January 27, 2010
HYNES, HOFFMAN, PRECKWINKLE, SEAL SURGE IN DEMOCRATIC PRIMARIES

ANALYSIS & OPINION BY RUSS STEWART

My prediction: 20 percent, Hynes, Hoffman, Preckwinkle and Seals.

Say what?

My customary pre-election column consists of "analysis and predictions." However, a sprinkling of readers profess that they don't relish plowing through 1,500 words to discover the winners. Hence, a "prediction and analysis": Eight words of prediction, and 1,475 words of analysis. If you don't like the prediction, skip this analysis of the Democratic primary.

Democrats in Illinois comprehend the distinction between disaster and tragedy. The former occurred in Haiti. The latter will occur if the party nominates Pat Quinn, Alexi Giannoulias, Terry O'Brien or Julie Hamos.

A disaster is a sudden misfortune causing great harm or loss of life and property. A tragedy is a calamitous ending to an endeavor caused by a personal character flaw. If the Democrats expect to win the offices of governor, U.S. senator, Cook County Board president and 10th U.S. House District, they need to nominate Dan Hynes, David Hoffman, Toni Preckwinkle and Dan Seals. All are unflawed or semi-flawed outsiders who can plausibly beat a Republican in the fall election.

Turnout: Statewide, it was 32.8 percent in 2002 and 24.8 percent in 2006. In 2002 the Democratic primary turnout was 1,320,813 statewide and 791,605 in Cook County (59.9 percent). In 2006 the Democratic primary turnout was 997,720 statewide and 619,309 in Cook County (62.0 percent).

Turnout in the 2008 presidential primary was 40.9 percent; 2,059,702 voters took a Democratic primary ballot, with 1,091,008 of those (53.0 percent) in Cook County.

There are 7,789,500 registered voters in Illinois: 2,933,502 in Cook County (37.7 percent), 1,854,140 in the Collar Counties of DuPage, Lake, Will, McHenry, Kane and DeKalb (23.8 percent), and 3,001,858 Downstate (38.5 percent).

On Feb. 2 a 20 percent turnout would mean roughly 850,000 Democratic primary votes statewide and 450,000 in Cook County. The statewide arithmetic is simple: Whoever wins more than 65 percent of Chicago's black vote takes Cook County, and if they break even elsewhere, they're nominated. The Cook County arithmetic is simple: Whoever wins the majority of black voters is nominated. And the 10th District arithmetic is simple: Whoever carries Lake County with 60 percent of the vote is nominated.

Governor: To black voters, Pat Quinn and Dan Hynes are just two clueless white dudes. Neither has a "black agenda," although both back a state income tax hike. Black voters will comprise one-third of the Democratic turnout.

To white liberal voters, Quinn and Hynes are just two bland, mealy-mouthed opportunists who will spout whatever platitudes are convenient. Quinn is perceived as honest but incompetent. Hynes is viewed as stiff and suspiciously conservative. Liberals comprise one-fourth of the Democratic turnout.

To white ethnics and conservatives, the two Irish-surnamed contenders generate about as much enthusiasm as participating in a used car auction. You've got to buy a vehicle, and you just know you're going to get a lemon. Conservatives comprise one-fifth of the Democratic turnout.

To Downstaters, who resent the fact that every lever of power in state government is controlled by Chicagoans, the choice between Quinn and Hynes is like a choice between a poke in the eye and a kick in the groin, namely, painful. Downstaters comprise just over 20 percent of the Democratic turnout.

The outlook: Derided as "Governor Jello," Quinn's vacillation, flip-flopping and "Chicken Little" protestations that the fiscal sky is falling have become his governing style. Quinn is a moral improvement over Rod Blagojevich, but in a constructive sense, he's been a failure. He exerts no leadership, merely reacting to the crisis of the moment. If he is nominated on Feb. 2, Quinn will be enmeshed in 7 months of leadership squabbles, fiscal meltdowns, unpaid state vendors, 11 percent unemployment levels, stupid decisions -- like the release of 1,700 state prisoners -- and a $12 billion fiscal year 2010 deficit. Solomon's wisdom Quinn does not have. If he is nominated, Quinn will lose in the fall.

Recent polls show Quinn's support eroding. The most recent Chicago Tribune poll put him ahead of Hynes by 44(percent(to(40 percent, with 15 percent undecided. A recent Giannoulias poll had Quinn leading by 49(percent(to(43 percent. A Hynes poll has Quinn up by 44-37. Any incumbent under 50 percent is in jeopardy, and undecideds usually break 2-1 for the challenger. That's happening.

