February 24, 2010
"EVERYBODY HATES TODD" TREND SPURS EASY PRECKWINKLE WIN
It's Cook County's equivalent of reality TV: "Everybody hates Todd." In the Democratic primary for Cook County Board president, appointed incumbent Todd Stroger was utterly, totally humiliated. Burdened with a tax-hiking, crony-hiring, competency-challenged 4-year record, Stroger was electorally disemboweled on 2/2, getting just 13.6% of the vote, finishing fourth and last. He won 17.1% of the Chicago vote, just 8.6% of the suburban vote, and 30.4% of the vote in Chicago's 20 black-majority wards. Winner Toni Preckwinkle ran a masterful, cliché-ridden campaign, positioning herself as the "reform"/"independent"/"competent" candidate, a feat reminiscent of Barack Obama in 2004 and 2008. Derided as the "white liberal" in the race, Preckwinkle, who is a black alderman with no discernable record of dissent from Mayor Daley, won 34 of 50 Chicago wards, 24 of 30 suburban townships, 14 of 20 blacks wards, 6 of 8 Hispanic wards, and all 6 Lakefront wards. Liberals loved her. Even in white ethnic areas like the Northwest Side, Preckwinkle got 35-60 percent in those wards. Terry O'Brien, the sole white contender, ran a desultory campaign, and finished with just 23%. The Daley Machine failed to deliver for O'Brien. Why the big Preckwinkle vote? Voters wanted Stroger out, and Preckwinkle was the most viable alternative, getting 50% of the vote. Preckwinkle will be impossible to beat in November. Full Article...
February 17, 2010
BRADY MUST MAKE 2010 A REFERENDUM ON GOV. QUINN
Every election for governor of Illinois is a referendum on the incumbent's performance. In the state's past 16 elections, the governor has been re-elected in 7 of 11 contests. In the 2/2/10 primary, Gov. Pat Quinn squeaked through with 50.4% -- hardly a mandate. Quinn's disapproval ratings are above 55%. Quinn's governing ability is somewhere between horrendous and odiferous. The likely Republican nominee, State Sen. Bill Brady, who leads by 406 votes in unofficial tallies, is an empty vessel. He won the primary with an anemic 20.2%. He is a social conservative, and has a lot of controversial votes over his 20-year career. But he is likeable, and electable. Brady must finesse the state's $12 billion deficit, while opposing any tax and spending hikes. Does he have a plan? Quinn must make Brady the issue, much as Rod Blagojevich did in 2006, when he spent $25 million to demonize Judy Baar Topinka. Incumbent IL governors lost in 1948, 1960, 1968, 1972. 2010 looks most like 1960. The election is Brady's to lose.Full Article...
February 10 2010
BLAME MADIGAN, HENDON, LINK FOR COHEN'S BRIEF FAME
Scott Lee Cohen is history. Pat Quinn soon will be. In the 2010 primary, Democratic politicians proved that they could be fools all of the time. State Sen. Rickey Hendon, who is black, ran for Lt. Gov. in order to insure the defeat of his rival, black State Rep. Art Turner. Hendon succeeded. The combined Hendon-Turner vote was 36%, or almost 50,000 more than Cohen's 25.9%. Blame Hendon. State Sen. Terry Link, the Lake Co. Democratic chairman, was supposed to have voluminous Downstate support and the backing of collar county Democratic leaders. He finished dead last, with 12.2%. Blame Link for not capitalizing on the split between 2 blacks. IL House Speaker Mike Madigan, also the IL Democratic chairman, backed Turner, but the party issued no endorsement. Turner won 11 Chicago wards, but Hendon won 19 of 20 black wards. Cohen carried 15 of 50 wards, and won a plurality in all the Northwest Side wards. Blame Madigan. And Mayor Daley's vaunted Machine was AWOL. Blame Daley. In the Democratic governor's race, Quinn was roundly embarrassed. Quinn won 43 of 50 city wards, and all of the black wards. He won statewide by just 8,090 votes. Quinn looks lile toast in NovemberFull Article...
February 3, 2010
"OBAMA NATION" HIBERNATION SPURS 2010 REPUBLICAN REBOUND
The Obama Nation has gone into hibernation, which is prompting a Republican rejuvenation. That's a lot of alliteration. The "change we need" folks were nowhere apparent in recent state elections in Massachusetts, Virginia and New Jersey. On Jan. 19, Scott Brown (R) beat Martha Coakley (D) for Ted Kennedy's senate seat by 1,168,107-1,058,682. But Barack Obama got 1,904,097 votes in Nov. 2008, endorsed Coakley, and campaigned for her. Coakley got 845,415 fewer votes than Obama. John McCain got 1,108,854 votes in 2008, and Brown upped that by 59,253. Brown's win was not a rejection of Obama or his healthcare. It was simply a return to politics-as-usual. Brown got the Republican base vote, and the Democratic vote was down by 44%. Similar situations arose in the governorship contests in VA and NJ. The Republican base voted, and the Democratic base didn't. 2010 looks like a "wave" election, with massive party turnover. Republicans could gain 6-8 US Senate seats and 30-40 US House seats. And that will mean congressional gridlock during the last two years of Obama's term. Clearly, Obama has not fulfilled the exuberant, exorbitant expectations of the Obama Nation.Full Article...
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