January 7, 2009
RACE IS HUGE FACTOR IN SENATE SUCCESSION

ANALYSIS & OPINION BY RUSS STEWART

Make no mistake about it: If Blagojevich-tainted U.S. Senate appointee Roland Burris is seated in Washington or if he twists in the wind for months before being rejected, he will be well positioned to win the 2010 Democratic primary for the Senate seat. Then he will lose to a Republican.

The reason is racial: Burris is black, at least a third of statewide Democratic primary voters are black, and the seat to which he was appointed was held by an African American. In a primary against several white candidates, Burris would win.

In the immediate future, the 71-year-old Burris will become the nation's best known non-senator. His media visibility will rival that of Brittany Spears and Paris Hilton. He is the appointee from the "Land of Corruption" (formerly the "Land of Lincoln"). Burris will claim that his appointment is legal and that the sins of the appointer, Governor Rod Blagojevich, should not attach to the appointee. Black luminaries, and the black media, will rally to his defense.

According to the 2000 census, Illinois' black population is 14.9 percent. To win statewide, a black candidate needs 40 percent of the white vote and half the Hispanic vote. But in a Democratic primary, blacks provide a third of the vote. Black aspirants won the 1992 and 2004 primaries for U.S. senator and were elected. Both victors -- Carol Moseley Braun in the 1992 "Year of the Woman" and Barack Obama in 2004 against an imported black Republican candidate -- had widespread support from white liberal and suburban moderate voters.

The bland Burris is no Obama. He has no reservoir of support among white liberals. Even if he becomes a martyr and engenders enthusiasm, if not outrage, among minorities, he is simply not electable. But he can be nominated.

Burris' appointment changes the political environment:

First, there will be no special election in 2009. The Democratic-controlled Illinois General Assembly could have passed a law mandating an election for U.S. Senate vacancies and stripping the governor of appointment authority. The legislators had a window between Blagojevich's Dec. 9 arrest and Burris' Dec. 30 appointment, but they failed to act. A new law would be ex post facto and would not apply to the Obama vacancy.

Second, Burris' declaration that he will run in 2010 clears other black Democrats out of the field. U.S. Representatives Jesse Jackson Jr. (D-2) and Danny Davis (D-7) covet the seat. Two or more black candidates in the Democratic primary would guarantee a victory by a white candidate. Jackson and Davis would have to relinquish their congressional seats to run in 2010. They won't run.

Third, Burris will be politically rehabilitated, particularly in the black community. Although he is not a politician in the Al Sharpton/Jesse Jackson/Bobby Rush mold, who claim that blacks are systematically victimized by racist whites, blacks will surely perceive his possible non-seating as a racial slight.

Burris has not won a statewide election since 1990. He lost Democratic primaries for governor in 1994, 1998 and 2002 and the Chicago mayoral election in 1995 when he ran an independent; he also lost a 1984 Democratic primary for U.S. senator. But the reality of his mediocre accomplishments, egocentric personality and negligible past appeal will be eclipsed by his newfound celebrity. He will be the "Man Who Could Not Be Senator," and a racial hero.

Fourth, Burris has no ethical baggage. He may have exercised poor judgment in his career choices, especially giving up the attorney general's post in 1994 and running against Rich Daley in 1995, but there is not a wisp of scandal attaching to him. He may epitomize mediocrity, but he is not mendacious.

Fifth, Lieutenant Governor Pat Quinn will take office when Blagojevich is impeached by the Illinois House and convicted by the Illinois Senate, which will occur by April at the latest. Quinn will be under enormous pressure not only to quickly appoint another senator, whom Washington Democrats can seat in lieu of Burris, but also to name somebody who can retain the seat in 2010.

Does he appoint a caretaker, like Abner Mikva? Or a winner, like Illinois Attorney General Lisa Madigan or defeated 2006 congressional candidate Tammy Duckworth?

If it's Mikva, then a brutal 2010 Democratic primary for the open seat ensues, with Burris having the edge. If it's Madigan or Duckworth, then there would be a one-on-one contest against Burris, with the appointee favored.

And fifth, this whole sordid situation gives the Republicans an extraordinary opportunity to win the Senate seat, especially against Burris. Blagojevich may soon be ousted, but his federal trial will be pending, which means more lurid headlines.

A Democrat has won 11 of the 14 Illinois elections for U.S. Senate since 1970.

