March 3, 2010
"PAY-TO-PLAY" BERRIOS WINS "UGLY" IN ASSESSOR'S PRIMARY

ANALYSIS & OPINION BY RUSS STEWART

Money talks. Quality candidates walk. The news media squawk. And, lo and behold, Joe Berrios, Cook County's "Mr. Pay to Play," is nominated as the Democratic candidate for assessor.

It was, however, an "ugly" victory. Despite being the county Democratic chairman, Berrios managed only 39.2 percent of the vote, finishing with 203,397 votes, to 177,155 (34.0 percent) for Robert Shaw and 139,164 (26.8 percent) for Ray Figueroa, a former judge. Berrios won 22 of 50 Chicago wards and 17 of 30 suburban townships.

Renowned as a veritable money machine, Berrios raised more than $3.5 million a Board of Review commissioner from 2007 to 2009. He generates that kind of money because the three-member board has the power to adjust the assessed valuation on residential and commercial property, and the beneficiaries of decreases often show their appreciation through campaign contributions. Berrios also is a well paid Springfield lobbyist for the video poker industry.

When incumbent Assessor Jim Houlihan announced his retirement, Berrios used his clout as a prominent Hispanic politician, a prolific fund-raiser and the party chairman to elbow opposition aside. He ran bland and insipid saturation television ads promising to fight property tax hikes, and he relied on the Democratic organization to deliver. They did -- just barely.

In a year in which voters yearned for "ethically unchallenged" candidates, and in which precinct captains' productivity was spotty at best, Berrios almost got caught in the undertow. Instead of winning handily over desultory opposition, Berrios embarrassed himself by barely winning. In a contest that was off the public's radar screen, Berrios' triumph proved the following:

First, to about a quarter of the Democratic voters, issues, endorsements and perceptions did matter. The media repeatedly hammered Berrios as a "pay to play" insider who would use the powerful assessor's office to amass even more campaign cash and build an even more powerful personal political machine.

Figueroa, who once was the alderman of the 31st Ward, where Berrios is the Democratic committeeman, and who served as a judge for 12 years, ran a lackluster and grossly underfunded race, but he managed to win a plurality in nine wards and eight townships. Figueroa won five of six Lakefront wards and racked up near majorities in Evanston, Oak Park, New Trier, Northfield and Barrington.

Figueroa got 24.6 percent of the Chicago vote and 30.1 percent of the suburban vote. That was not a pro-Figueroa vote; instead, it was an anti-Berrios, anti-business-as-usual vote. Had a more electable candidate -- such as a white female "reformer" -- sought the post, the Figueroa vote would have shifted to her.

Second, Berrios' much trumpeted Hispanic base is an illusion. Both Berrios and Figueroa are of Puerto Rican ancestry, and both are North Siders. However, Figueroa won three of the seven wards represented by a Hispanic alderman. He carried the South Side 22nd Ward, with its Mexican-American majority, but lost the adjacent 25th and 12th wards. On the North Side, Figueroa won the 35th and 26th wards, both heavily Puerto Rican, barely lost the 1st Ward, and got trounced in the 30th and 31st wards.

In those eight wards, Berrios beat Figueroa by 12,725-10,409. Only 10.2 percent of Berrios' 120,179 Chicago votes came from Hispanic-majority wards, and even in his home 31st Ward, Berrios managed only a 2,093-772 win over Figueroa, getting 65.7 percent of the vote. Where is the so-called Hispanic "slumbering giant"? Even with "King Berrios" on the ticket, lavishly spreading around precinct money, his candidacy barely provoked a ripple.

As for any future mayoral bid, consider Berrios' to be dead on arrival. He hasn't even been elected assessor, and he already has too much baggage.

Third, black voters will not support a Hispanic candidate over a black candidate. Berrios tried to corral black committeemen, but Shaw, a former Board of Review of minimal credibility and nonexistent finances, still won 19 of 20 black-majority Chicago wards, getting 82,646 votes to 36,657 for Berrios.

Shaw got 117,057 votes in the city (37.2 percent of the total cast), of which 70.6 percent emanated from the predominantly black wards. He got 61,768 votes in the suburbs, carrying the five black-majority townships.

And fourth, it was the white Democratic committeemen who saved Berrios's butt.

