December 31, 2008
LT. GOVRNOR "CURSE" HAUNTS QUINN'S HOPES
The scorecard for succession of Illinois' Lt. Governors is zero for 12. Of the office's 43 occupants since 1830, not a single sitting LG has been elected governor. Five have succeeded to the governorship, but only one was nominated to run for the job (and he lost); 3 lost primaries for governor; two lost elections. Two lost bids for US Senator. Lt. Gov. Pat Quinn (D) will be IL governor sooner rather than later, perhaps as soon as March 2009, when the "Rodiot" -- idiot Gov. Rod Blagojevich -- is impeached and removed. But Quinn's "honeymoon" will be brief. Fiscal matters will intervene. Atty. Gen. Lisa Madigan (D) is positioning herself to run in the 2010 Dem primary. LG's succeeded to the IL governorship in 1860, 1873, 1883, 1940, 1968, but none kept the post. What about "incapacity" or indictment? Gov. Henry Horner (D) suffered a stroke in Nov. 1938, but wasn't removed; he died in Oct. 1940. Gov. William Bissell (R) was a cripple for years (he served 1857-60), but wasn't removed. Gov. Len Small (R) was indicted in 1921 for conspiracy and embezzlement while IL treasurer, and was acquitted in 1922. He wasn't impeached. Only when LG's "upgrade" to a higher office, like Neil Hartigan to Atty. Gen. and George Ryan to Sec. of State, do they have a better shot at governor. Message to Quinn in 2010: You're bucking history. Full Article...
December 24, 2008
"DEALS" NOT UNUSUAL IN SENATE APPOINTMENTS
Message to the "Rodiot" -- meaning Illinois' idiot governor, Rod Blagojevich: When appointing US Senators, it's supposed to be a payback, not a payoff. In the past century, three IL governors have appointed senators, most recently in 1969. All were paybacks for past services/support rendered, not payoffs for future contributions. The 1969 appointment of Ralph Tyler Smith (R) by Gov. Dick Ogilvie (R) was a payback for their deal in 1967, wherein Smith, then IL House Speaker, agreed not to run for governor in 1968, and endorse Ogilvie. IF Ogilvie won, and IF ailing Sen. Everett Dirksen (R) died during Ogilvie's term, then Smith got the appointment. Dirksen died of cancer in 9/69, and Ogilvie kept his word. But Smith lost 42-58% to Adlai Stevenson III (D) in 1970. In 1939, ailing IL Gov. Henry Horner (D) appointed his 1936 campaign manager, Chicagoan James Slattery, to the "Ham" Lewis (D) vacancy, but Slattery lost to Curly Wayland (R) in 1940. And in 1926, Gov. Len Small (R) named his commerce commission chairman, Frank Smith (R), to an end-of-term vacancy, but the US Senate, after discovering that Smith got contributions from utility magnate Samuel Insull, refused to seat him. Scorecard for appointed senators: 3 paybacks, 2 defeats, and one failure to seat. Not an auspicious omen for the next appointed IL senator. Full Article...
December 17, 2008
NO "ROSY SCENARIO" IN BLAGOJEVICH SITUATION
In the sordid melodrama concerning Rod Blagojevich, Illinois' latest stupid and corrupt governor, at least four scenarios are possible. Legally: Will Blago fight or quit? Will the feds pile on a dozen or more charges in the January 2009 indictment? How long will it take to impeach him? Does Blago make a deal? Once he resigns, he has no leverage. Politically: How will the state grapple with a $5 billion budgetary shortfall during a Blagojevich-induced paralysis? How will Pat Quinn's ascension to the governorship impact on Lisa Madigan's ambitions? Will Blago run for re-election anyway? Here's 4 possible scenarios: (1) Rosy Scenario (for Democrats): Blago quickly resigns, the "crime spree" ends, voters forget, Dems win in 2010. (2) Nightmare Scenario: Blago won't quit, makes no plea, resists impeachment, and becomes THE STORY of 2009, crippling Democrats as the IL "Party of Corruption." (3) Small Scenario: Like ex-Gov. Len Small, who was elected in 1920, indicted in 1921, and acquitted in 1922, Blago demands a quick trial, wins, and claims "vindication." (4) Likely Scenario: Blago concludes that a good defense is a good offense, suddenly becomes engaged in governing, either raises taxes or slashes the budget, and ignores party and media demands to resign, remaining as Gov until late in 2009, when he is impeached and removed. Full Article...
December 10, 2008
KIRK, ROSKAM OVERCOME DEMOCRATS' "PLAYBOOK"
The "DCCC playbook," crafted by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), was signally successful in both 2006 and 2008. The premise was bash Bush, blame-everything-on-Bush, get-rid-of-Bush, and tie-your-opponent-to-Bush. Democrats won a net of 22 House seats in 2008, defeating 14 Republican incumbents. But it was "nada" in Illinois. Despite a herculean effort, and about $3.5 million, Democrat Dan Seals failed to oust incumbent Mark Kirk (R) in the North Shore 10th Dist. Seals, aided by DCCC cash, was on mainstream media with a torrent of TV ads linking Kirk to Bush's "failed" Iraq policy and to October's economic catastrophe. But Kirk's 8 years in office, appeal to Jewish voters, $5 million in spending, and a phenomenal "ground game" of precinct workers, prevailed. Kirk won by 14,906 votes (52.2%), and ran particularly well in the Cook County suburbs, where other Republicans were decimated. Kirk lost Lake County by 1,592 votes. Kirk is now entrenched. In the west suburbs, incumbent Peter Roskam (R), buoyed by the legendary DuPage Co. Republican machine, won the county by 36,563 votes (while Obama carried it), and was re-elected. Roskam is now entrenched. Full Article...
December 3, 2008
OBAMA TIDE FAILS TO SWEEP OUT MULLIGAN
Victory has a thousand fathers. And one, ironically, in the northwest suburban 65th Illinois House district, is PersonalPAC, the pro-abortion lobbying and political action committee. Republican incumbent Rosemary Mulligan has a long pro-choice history, and PersonalPAC's philosophy is that that don't want anyone, anytime, anywhere to defeat one of their favored incumbents. Democrat Aurora Austriaco, an Asian-American, was 2008's poster child for "change" and "diversity"; she was also pro-choice. But she ran a clueless campaign, and carried the baggage of having her law firm donate $109,496 to Gov. Rod Blagojevich, and get $1.46 million in state business (guardianships and mental health cases). She denied any involvement in "pay-to-play," but the allegations undermined her campaign. Mulligan was also strong with community activists and social workers, who usually revile Republicans. Over 6,000 voters supported Dan Kotowski (D) for state senator, and Mulligan. Obama won Maine Township with 58.9%, but Mulligan topped Austriaco 21,307-17,698 (54.6%). Mulligan, 67, might retire in 2010. Full Article...
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