November 18, 2009
"DUMB DEB" MELL'S BLUNDER PUTS CAREER AT RISK
ANALYSIS & OPINION BY RUSS STEWART
Chicago is renowned as a city where dead people and fictitious people often vote. Their cosmic, insatiable impulse to perform their civic duty overcomes the temporary impediment of burial or nonexistence.
State Representative Deb Mell (D-40) is neither dead nor fictitious, but she cannot vote -- an unfortunate happenstance which threatens to put her fledgling political career in the proverbial dumpster.
A candidate for public or party office need only fulfill three requirements: Have a pulse, have a residence and be a "qualified" -- meaning registered -- voter. The latter two must be in the district where the candidate is running for office. Those running for legal office must be licensed attorneys.
Mell, who is the daughter of influential Alderman Dick Mell (33rd), is seeking reelection to her second term in 2010, and she fulfills two of the three criteria: She has a pulse and she resides in her Northwest Side district; however, she is not a registered voter. That's because she moved in 2009 and forgot to re-register at her new address.
Here's a multiple-choice question: Dick Mell has been an alderman since 1975. His daughter Patti married Rod Blagojevich, and Daddy-in-law facilitated Rod's ascent from state representative to congressman to governor to national laughingstock and likely convict. Dick Mell also ejected state Representative Rich Bradley from his seat in 2008 to make way for his daughter, a gay rights activist who decided that she wanted to go Springfield. Deb Mell was raised in a political family. Her failure to register after moving was: (a) Inadvertent. (b) Incomprehensible. (c) Idiotic. (d) Inexplicable. (e) Daddy's fault.
Answer: All of the above.
Perhaps the Democratic General Assembly could retroactively modify the statute. Candidates would only have to fulfill only two of four requirements: have a pulse, have a brain, be a resident and be a voter. In that case, Deb Mell would zoom onto the ballot, with two of four.
Joe Laiacona, a Columbia College instructor and an Albany Park resident, is running for state representative in 2010 in the 40th District. The only way he can win is to oust Deb Mell from the ballot, leaving him unopposed.
According to Laiacona, Mell resided in an in-district condominium on Clybourn Avenue when she was elected in 2008. Under state law, a state legislator must reside in the district for 2 years prior to installation. In 2009 Mell moved to a condominium on Melrose Street, but she failed to re-register. Mell's nominating petitions and statement of candidacy, which she filed in October, list her Melrose address.
"She's surely a resident, but she's not a voter," Laiacona said. "She can't be on the ballot if she's not a registered voter."
"I'm quite happy," gushed Laiacona, who said that he and his election law attorney discovered Mell's oversight last summer. "We kept it a secret," he said.
The Chicago Board of Elections, in its annual purging process, mails no-forward letters to every city voter. Mell's registration was purged from Clybourn in 2009 when the letter was returned.
"We must follow the law," said Laiacona, with more than a tinge of sarcasm. The 40th District, which extends from Argyle Street to Belmont Avenue, in a crescent between Laramie Avenue and Damen Avenue, is overwhelmingly Democratic. If he is nominated, Laiacona will not necessarily be elected.
Mell is being defended by Illinois House Speaker Mike Madigan's election law attorneys. By listing Melrose on her petitions, she cannot claim Clybourn as her address. Mell allegedly has re-registered. Her lawyers undoubtedly will argue that she is now a resident/voter, that she didn't have proper notice of her removal from Clybourn, or that the state statute regarding residency trumps the "qualified voter" attestation on the petitions. The case may go all the way to the Illinois Supreme Court, of which the Democratic majority is beholden to Madigan, who helped elected them.
My prediction: Deb Mell will not be on the ballot.
However, the "Mell Machine" has options:
They can run her as a primary write-in candidate, filing as a write-in by Dec. 2. Democratic turnout in the 40th District was 9,956 in 2008 and 7,029 in 2006. It will be around 7,000 on Feb. 2. The district contains all or part of the 1st, 30th, 31st, 33rd, 35th, 38th and 39th wards, for a total of 63 precincts. In the 2008 primary the unopposed Deb Mell got 5,433 votes in the 33rd Ward, 1,417 in the 30th and 1,569 in the 39th. Dick Mell backed Bradley in his Illinois Senate bid, and Bradley got 3,318 votes in the 33rd Ward, 1,327 in the 30th, 2,570 in the 35th and 1,271 in the 39th. With an enormous expenditure of work and money, generating 4,000 write-in votes for Deb Mell is doable, but only in conjunction with a vicious assault on Laiacona.