Berrios got 63.5 percent of the vote in the Hispanic-majority 14th Ward, which is run by Alderman Ed Burke, and 49.3 percent of the vote to 33.6 percent for Figueroa in Alderman Dick Mell's 33rd Ward, also with a Hispanic majority. Berrios won majorities on the Southwest Side, where white bosses can still deliver: John Daley in the 11th Ward (66.8 percent), Mike Madigan in the 13th Ward (61.8 percent), Tom Hynes in the 19th Ward (50.7 percent) and Bill Lipinski in the 23rd Ward (54 percent).

Berrios won a majority in two of nine wards on the Northwest Side: Bill Banks' 36th Ward (57.4 percent of the vote) and Pat Levar's 45th Ward (53.4 percent). He won a plurality, but not a majority, in the 38th (49.5 percent), 39th (46.6 percent), 40th (43.7 percent), 41st (48.6 percent) and 50th (44.1 percent) wards, tied in the 47th Ward (42.0 percent), and lost the 32nd Ward (37.8 percent). In those wards, Berrios garnered 27,059 votes to 19,505 for Figueroa.

Berrios got 120,179 votes in the city, of which 70,797 originated from white-majority wards or wards controlled by white bosses.

The bottom line: Berrios is fortunate that he has no credible Republican foe. His November opponents are Sharon Strobeck-Eckersoll, a total unknown, and Green Party candidate Robert Grota. All Berrios needs to win is a pulse. He must adopt a "bunker mentality" -- just disappear, wait until after the election to raise money, and avoid any news media negativity.

But this much is clear: The Feb. 2 primary proved that Berrios, like Humpty Dumpty, is teetering precariously on the wall. He's not well liked. His Hispanic base is fractured. His "pay to play" propensities are better known than he suspects.

If Berrios devotes his energies to raising $4 million over the next 4 years but fails to cap property tax increases, all that money won't buy him love. My prediction: Berrios is a one-termer who will be out the door in 2014.

Metropolitan Water Reclamation District: As detailed in a late December column, contests for commissioner of this obscure government entity, which spends $1.6 billion annually, devolve upon inconsequentialities. Voters know next to nothing about any of the candidates, yet three commissioners are elected every 2 years, and they get paid $70,000 to attend 22 meetings per year. Issues and qualifications are largely irrelevant, so ballot position (first or last), party endorsements, media endorsements, race and ethnicity, gender, special interest group endorsements and in-precinct spending are determinative.

Unlike the past, the February Democratic primary "crapshoot" was won by the slated candidates: Incumbent Barbara McGowan finished first with 179,955 votes, followed by appointed incumbent Mariyana Spyropoulos (180,730) and businessman Mike Alvarez (155,172). Their ballot was 2-3-4 among the nine contenders, but the "slate" did not get a uniform vote.

McGowan, who is black, was part of an unofficial "black ticket" consisting of Kari Steele (146,649 votes) and Wallace Davis III (98,700), both children of former aldermen. The bulk of their vote came from predominantly black wards and townships. Alvarez ran exceedingly well in Hispanic wards, and he had the backing of key Southwest Side white committeemen.

Spyropoulos spent more than $1 million, much of it paid to ward committeemen who promised to put her on their election day "palm cards," which are lists of endorsed candidates that are handed out near polling places. She failed to get her money's worth in predominantly black areas, with barely half the vote won by McGowan, and finishing behind Alvarez. Spyropoulos ran first in every ward on the Northwest Side, leading the slate. She also placed heavy emphasis on billboards and signs.

The top ballot position went to Stella Black, a white woman who finished dead last with 98,594 votes. Todd Connor, who is openly gay, appealed to gays and Lakefront liberals and was backed by the political machine of U.S. Representative Jan Schakowsky (D-9), getting 130,383 votes. Of the three women on the ballot with Irish surnames, only McGowan, who is black, won, while Kathy O'Reilley (110,810 votes) and Maureen Kelly (123,590 votes) finished well back. Had there been only one Irish female name, she likely would have won.

The news media endorsements went to McGowan, Connor and Spyropoulos. As for qualifications, all a water district commissioner need do is show up and approve the president's consent agenda. There is no legislation to be created or enacted.

As a comfortable sinecure, with staff, a car and a 6-year term, it's also a steppingstone to higher office. Spyropoulos won on her second try at the office, and she surely will run for another county office such as treasurer or recorder of deeds in the near future. Alvarez, too, has ambitions. Connor will try again in 2012.