March 24, 2010
KIRK-GIANNOULIAS US SENATE RACE IS A "BATTLE OF BAGGAGE"

ANALYSIS & OPINION BY RUSS STEWART

In the U.S. Senate race in Illinois, bags won't fly free. They may be grounded, or intentionally lost. In fact, the contest between Republican Mark Kirk and Democrat Alexi Giannoulias can be dubbed the "Battle of the Baggage."

The candidate with the least bad judgment and fewest personal flaws will win, and right now Kirk's "baggage" is the lightest and least repugnant.

Luckily for both, Illinois does not, like Nevada, have a mandatory "None of the Above" line on the ballot. That entry would get 20 percent of the vote in November. The performance of Kirk and Giannoulias in the Feb. 2 primary was uninspiring. Neither evokes much excitement, but one will win.

In the Republican primary, 43.4 percent of the 742,266 voters voted against Kirk. Despite prominence and credibility emanating from five terms as a congressman from the North Shore, near-unanimous media endorsements and plenty of money, plus the backing of virtually every suburban township and Chicago ward committeeman, Kirk got 420,373 votes, or 56.6 percent of the total cast.

The remaining 321,893 votes were spread among desultory opposition, none of whom were well known or well funded. The second-place finisher, conservative businessman Pat Hughes, got 142,928 votes (19.2 percent of the total cast). The rest of the field and their votes were retired judge Don Lowery (66,357), school official Kathy Thomas (54,038), Internet blogger Andy Martin (37,480) and businessman John Arrington (21,090).

Clearly, Kirk had baggage. In a decade in Washington, he developed a reputation as a congenital "wind sock," voting the socially liberal inclinations of his upscale district on issues such as abortion, gay rights, gun control and environmental protection, but usually siding with Republican conservatives on fiscal issues. As a U.S. Navy Reserve officer, Kirk strongly backed the Bush Administration on Iraq and Afghanistan, but he flip-flopped on troop strength numbers.

Kirk supported cap-and-trade legislation and the bank bailout, which enraged conservatives, but he then opposed the Obama stimulus bill and the health care "reform" package, which infuriated liberals. In short, he voted in such a way as to get himself reelected, exhibiting no ideological compass. Also, Martin questioned the recently divorced Kirk's sexual orientation, an allegation which probably resonated with some Republican voters but which will not be used by the Democrats in the campaign.

"He's completely untrustworthy," one conservative activist said of Kirk. "Sure, he's better than a liberal Democrat, but just barely." The conservatives' suspicion is that Kirk, as senator, will be a RINO (Republican In Name Only), a 21st Century incarnation of much detested former senator Chuck Percy, who served from 1967 to 1984 and whose every vote was calculated for political survival.

To be sure, Kirk ran exceedingly well in the Cook County suburbs, getting 69.9 percent of the vote, but that declined to 61.1 percent in Chicago, to 62.8 percent in the Collar Counties of DuPage, Lake, Will, McHenry and Kane, and to just 47.0 percent Downstate.

In sum, to know Kirk was to not love him, but he was perceived as a winner, and that was enough.

If Kirk's numbers were soft, Giannoulias's were positively squishy. In the Democratic primary, 61.1 percent of the 904,771 voters voted against him. Despite a term as Illinois treasurer, notoriety as President Barack Obama's basketball-playing buddy, plenty of money and the backing of most Downstate county chairmen and Daley-connected committeemen, Giannoulias got 352,202 votes, or 38.9 percent of the total cast.

The remaining 552,569 votes were spread out among four contenders, two of whom targeted a Democratic constituency and spent heavily on media ads: David Hoffman liberal and independent voters and Cheryle Jackson black voters.

Hoffman, the former Chicago inspector general and Daley critic, finished a very respectable second, with 304,757 votes (33.7 percent of the total cast). Jackson, who is black, danced around the fact that she was a top aide to former governor Rod Blagojevich, and she got the bulk of the black vote, finishing third with 179,682 votes (19.8 percent). Bringing up the rear were Bob Marshall, a radiologist and a former Republican, with 51,813 votes, and gay attorney Jacob Meister, who withdrew before the primary and endorsed Giannoulias, with 16,317 votes.

Giannoulias's margin of victory over Hoffman was 47,445 votes.

