March 31, 2010
"THE NASTY, THE DUMB AND THE LUCKY" IN 2010 NW SIDE LEGISLATIVE RACEOS
ANALYSIS & OPINION BY RUSS STEWART
To bastardize the title of the classic 1960s movie, "The Nasty, the Dumb and the Lucky" is an apt description of Democratic primary outcomes in three area contests for seats in the Illinois General Assembly.
In the North Lakefront 7th Illinois Senate district, first-term incumbent Heather Steans withstood a withering attack on her record, her connections and her competency by Jim Madigan, a University of Chicago law professor who spent $120,000. "He ran a nasty, ugly campaign, filled with slurs and innuendo," said Carol Ronen, Steans' predecessor.
Steans beat Madigan by 13,977-7,595, getting 64.8 percent of the vote.
In the Lakeview/Ravenswood/North Center 11th Illinois House district, being vacated by Democratic state Representative John Fritchey, the sins of the father doomed the son.
Attorney Dan Farley is the son of Bruce Farley, a spectacularly undistinguished state representative (1973 to 1992) and state senator (1993 to 1998) who, as Ed Kelly's protege, greedily slurped at the public trough, perpetually holding a second payroll job. "The Blob," as the elder Farley was known, was finally ousted by Lisa Madigan in 1998.
Dan Farley, despite backing by the supposedly potent ward organization of Alderman Gene Schulter (47th), lost to Ann Williams by 5,662-3,927, with 2,659 votes for Ed Mullen, a social service attorney. Farley, the early favorite, got only 32.1 percent of the vote. In the 47th Ward he received only 43.5 percent.
In Evanston's 18th Illinois House District, being vacated by Democratic state Representative Julie Hamos, gender and generation proved fortuitous for Robyn Gabel, the only woman in the race against four men. Gabel was supported by U.S. Representative Jan Schakowsky (D-9) and her Evanston "Jan/Bob Machine," run by the congresswoman and her husband, Bob Creamer. Gabel won with a desultory 27.1 percent of the vote.
The four men -- Jeff Smith, Ed Moran, Eamon Kelly and Patrick Keenan-Devlin -- amassed a combined 72.9 percent of the vote, getting 1,707, 1,613, 3,709 and 3,875 votes, respectively. Gabel had 4,066 votes, leading the field by 197 votes. Had one or more of the four male candidates not run, the lucky Gabel surely would have lost.
Here's an analysis:
7th District: Steans is the antithesis of a Chicago career politician. A wealthy socialite and a philanthropist, she is more comfortable inside an opera house or corporate boardroom than a political headquarters. Steans' father was LaSalle Bank's chief executive officer, but Steans and her husband, lobbyist and attorney Leo Smith, decided to create a political action committee, which they personally funded.
Over the past decade the committee donated nearly $1 million to various politicians, including $200,000 to Rod Blagojevich, $100,000 to then-Senate President Emil Jones and $30,000 to Ronen; it also gave $150,000 to Republicans.
When Ronen, the 48th Ward Democratic committeeman, resigned as state senator in November of 2007 to take a job as Blagojevich's chief of staff and increase her pension, she anointed the unknown Steans as her successor. For the Steans/Smith PAC, their insider investment reaped its anticipated reward -- and unleashed howls of protest from district activists.
In the 2008 primary, Steans faced Suzanne Elder, a 25-year district resident with a background in government consulting. Her candidacy's rationale was threefold: Steans had no record of community involvement. Steans' appointment was tarnished and greased. Steans "bought" the job.
But Steans spent $184,423, to Elder's $13,497, noted that she had a master's degree from Harvard and relied on Ronen and other Democratic committeemen to deliver. They did. Steans won by 21,371-12,410, with 63.3 percent of the vote, getting a hefty 64.2 percent in the 48th Ward and doing equally well in the 49th Ward (63.3 percent), 47th Ward (68.9 percent), 46th Ward (58.7 percent) and 40th Ward (60.7 percent).
In the past 2 years Steans has emerged as a visible and productive senator. She broke with the liberal mold and supported charter schools, helped create commercial composting facilities and sponsored a bill mandating external review by the state department of insurance for denied health claims. "Compared to Ronen, it's been like night and day," said one Democratic politician. "At least she's around."
Madigan's 2010 attacks can be summarized in eight words: Corrupt appointment. Corrupt governor. Incompetent performance. Gay marriage. Madigan, who is gay, tied Steans to the impeached governor and the greedy Ronen. He blasted her for not supporting gay marriage. He argued that Senate seats should be earned, not bought. He belittled Steans' legislative record.
