October 21, 2009
2010 CAMPAIGN PROMISES "TRICKS AND TREATS" FOR LT. GOV., COUNTY COMMISSIONER

ANALYSIS & OPINION BY RUSS STEWART

Trick or treat? This column is not about Halloween. It's about the 2010 political season, which commences on Oct. 26, the first day to file nominating petitions, and culminates on Feb. 2, 2010, the primary date.

Not surprisingly, voters can expect few treats and many tricks. Here's an analysis of developing 2010 and 2011 contests:

Lieutenant Governor: For Democrats, the candidacy of Chicago Alderman Sandi Jackson (7th) is no treat. Instead, it's an anchor that could drown the party's 2010 gubernatorial nominee. Candidates for governor and lieutenant governor run for election in tandem, with one vote for both, but they are nominated separately.

Jackson's husband is U.S. Representative Jesse Jackson Jr. (D-2), who is ensnarled in several federal investigations into his possible role in former governor Rod Blagojevich's "senator for sale" antics. Did Jackson try to buy the seat? Did he offer to raise up to $5 million for Blagojevich's 2010 reelection campaign if he was appointed? The local U.S. Attorney's Office is investigating, as is the Office of Congressional Ethics.

Sandi Jackson was elected alderman in 2007 with 57 percent of the vote, handily defeating the appointed incumbent, Darcel Beavers, the daughter of 23-year alderman Bill Beavers, who had been named to replace John Stroger on the Cook County Board. Sandi Jackson ousted Bill Beavers as the ward's Democratic committeeman in 2008.

It has since been revealed that Sandi Jackson was paid the sum of $247,500 as a salary since 2001 from her husband's federal campaign committee and that the congressman's committee also donated $298,927 to her 2007 aldermanic campaign committee. After being elected alderman, and earning $110,556 annually, she still got $95,000 in "consulting" fees from her husband's committee.

The top-tier Democratic primary field for lieutenant governor includes state Senator Terry Link (D-30) of Lake Bluff, who is the Lake County Democratic chairman, Jackson and state Representative Art Turner (D-9) of the West Side, who has served since 1981. Link is white, and Jackson and Turner are black.

The second tier includes union activist Tom Castillo and Scott Lee Cohen.

Possible candidates include state Representative Mike Boland (D-71) of Moline and state Senator Rickey Hendon (D-5) of the West Side, who also is circulating petitions for run for Congress if Danny Davis (D-7) files for Cook County Board president. Boland is white, and Hendon is black. Boland would shave votes from Link, while Hendon would fractionalize the black vote.

The outlook: In the past, candidates for lieutenant governor have been inoffensive, inconsequential and generally invisible. They add nothing to the gubernatorial candidate's appeal, and they are only along for the ride.

Pat Quinn is governor today because Blagojevich was elected in 2002 and 2006. George Ryan was Jim Thompson's number two from 1983 to 1990, but he had the credibility to run for governor in 1998 only because he had been secretary of state for 8 years.

Sandi Jackson, if nominated to run with either Quinn or Dan Hynes, will not be just baggage. She will be ballast. She will sink the boat. Blagojevich's trial is scheduled for the summer of 2010. The Jackson-Blagojevich connection will be pervasive, and toxic.

My prediction: Turnout in the 2010 statewide Democratic primary will be around one million, with 625,000 from Cook County and about 375,000 from Chicago. Lake County casts about 30,000 votes. Democratic insiders prefer Turner, as his candidacy would energize black voters while not alienating white voters. Jackson would do neither. Everybody who doesn't want Jesse Jackson to be Chicago's mayor would vote against her, including every potential black contender. Turner and Jackson (and Hendon, if he runs) would divide the Chicago black vote.

For Democrats, Link's nomination would be a real treat. Jackson's would be a catastrophe. She would guarantee a Republican victory.

9th Cook County Board District: Like an apparition risen from the grave, the ghost of Ralph Capparelli has suddenly materialized. Capparelli, a 34-year state representative who lost his seat in 2004, is masterminding the campaign of his son, Cary Capparelli, for county commissioner in 2010. The younger Capparelli is running as a term-limiting, non-double-dipping, no-tax-hiking, anti-Todd Stroger conservative Democrat.

That's definitely not a treat for incumbent Republican Pete Silvestri, who is a member in good standing of the unofficial "Northwest Side Nonaggression Pact," a powerful, bipartisan combine of area elected officials who have one non-sinister, self-serving goal: Stay in office. Their motto is succinct: You don't oppose me, I don't oppose you.