The most recent Republican victor was Peter Fitzgerald, who defeated Braun in 1998. His strategy was simple: Keep the Democrat's vote margin in Cook County under 400,000, win the Collar Counties by more than 100,000 votes, and win Downstate by more than 300,000 votes. Fitzgerald beat Braun by 89,545 votes and carried 97 of 102 counties. Braun won Cook County by 394,161 votes, but Fitzgerald won the six Collar Counties by 149,538 votes and Downstate by 334,168 votes.

The last Republican victor before that was Chuck Percy in 1978, winning a third term. He was re-elected by a margin of 250,524 votes over Democrat Alex Seith. In that race, the liberal Percy won Cook County by 71,515 votes and took almost a third of the black vote. Percy won by 179,009 votes Downstate and in the Collar Counties, as many anti-Percy conservatives and Republicans opted for Seith.

Percy lost to Democrat Paul Simon by 89,264 votes in 1984. Simon won Chicago by 456,079 votes, lost the Cook County suburbs by 138,169 votes (winning Cook overall by 317,910 votes), and lost Downstate and the Collar Counties by 228,646 votes.

Can Burris win a primary election? The 1984, 1992 and 2004 Senate outcomes are illustrative:

1984: The increasingly unpopular Percy was up for re-election, and the Democratic nomination was a worthy prize. The field included Burris, who had been elected state comptroller in 1978 and re-elected in 1982, Simon, the former lieutenant governor and a 10-year Downstate congressman, 1978 loser Seith, and Illinois Senate President Phil Rock. In a turnout of 1,564,446, Simon won with 556,757 votes (35.5 percent of the total cast), and Burris finished second with 360,182 votes (23 percent). Burris ran first in both Chicago and the Cook County suburbs. Of Burris's 247,294 Chicago votes, 169,821 came from black-majority wards. Overall, Burris got about 10 percent of the white vote, and Simon got about 10 percent of the black vote.

1992: Braun, then the Cook County recorder of deeds, ran against Downstate incumbent Alan Dixon, who also was opposed by lawyer Al Hofeld. In a turnout of 1,456,268, Braun got 557,694 votes (36.3 percent of the total cast), topping Dixon by 53,617 votes, with Hofeld finishing with 27.1 percent. Braun ran first in Chicago, with 187,830 of her 298,664 city votes (51.2 percent) coming from black-majority wards; she also won the suburbs, getting 110,910 votes (39.5 percent of the total).

Overall, Braun got about a quarter of the white vote. She got 197,512 more votes than Burris in 1984, but only 18,009 more votes than Burris in the black wards. Braun's 36.3 percent of the vote was 13 percentage points higher than Burris's in 1984, but still a distinct minority.

2004: Obama, then an obscure state senator from Hyde Park, became the flavor of the month in the Democratic primary after allegations of spousal abuse sank frontrunner Blair Hull.

In a turnout of 1,242,996, Obama finished with 655,923 votes, with 52.8 percent of the votes cast. Obama ran first in Cook County, with 464,917 votes, and he got 301,199 votes in Chicago, of which 199,219 came from black-majority wards. Obama equaled Braun's 1992 citywide numbers, and he got 163,718 votes in the suburbs, about 53,000 more than Braun. Overall, Obama got about 100,000 more votes than Braun. Because the 2004 statewide turnout was 200,000 less than in 1992, and the black/white liberal vote was solid, Obama won an easy victory over six other candidates.

How do Burris's bids for governor compare?

1994: Burris faced Dawn Clark Netsch and Dick Phelan in the primary. In a turnout of 1,099,025, he amassed 401,142 votes (36.5 percent of the votes cast), losing to Netsch by 86,222 votes. Burris got 276,804 votes in Cook County, of which 223,157 were in Chicago and 173,634 were from the black wards.

1998: Burris faced Glenn Poshard, John Schmidt and Jim Burns in the primary. In a turnout of 950,307, he amassed 290,303 votes (30.5 percent of the votes cast), losing to Poshard by 66,949 votes. Burris got 234,222 votes in Cook County, of which 185,421 were in Chicago and were 154,595 from the black wards.

2002: Burris faced Blagojevich and Paul Vallas in the primary. In a turnout of 1,252,516, he got 363,591 votes (29.1 percent of the votes cast), finishing third. Burris got 265,868 votes in Cook County, of which 202,281 were in Chicago and 171,487 were from the black wards.

The trend:  Burris's support has declined, but his black base is solid. In the 2010 primary, the politically revived Burris is worth 35 percent of the vote.