Like Deb Mell, Laiacona acknowledges that he is gay, but he said that he has no "gay agenda."
"I'm running as a reform-minded, progressive independent," Laiacona said. He wrote for Gay Chicago magazine for 17 years, penning a "Leather Views" column under a pseudonym. Expect the content of those articles to be a huge campaign issue.
The question is: Does Mell have enough time to exploit it? The primary is only 75 days away. An anti-Laiacona campaign would be mean and nasty.
A second option is to divert Democrats into the Republican primary, where nobody filed. A write-in, to be nominated, needs 500 votes. The Republican turnout was under 1,000 in both 2006 and 2008. If Dick Mell engineered a crossover of 600-700 Democrats into the 2010 Republican primary to write-in Deb Mell, she would win.
The "Mell Machine" would then have 8 months to poison voters on Laiacona. Turnout in the 2008 election was 22,607, with the Republican candidate getting 15.1 percent of the vote, and turnout in the 2006 election was 13,193, with no Republican running. Turnout next year will be around 15,000. If Deb Mell were the Republican candidate, Daddy Mell would have to deliver about 8,000 controlled Democratic votes to her. That's doable. In a one-on-one contest against Laiacona, the issue would be Laiacona, not the fact that Mell would be running as a Republican.
And, thereafter, Deb Mell would caucus with the Democrats.
A third option would be to run as an independent. It takes 500 signatures to run for state representative as a major party candidate, and it takes 1,400 to 2,240 signatures to run as an independent. Anybody who signs nominating petitions or who votes in the primary is barred from signing an independent candidate's nominating petition, which must be filed in June.
The benefit: The "Mell Machine" would have plenty of time to personally discredit and politically disembowel Laiacona. Mell's legion of workers would have but one priority: Save Deb. Mell would flood the 40th District with 1,500 workers, who would promise everything to everybody, ignore every other Democrat on the ballot and brutalize Laiacona, while Mell would spend whatever it took to win.
As baseball legend Yogi Berra once said, it ain't over until it's over. "Dumb Deb" she may be, but Daddy Mell may yet concoct a strategy to save her. Count on this: Even if Mell manages to get back to Springfield for a second term, her credibility will be nonexistent. She will be an object of scorn and ridicule. For a politician, her "oversight" is inexcusable.
In other local races:
10th Illinois Senate District: Contrary to Yogi's prognostication, it's over. Republican Alderman Brian Doherty (41st) is the next state senator.
The Democratic field to succeed incumbent Jim DeLeo in the heavily Democratic district is desultory and obscure: Mary Anselmo, John Nocita, Wanda Majcher, Tom Ryan and John Mulroe. None has the stature of Doherty.
Electable Democrats, such as 38th Ward Committeeman Patti Jo Cullerton and Alderman Tom Allen (38th), declined to run, but Democratic Senate President John Cullerton wants to protect his 37-22 majority, and he reportedly will spend $500,000 to retain DeLeo's seat. Republicans will spend an equal sum on Doherty's behalf.
The Democratic frontrunner is Mulroe, an Edison Park attorney who lost the 10th Subcircuit Democratic primary for judge in 2008. Mulroe is backed by 41st Ward Democratic Committeeman Mary O'Connor and, according to sources, by Cullerton and Alderman Pat Levar (45th). Anselmo is supported by 36th Ward Democratic Committeeman Bill Banks, the ward's former alderman.
"They're trying to divide my base," Doherty said of Mulroe, who he said was a longtime family friend who "promised he would not run against me." Doherty's base is in the 41st Ward and among Irish-American voters.
The outlook: Turnout was 21,949 in 2006, when DeLeo ran unopposed in the primary. It will be closer to 25,000 in 2010. In a four-way race, 8,000 votes will clinch it. Banks can easily produce 5,000 votes for Anselmo in his ward, but Mulroe can counter with 8,000 votes in the 41st, 45th and 38th wards. Majcher will have appeal to Polish-American voters, and Nocita and Ryan have a base in the 41st Ward. Make Mulroe a slight favorite.