January 27, 2010
HYNES, HOFFMAN, PRECKWINKLE, SEAL SURGE IN DEMOCRATIC PRIMARIES
My predictions: 20%, Hynes, Hoffman, Preckwinkle and Seals. If they're nominated on Feb. 2, Illinois won't be a Republican blow-out in November. Statewide turnout will be just 20%, or about 850,000. In the governor's race, Dan Hynes' TV ad featuring Harold Washington has been devastating. If the black vote breaks evenly for Gov. Quinn and Hynes, then Hynes wins. Governor Jello's support is now hemorrhaging. Hynes will win 430,000-420,000. In the US Senate race, Alexi Giannoulias is dropping like a rock. All the contenders are liberals. And all have flaws. But David Hoffman, Chicago's former IG, has the momentum, while Cheryle Jackson has not locked up black support. Hoffman wins 298,000 to 272,000 to 227,000. Toni Preckwinkle is the most competent and most electable Democrat. She's winning a piece of every Democratic constituency. Against incumbent Todd Stroger, Dorothy Brown and Terry O'Brien, her 40% (180,000 votes) is enough to triumph. In the North Shore 10th Dist., likeable loser Dan Seals is utilizing turf resentment in his race against Evanston-backed Julie Hamos. The credibility of the Jan/Bob Machine is on the line. Dem voters think Seals deserves a third shot, and many view Hamos as an interloper. Seals will win by 13,000-12,000.Full Article...
January 20, 2010
REBUBLICANS' 'STUPIDITY' MAY BE OVERCOME IN 2010
Contrary to creationists' insistence that there is "intelligent design" in the origin of the human species, there is no evidence of that phenomenon among Illinois' Republicans. Because of stupid decisions in the 1996 and 1998 US senatorial primaries, Republicans involuntarily foisted Dick Durbin and Barack Obama on America. Had Al Salvi not won the '96 primary, Durbin would not have been elected; had Peter Fitzgerald not won the '98 primary, loser Loleta Didrickson would have won the seat, and run for re-election in 2004; Fitzgerald retired, and opened the seat for Obama. In 2010, there is Republican evolution: they want a winner. In the GOP US Senate race, moderate Mark Kirk will win -- but only because no big-spending conservative is running. For governor, Andy McKenna's no-tax/no-spending hike theme is resonating. He will get 26%, with Jim Ryan second and Kirk Dillard third. For congressman in the North Shore 10th CD, liberal Beth Coulson's only hope was for a split in the conservative vote; but Bob Dold is surging, and he will beat Coulson 45-40%. For county board president, Roger Keats will win.Full Article...
January 13 2010
A FEB. 2 PRIMARY PRIMER: HELP FOR FINDING THE LIBERAL
Unlike the Marine's recruiting slogan, a "good" liberal is not hard to find. In the Feb. 2 Democratic primary, a plethora of liberals predominate. Liberals can be categorized as follows: Pure, true, demonstrable and practical. A pure liberal thinks Karl Marx is Santa Claus; a true liberal is obsessed about being politically correct; a demonstrable liberal seeks to prove a cause; and a practical liberal wants to enact the prevailing liberal agenda. In various contests, here's the real liberal : 7th Dist.: Jim Madigan over Heather Steans. 11th Dist.:Ed Mullen over Ann Williams and Dan Farley. 18th Dist.: Robyn Gabel over Jeff Smith, Eamon Kelly, Eb Moran and Pat Keenan-Devlin. County Bd 12th Dist.: John Fritchey over Ted Matlak. 10th Cong. Dist.: Julie Hamos over Dan Seals. But the non-liberal or least-liberal could win some of those races.Full Article...
January 6, 2010
DEMOCRATS' "B-TEAM" CONFRONTS FUBAR IN 10TH DISTRICT
It's FUBAR time in Chicago's NW Side 10th state senate district. For those familiar with military colloquialisms and acronyms, FUBAR means F---- Up Beyond All Repair. St. Sen. Jim DeLeo (D) has held the seat since 2002, and has had no opposition. But a B-Team of Democrats is running for the spot, now that DeLeo is retiring. The favorite to win is Republican 41st Ward Alderman Brian Doherty. Every Democratic heavyweight opted out of the race. The contenders (D) are John Mulroe, Tom Ryan, Mary Anselmo and Wanda Majcher. None are well-known, well-funded or formidable. All except Anselmo oppose any state income tax hike. Both parties will pour $500,000 into the contest, which is for a 2-year term. Mulroe is favored to win the primary, but Doherty will win the election. Full Article...
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