February 4, 2009
"CHANGE WE NEED" NOT APPARENT IN SUBURB RACES

ANALYSIS & OPINION BY RUSS STEWART

Barack Obama's 2008 campaign slogan - "Change We Need" - largely explains why he won the presidency.

In the April 7 municipal and township elections in the northwest suburbs, the operative words are: "Change? What change? We don't need no damn change."

Four years ago new mayors were elected in Park Ridge, Morton Grove, Lincolnwood and Harwood Heights. Three of those mayors are seeking a second term. Longtime mayors in Norridge, Skokie, Elmwood Park, Schiller Park, Mount Prospect and Arlington Heights are favored to win again. Incumbents have died, retired or resigned or are term-limited in Evanston, Des Plaines, Rosemont, Harwood Heights and Niles, and incumbents face tough challenges in Franklin Park, Morton Grove and Lincolnwood.

A few caveats apply to these battles:

First, a new mayor's first re-election bid is critical. If the mayor quits after 4 years, it's because he or she is a flop and a failure and cannot win. If a mayor faces a large field of challengers, it's because there is a perception that the incumbent is weak and inept and can be defeated. If a mayor is unopposed, it's because he is perceived as competent, popular and unbeatable.

Second, if a longtime mayor faces tough opposition, it's because he has become lax, lazy, corrupt or arrogant and is perceived as beatable.

Third, turnout in these off-year elections is anemic, usually under 25 percent in most municipalities and townships. That cuts both ways. A challenger possessed of smarts, money, workers and salient issues to use against the existing regime can win. Any sitting mayor whose record and contacts can't engender support from more than 15 percent of the voters deserves to lose.

Municipal elections are nonpartisan, while township candidates run as Democrats and Republicans. Local party organizations play a significant role in the races. The mayors of Park Ridge, Rosemont, Mount Prospect, Arlington Heights, Elmwood Park and Schiller Park are either professed Republicans or have ties to local Republican organizations; mayors in Morton Grove, Niles, Harwood Heights and Skokie are active Democrats. Democrats have takeover opportunities in Franklin Park and Des Plaines, and Republicans have them in Morton Grove and Harwood Heights.

Both parties seek to build a "farm team," a stable of local officials who can later run for legislative, county or congressional office. Wins by Democrat Barrett Pedersen in Franklin Park, Republican Mark Thompson in Des Plaines, Democrat Kim Sychowski Biederman in Niles or Democrat Liz Tisdahl in Evanston will set them up to run for higher office.

Control of a city or township enables the incumbent to generate campaign contributions from contractors and to encourage precinct work by employees. It helps build the party. Here's an early analysis of area contests:

Harwood Heights: Incumbent Peggy Fuller won by just 28 votes in 2005. Pompous, abrasive, authoritarian and unpopular, she wisely chose to retire, as her defeat in 2009 was a foregone conclusion. In 2010 Fuller wants to run for either state senator in the Democratic primary against Jim DeLeo (D-10) or take on state Representative Mike McAuliffe (R-20). A mayoral defeat would doom those aspirations.

Trustee Arlene Jezierny, a longtime Republican, is running for mayor with the overt backing of the area's McAuliffe forces and with the covert backing of DeLeo and 36th Ward Alderman Bill Banks' organization. Trustee Mark Dobrzycki, a Fuller ally who lost to McAuliffe in 2006, also is in the race. Dobrzycki has appeal to the village's booming Polish-American population, but Jezierny will have lots of workers. Pro-Fuller Trustee Les Szlendak has defected to Jezierny. Turnout in 2005 was just 1,969. Jezierny is the early favorite.

Lincolnwood: Jerry Turry won his first term in 2005 with 67 percent of the vote. Elections in this upscale village are nonpartisan. Mayoral candidates rise and fall on their own credentials and build their own organizations. Niles Township Democrats, whose local Caucus Party dominates Skokie and Morton Grove, never meddle in Lincolnwood.

Historically, if voters bond with their mayor, the mayor can serve until he or she retires or dies. They may have bonded with Turry. His sole opponent is attorney Ronald Cope.

There is no runoff, and highest vote getter wins. Turnout in 2005 was 1,779, and Turry won 1,203-576. The mayor is favored.

Morton Grove: Democrat Rick Krier won his first term in 2005 with 55 percent of the vote, defeating Republican-backed Dan Staackmann by 440 votes. Krier is again the Caucus Party nominee, and Staackmann is back as the Action Party candidate.  Staackmann also lost in 2001.