The pact's participants include a gaggle of Republicans, Alderman Brian Doherty (41st), state Representatives Mike McAuliffe (R-20) and Skip Saviano (R-77), Rosemont Mayor Bradley Stephens and Silvestri, who also is Elmwood Park's village president, and two very powerful Democrats, state Senator Jim DeLeo (D-10) and 36th Ward Democratic Committeeman Bill Banks, who resigned as ward alderman in August.

Saviano once was an aide to DeLeo. He and Silvestri control Elmwood Park, which is adjacent to Banks' 36th Ward (Montclare, Galewood, the Cumberland corridor). Doherty and McAuliffe dominate the Far Northwest Side 41st Ward, where Capparelli was the Democratic committeeman from 1992 to 2008. The "deal" is simple: Banks doesn't send his workers into the 41st Ward or Elmwood Park or try to cause problems for Saviano, McAuliffe or Silvestri, and the Republicans don't field any opposition to DeLeo, who has been a state senator since 1992, or invade the 36th Ward.

But all that's unraveling. Banks is disengaging, ready to make mega-bucks as a zoning lawyer. DeLeo is retiring. Doherty is running for DeLeo's Senate seat, and the 36th Ward likely will swing behind him. John Rice, Banks' administrative assistant, who really was his driver, is the new alderman. If Doherty goes to Springfield, his 41st Ward aldermanic post will be open in 2011, with no obvious successor.

Silvestri, who was first elected in 1994, defeated incumbent Democrat Marco Domico, the 36th Ward's candidate, with 54 percent of the vote; he was reelected with the same share in 1998 and 2002, and he upped that to 57.1 percent in 2006 against Jodi Biancalana, an obscure, underfunded Democrat. To be sure, 2002 and 2006 were strong Democratic years, in which Silvestri prevailed. As a commissioner, he was been adamantly and visibly opposed to Stroger's sales tax hike, supported its repeal, and voted to override Stroger's veto.

But Silvestri is not an icon. He is likable but not undefeatable. In 2006 Silvestri won his suburban Leyden Township base with 71.4 percent of the vote, carried the suburbs with 60.4 percent, won the 41st Ward with 59.8 percent and lost Banks' 36th Ward by 6,336-6,112, getting 49.1 percent of the vote; he got 52.2 percent of the Chicago vote.

Cary Capparelli, an international business consultant, expects to wage a vigorous, if not vituperative, campaign. "(Silvestri) is part of the old, failed administration," Capparelli said. "We need change."

"My opponent is a triple-dipper," Capparelli added, noting that Silvestri, in addition to his county board salary of $85,000, also earns income as Elmwood Park's president and liquor commissioner.

Capparelli said that he favors term limits, and he pledged to serve "not more than 8 years."

"If re-elected, (Silvestri) would be in office for 20 years," Capparelli said. "That's not acceptable." Capparelli is backing Terry O'Brien in the 2010 primary for board president.

The early outlook: With Banks and DeLeo taking a hike, the nonaggression pact is imploding. For Doherty, Silvestri and McAuliffe to win in 2010, they need to break even in the 36th Ward and get at least 60 percent of the vote in the 41st Ward.

While he was a legislator, the elder Capparelli was tight with Don Stephens, the late Rosemont mayor, and a staunch supporter of a Rosemont casino, as were DeLeo and McAuliffe. The Democratic-controlled 2001 remap created a Northwest Side district for Capparelli, which he relinquished to incumbent Bob Bugielski of the 36th Ward, running instead in an eastern district centered on the 39th Ward. The deal was that Capparelli was supposed to retire in 2004 and give his 15th District seat to John D'Amico.

But McAuliffe beat Bugielski with 53.7 percent of the vote in 2002, and after Capparelli decided to challenge McAuliffe in the 20th District, he got clobbered, losing with just 40.8 percent of the vote. In 2008 Mary O'Connor ousted Capparelli as the 41st Ward Democratic committeeman.

Can Cary Capparelli win? Silvestri's base is now shaky in the 36th Ward, and the base Democratic vote in the district is 45 percent. If Capparelli gets 45 percent of the vote in the 41st Ward and 55 percent in the 36th Ward, he's the new commissioner.

36th Ward: The good news for Rice is that he has 17 months to entrench himself. The bad news is that the election is in February of 2011. The "Banks-DeLeo Machine" produced for Banks and DeLeo. Will it produce for Rice?

The 2011 aldermanic field includes Chicago firefighter Nick Sposato, who got 24 percent of the vote in a 2007 race against Banks, Bruce Randazzo, a city water department driver who filed a federal lawsuit on the Hired Truck Program scandal, and attorney Larry Andolino. Many others will file.

The outlook: With Banks gone, it's open season. Rice's days are numbered.