by his high-seniority peers, such as a ban on automatic congressional pay raises, expanded ethics reform and greater transparency through access to government documents.

"He's a do-gooder gone to Washington," said one local Democratic official who opposed Quigley in 2009. "He was an annoying and pesky (county) commissioner. Now he's where he can't do much damage."

There is no doubt that Quigley is not a "career congressman." His goal is to be Chicago's mayor, and he took a step up the ladder in 2009. When Rich Daley retires, in either 2011 or 2015, Quigley will run.

Second, Ratowitz professes that Democratic turnout will be significantly lower in November than in past elections, that the Republican base vote is at least 50,000, that 81,000 votes are "in play," and that he needs to flip 32,000 prior Democratic votes to win. "Those voters who were most enthusiastic about Obama in 2008 will be the least inclined to vote in 2010," Ratowitz said.

Past voter statistics give credence to his claim. District turnout in the presidential years of 2008, 2004, 2000, 1996 and 1992 was, respectively, 245,191, 240,697, 205,636, 189,579 and 243,422, or an average of 224,905 per election. In the non-presidential years of 2006, 2002, 1998 and 1994, turnout in the congressional race was 146,569, 159,435, 129,425, and 138,393, or an average of 143,455 per election. That means that there are roughly 80,000 fewer voters in off-year elections.

In 1994, a huge Republican year, Flanagan beat Rostenkowski, who was then under a 17-count indictment for embezzlement, fraud and witness tampering, by 75,328-63,065, getting 54 percent of the vote. In 2006, a huge Democratic year, Emanuel beat Republican Kevin White by 114,319-32,250, with 78 percent of the vote.

In 2006, 2002, 1998 and 1994, the Democratic congressional vote was, respectively, 114,319, 106,514, 95,738 and 63,065, an average of 94,909, while the Republican vote was 32,250, 46,008, 33,687 and 75,328, an average of 46,818. The average off-year Democratic vote is twice the Republican vote. To win, Ratowitz needs 30,000 Democrats to abandon Quigley.

Third, Quigley, age 51, who was a Cook County commissioner from 1998 to 2009, has yet to put down solid roots. In the 2009 primary, against two state representatives and an alderman, Quigley won with 22 percent of the vote, getting 12,118 votes in a turnout of 50,986. In the ensuing election, in an anemic turnout of 44,134, Quigley beat Republican Roseanna Pulido 30,561-10,662, getting 69 percent of the vote, with 2,911 votes to the Green Party candidate. Quigley's political base is in the eastern end of the district, in the 44th and 46th wards along the Lakefront, which makes up less than a fifth of the district.

Fourth, according to federal disclosure documents, Quigley's campaign account has less than $240,000 on hand. When Emanuel resigned to join the administration, he had nearly $1.5 million. Clearly, Quigley is not an obsessive or prodigious fundraiser. Ratowitz expects to spend $100,000.

Fifth, in the past decade, Quigley and county Commissioner Forrest Claypool worked to cut county spending and institute reforms. Now Claypool is attempting to get on the ballot to run as an independent for county assessor against Joe Berrios, the Democratic county chairman. Will Quigley endorse him? If he does, that will infuriate every local Democratic committeeman, who will reciprocate by doing nothing for Quigley. If he doesn't, that will be viewed as a sellout, proof that Quigley is just another self-serving politician.

The 5th District extends from Lincoln Park and Oak Street Beach west past Wrigley Field to the Polish-American and Ukrainian-American enclaves near Milwaukee and Ashland avenues through the Machine-dominated 33rd, 47th, 39th, 40th, 45th, 38th and 36th wards plus part of the 41st Ward, and into the western suburbs to the DuPage County line. The district was 28 percent Hispanic, according to the 2000 census.

Once upon a time, up through the 1990s, the Northwest Side had enough population to warrant two congressional districts: The 8th District, which was occupied by Rostenkowski from 1958 to 1994, and the 11th District, which was held by Roman Pucinski from 1958 to 1972 and by Frank Annunzio until 1992. The two were collapsed into one district in 1992, and Annunzio made way for Rostenkowski.

The new 5th District was supposed to be an "ethnic" enclave, given the district's large Polish-American population, but since Rostenkowski's demise all the congressmen have come from the upscale east end of the district, Rod Blagojevich (1997 to 2002), who defeated Flanagan in 1996, Emanuel (2003 to 2009) and Quigley.

Ratowitz embraces Reaganomics, and he is sharply critical of Obama's fiscal philosophy. "Over 80 percent of all new jobs are created by small businesses," he said. "Yet the Obama-Quigley plan is to use tax dollars to bail out failed corporations and banks. We need to cut federal income taxes so that businesses can reinvest profits and create jobs."

The outlook: Ratowitz's hapless Republican predecessors barely got a quarter of the vote. The Blagojevich trial and the festering culture of corruption in the state, county and city, coupled with national issues, give voters a reason to vote Republican, but that will boost Ratowitz to only 40 percent of the vote. Quigley will win.

Unlike the 5th District, anger and diminution could elect Republicans in the 8th U.S. House District, occupied by Democrat Melissa Bean, and the14th District, held by Democrat Bill Foster, both of whom are staunch Obama supporters.

Bean upset Republican Phil Crane in the McHenry County-area district in 2004. She won 179,444-116,081 (with 59 percent of the vote) in 2008, almost identical to Obama's 170,333-130,384 (56 percent), spending $2.9 million. The 2008 turnout was over 300,000, but in November it will revert to the level of 185,000 in 2006. Republican candidate Joe Walsh has some serious personal issues, but he can win if the race is a referendum on Obama-Bean.

Foster, in the exurban Kane-Kendall county district, beat Jim Oberweis in a nationally watched 2008 special election to replace former Republican House speaker Dennis Hastert; he won the special election 52,205-47,180, with 53 percent of the vote, and the general election 185,404-135,653, with 58 percent of the vote, also almost identical to Obama's 181,329-145,345 win, spending $5 million. The turnout in 2008 was over 325,000, but in November it will revert to the 195,000 level of 2006. The Republican candidate, state senator Randy Hultgren, is unflawed and well financed. Expect Foster to lose.