In Chicago, Giannoulias got 120,947 votes (35.7 percent of the total cast), topping Hoffman (29.3 percent) by 21,504 votes and Jackson (28.9 percent) by 23,128 votes. In the Cook County suburbs, Giannoulias got 85,999 votes (37.4 percent of the total), losing to Hoffman (40.1 percent) by 7,912 votes. Giannoulias won Cook County by 13,592 votes.

In the Collar Counties, Giannoulias got 53,670 votes (41.5 percent), beating Hoffman (40.7 percent) by a meager 1,012 votes. In the 96 Downstate counties, Giannoulias beat Hoffman by 91,586-58,745 (44.3 percent), a margin of 32,841 votes. Jackson had 28,795 votes, and Marshall had 20,899 votes. The Downstate Democratic county chairmen delivered, but not convincingly.

Giannoulias's baggage can be succinctly summarized: He's perceived as inept, inexperienced and utterly unqualified. If Kirk is a windsock, Giannoulias is an empty sock. In 2004, at a time when he was a 27-year-old chief loan officer at his family's Broadway Bank, Giannoulias latched onto the then-unknown Obama's U.S. Senate campaign, becoming a fund-raiser. After Obama won, he backed Giannoulias for state treasurer in 2006, a post he won easily despite allegations that he made loans to "questionable" borrowers, including Tony Rezko.

The treasurer's job is to wisely invest the state's money. He makes no policy decisions. But Giannoulias put "Bright Start" college savings money into a fund consisting of risky mortgage-backed securities, losing $150 million.

Now Broadway Bank has been declared to be "troubled" by the FDIC, and a consent order to monitor operations has been entered. The bank, which specialized in commercial loans backed by real estate collateral, could be declared insolvent before the election.

In every area, Giannoulias's numbers bordered on the embarrassing. In Chicago, where he lavished money on ward organizations, he got 120,947 votes (35.6 percent of the total cast) in a turnout of 339,195. Hoffman was second with 99,443 votes (29.3 percent), and Jackson was third with 97,819 votes (28.9 percent).

Giannoulias won the Daley-controlled predominantly white Southwest Side wards, but not convincingly. He got 48.1 percent of the vote in the 10th Ward, 59.6 percent in John Daley's 11th Ward, 44.8 percent in Mike Madigan's 13th Ward, 59.9 percent in Ed Burke's 14th Ward, 40.4 percent in Tom Hynes' 19th Ward and 45.8 percent in Bill Lipinski's 23rd Ward. Yet Hoffman got 29.4 percent, 34.2 percent, 39.4 percent and 36.6 percent of the vote in the 11th, 13th, 19th and 23rd wards, respectively. Was that an anti-Daley vote or an anti-Giannoulias vote?

Giannoulias lost the six Lakefront wards to Hoffman by 23,256-13,339, a clear indication of liberal voter resistance. He lost every North Shore township, getting just 23.0 percent of the vote in Evanston, 22.0 percent in New Trier, 26.0 percent in Northfield, 33.0 percent in Niles and 39.0 percent in Maine.

In the black wards, where the "Obama connection" was supposed to prove magical and where he generated the margin that enabled him to win the 2006 treasurer's primary, Giannoulias finished a distant second to Jackson, getting 42,486 votes to Jackson's 73,790.

Even Downstate, Giannoulias's numbers were shaky. Against Hoffman, the unknown Chicagoan, the treasurer won Saint Clair County by 7,879-4,236 and Sangamon County by 4,992-2,078, but in Champaign County, filled with students and liberals, Giannoulias won by just 2,764-2,746.

Statewide turnout in 2006 was 3,587,676. In the 2010 primary, it was 1,647,037 in the Senate races. That means another 1.9 million voters will participate in the November election.

The anti-Kirk Republicans will stick with Kirk, since a Kirk win is an Obama defeat, but not all anti-Giannoulias Democrats will stick with him. At least half of Hoffman's 304,757 voters will defect to Kirk. However, the black vote will be solid for Giannoulias, and the president will campaign for him.

Kirk cannot win simply by portraying himself as competent and credible. He must give voters a reason to vote against Giannoulias. Expect negative ads focusing on "Bright Start" and Broadway Bank to be all over television in October. Giannoulias cannot win by simply embracing Obama and making the race a referendum on the president. He must go negative on Kirk, blasting him as an insensitive Bush Republican and finding some scandal.

My prediction: In the "Battle of the Baggage," the windsock will defeat the soiled, empty sock by 250,000 votes.