The voters' verdict: It's old news. Steans spent $250,000, pounded Madigan by 4,582-2,387 in the 48th Ward, with 65.8 percent of the vote, and increased her margin in every other ward. She has proven herself more than just an artsy-fartsy pretty face.
11th District: Fritchey, the 32nd Ward Democratic committeeman, has held this seat since 1996, when it was vacated by Blagojevich, who ran for Congress. The son-in-law of the brother of 36th Ward Alderman Bill Banks, Fritchey got the seat as part of a deal to gain Banks' support for Blagojevich. After losing a 2009 bid for Rahm Emanuel's congressional seat, Fritchey decided to bail from Springfield and seek Forrest Claypool's Cook County Board seat.
The 47th Ward had been devoid of a state legislator since Bruce Farley was trounced 13,095-6,725 by Lisa Madigan for senator in the 1998 primary. Schulter wanted the seat for his ward, and he cut a deal with Fritchey: Schulter would deliver for Fritchey in his battle with former 32nd Ward alderman Ted Matlak, while Fritchey, remaining publicly neutral, would try to aid Farley in the 32nd Ward.
But the best laid plans often go awry.
Williams, an obscure former staffer for Lisa Madigan and a lobbyist for a pharmaceutical company, scented an opportunity. Her base was in the Wicker Park-Lakeview 32nd Ward. She was a woman running against two men, and her principal opponent was "Son of Blob."
Campaigning as a reformer, Williams won the 32nd Ward over Farley by 1,926-874, getting 52.7 percent of the vote, with 857 votes to Mullen, a margin of 1,052 votes. In the 47th Ward, where Farley needed at least 60 percent of the vote, Williams lost 2,188-1,880, with 959 votes to Mullen, a margin of 308 votes. Williams won a plurality in every other ward, and she triumphed by 1,735 votes.
"Blame this on Gene's arrogance," said one area committeeman. "He didn't consult with us. He decided he wanted Farley, and the Farley name is still poison." Ironically, Fritchey won the 47th Ward by 6,401-1,147 over Matlak, running 4,213 votes ahead of Farley. For Schulter, Farley was an incredibly dumb choice.
18th District: Hamos' bid for Congress in the 10th District opened this seat, which was held by Schakowsky from 1991 to 1998, prior to her election to Congress in the 9th District. Gabel, age 56, is of the Schakowsky-Hamos -- meaning Baby Boomer -- generation. She is the executive director of a health coalition, she was a staffer for Luis Gutierrez in the 1980s when he was a Chicago alderman, and she has a close association with social service agencies and nonprofit groups.
Kelly and Keenan-Devlin were the proverbial wunderkinds in the race, representing the next generation of Evanston liberals. Kelly, age 29, is a second-year lawyer and has served as an intern to Blagojevich's deputy governor, former governor George Ryan and the chief of staff to the Illinois Board of Education; he was endorsed by Ronen and county Commissioner Larry Suffredin.
Keenan-Devlin, age 25, a law student, is a former field organizer and lobbyist at Citizen Action, and he was endorsed by the AFL-CIO, AFSCME, SEIU and UFCW unions.
Both candidates ran grass roots campaigns. Both touted themselves as representing "generational change." Both promised to be "independent" voices in Springfield. Both possessed credible resumes, despite their youth. Both had serious endorsements. Both appealed to the same voter base. And, jointly, they received 7,584 votes, or 50.7 percent of the total cast. Had one not run, the other would have won.
Smith, a 52-year-old attorney, is a longtime liberal activist, but he is not part of the "Jan/Bob Machine." He was endorsed by two former Evanston mayors and the current mayor, six former or current Evanston aldermen, Chicago Alderman Joe Moore (49th) and the liberal Democracy for America. Smith ran as the "experienced" liberal, but he got only 1,707 votes, or 11.4 percent of the total cast. He and Gabel split their base of Baby Boomer liberals. Their combined vote was 5,773, or 38.5 percent of the votes cast.
The fifth candidate, former Evanston alderman Ed Moran, ran as a pro-life conservative, and he got 1,613 votes (10.8 percent of the vote) -- proving conclusively that 89.2 percent of the district's Democrats are hard-core liberals.
The implications:
First, the "Jan/Bob Machine" ain't what it used to be. Of the 10,963 votes cast in Evanston, Gabel got 3,232, or 29.5 percent of the total. In the Wilmette portion of the district, in New Trier Township, Gabel got only 20.8 percent of the vote, and the combined Kelly/Keenan-Devlin vote was 56.9 percent.
Second, a new generation of politically astute young liberals is emerging.
And third, gender appears to be fading as a voting criterion. Almost 60 percent of the district's voters were women, but more than half of them didn't vote for Gabel. Luckily, against four men, Gabel's gender provided just enough votes to win.