Hynes needs a silver bullet -- an anti-Quinn attack that will sway voters so the governor will not win by default. At present, Quinn is getting a solid majority of blacks and liberals and is running even elsewhere. The prison releases aid Hynes among white women and conservatives.

The key is the black vote. Hynes needs to get half of it. The Hynes campaign dropped a bombshell concerning Quinn's tenure as revenue director under Mayor Harold Washington, a job from which he was ousted after 6 months. A television ad quoted the late mayor as stating that Quinn was "undisciplined" and that the appointment was his "greatest mistake." Quinn's black support is hemorrhaging.

My prediction: In a turnout of 850,000, Hynes will pull a monumental upset, winning by 430,000-420,000.

U.S. Senator: If the Democratic contest between Giannoulias, David Hoffman, Cheryle Jackson, Jacob Meister and Bob Marshall were a prize fight, the combatants would all be lightweights. There are few substantive differences: All support Obama's health care package and economic program. Jackson, Hoffman and Marshall support an immediate Afghanistan troop pullout. Giannoulias is traipsing around the black community proclaiming the fact that he is the president's basketball-playing buddy.

All candidates have flaws: Meister is boisterously gay. Marshall is a former Republican. Jackson was a top aide to Blagojevich for 4 years, during his first term, when the "pay to play" system was reaping millions in contributions. She, of course, says that she knows nothing.

Hoffman, as Chicago's inspector general from 2003 to 2008, was a glorified gadfly, fighting city corruption by issuing press releases and holding press conferences. He issued his "report" on the parking meter lease 2 months after the City Council approved it. Hoffman's impact on Chicago's "culture of corruption" ranks between minimal and negligible.

Giannoulias, as state treasurer, presided over Illinois' failed "Bright Start" college loan program, which lost $85 million due to investments in bundled subprime mortgages. "He's failed in both of his jobs," said Hoffman of Giannoulias. The first job was as vice president of family-owned Broadway Bank, which now is deemed a "troubled" institution.

The outlook: Hoffman has emerged as the liberals' flavor of the month, getting strong support along the Lakefront and the North Shore, from Jewish voters, and from Chicago police and firefighters. Meister thinks that 120,000 gay voters will back him. Jackson is stressing her gender and race, not her qualifications. She will get 60 to 70 percent of the black vote, but she has no appeal to white women. Giannoulias is backed by Democratic committeemen in Cook County, most Downstate county chairmen, and organized labor.

My prediction: The flawed Giannoulias makes Massachusetts' defeated Martha Coakley look like an Einstein. Republicans pray for his nomination. But it will be Hoffman with 298,000 votes (35 percent of the total), to 272,000 (32 percent) for Giannoulias, 227,000 (26 percent) for Jackson, 42,500 (9 percent) for Meister and 25,500 (3 percent) for Marshall.

Cook County Board President: At the risk of waxing romantic, Alderman Toni Preckwinkle is emerging as this election's Barack Obama, cobbling together an unlikely coalition of blacks, white liberals, Hispanics and allies of Mayor Rich Daley. Preckwinkle exudes a key characteristic: competence. After 4 years of Todd Stroger's follies, white voters want a change, liberals want a reformer, Daley wants a black board president, and black voters, realizing that Stroger is toast, are gravitating to Preckwinkle to keep an African American in the job.

My prediction: Preckwinkle will get 180,000 votes (40 percent of the total), to 131,000 (29 percent) for Terry O'Brien, 86,000 (19 percent) for Dorothy Brown and 59,000 (12 percent) for Stroger.

10th U.S. House District (North Shore): There's little ideological difference between Julie Hamos and Dan Seals, but there's a huge geographical and sentimental difference. Both are seeking the Democratic nomination. Seals lost to Mark Kirk in 2006 and 2008. With Kirk running for senator, the seat is open.

Hamos is out of Evanston's "Jan/Bob Machine," run by U.S. Representative Jan Schakowsky (D-9). Seals' base is in Lake County. Area activists believe Seals deserves another shot, and they resent Schakowsky's meddling. Hamos is targeting women and Jewish voters and supporting Obama's health care plan. Seals, ever the pacifist, is still demanding withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq and Afghanistan.

My prediction: Seals, the likable loser, will win by 13,000-12,000.

Obama won the district in 2008 by 181,071-114,035, (with 61 percent of the vote), but the political environment is much different in 2010. Running as an "Obama Democrat" may be the kiss of death. Seals is the strongest Democrat, but the Republican candidate will be favored.