Morton Grove has fiscal pressures, and the loss of the Abt appliance super store cost the village substantial tax revenues. Krier is not a complacent mayor, and Staackmann may just not be electable. The Reform Party, which ran a slate in 2005, has disappeared. Krier is favored.

Des Plaines: Mayor Tony Arredia is barred from running by a term limit. Maine Township Republican Committeeman Mark Thompson, a former township supervisor, is the frontrunner. After years of crippling ideological warfare, Thompson recently tried to make party peace. He is backing Republican Carol Teschky for supervisor, but her ally, township highway commissioner Bob Provenzano, is not back in the fold.

Opposing Thompson are 2nd Ward Alderman Marty Moylan, a Democrat and an electrical union business agent, Michael Lake, a retired tool-and-die maker who lost to Moylan in 200 and also for alderman in 2003, and Dick Sayad, the 4th Ward alderman from 1999 to 2007 and a onetime ally of the mayor who has promised to spend what it takes to win. Arredia and Sayad are now estranged. Provenzano has past ties to Moylan and Sayad. Township Democrats won't make an endorsement.

Turnout in 2005 was 6,500; in April it will be about 8,000. In a four-man field, 40 percent of the votes cast -- 3,200 votes -- is enough to win. If Thompson triumphs, he'll be positioned to succeed to Rosemary Mulligan's (R-55) Illinois House seat in 2010 or 2012.

Niles: After 47 years in office, Mayor Nick Blase ignominiously pleaded guilty to federal charges of mail fraud and income tax evasion in a bribery kickback scheme and resigned on Aug. 25; he has yet to be sentenced. Trustee Bob Callero became acting mayor. Elected in 1961, Blase was re-elected 11 times, usually unopposed. This election will be the first truly contested mayoral race in 48 years.

The nonpartisan field includes Callero, who is backed by the remnants of Blase's political organization, Trustee Kim Sychowski Biederman, whose husband has close ties to Illinois House Speaker Mike Madigan, real estate agent Carol Harczak, concrete construction company owner Luigi Nitti, whose family owns a popular area restaurant, and Chris Hanusiak, the owner of a kitchen supply firm.

The outlook: Blase is the "Invisible Man." Nobody mentions him; nobody criticizes him; but everybody, especially residents, wants a mayor who will be as competent as he was in delivering city services and keeping taxes down. Callero postures as "Blase, Part II," but if Biederman brings in a horde of outside workers and voices an efficient-but-not-corrupt theme, she could pull an upset.

Franklin Park: Incumbent Dan Pritchett won mayoral elections in 1997, 2001 and 2005. This year Leyden Township Democratic Committeeman Barrett Pedersen will push Pritchett to the wall. "There's been an abuse of power" in the city, said Pedersen, an attorney who works precincts daily. There is definite fatigue with Pritchett. Also running is Bill Ruhl. Expect 3,500 votes to be cast. Pedersen is the favorite. If he wins, he will be a contender for area legislative or countywide office.

Evanston: Incumbent Lorraine Morton, who was elected in 1993, is retiring. The candidates are Alderman Liz Tisdahl, an ally of U.S. Representative Jan Schakowsky (D-9) of Evanston, Jeanne Kamps Lindwall, who is aligned with the city's anti-development faction, Barnaby Dinges, a public relations consultant who is the "green" candidate, and attorney Stuart Opdycke, who is pro-development. Morton is black, and all the candidates are white, even though Evanston is 40 percent minority. Tisdahl is the early favorite, but there will be a runoff if nobody gets a majority on April 7.

Park Ridge: Incumbent Howard Frimark, a Republican, won with 60.2 percent of the vote in 2005. Disgruntled Alderman Dave Schmidt, who supported Frimark in 2005, is running for mayor. Frimark is a solid favorite.

In other races: In Schiller Park, Republican Anna Montana will beat Barb Piltaber, an aide to the fire chief. Mayors Earl Field, George Van Dusen and Peter Silvestri are unopposed in Norridge, Skokie and Elmwood Park, respectively. Silvestri also is a Republican county commissioner. Arlene Mulder of Arlington Height and Irvana Wilks of Mount Prospect, both nominal Republicans, should win again. Stephen Bradley of Rosemont, the son of the late mayor and the Leyden Township Republican committeeman, will defeat Joe Watrach.