November 19, 2008
"BLACK TIDE" ENGULFS PERAICIA, REPUBLICANS

ANALYSIS & OPINION BY RUSS STEWART

It was worse than a debacle. It was beyond a catastrophe. Republican candidates were not just defeated on Nov. 4, they were annihilated.

There is no longer a viable Republican Party in Cook County. The 2008 results were horrific, and the party's future outlook is horrendous.

Republican presidential candidate John McCain got 13.7 percent of the Chicago vote, losing all 50 city wards. In Chicago's 20 black-majority wards, McCain got an infinitesimal 12,894 votes, or 2.8 percent of the votes cast, compared to Barack Obama's 453,152 votes -- a veritable "black tide" reminiscent of the huge Harold Washington outpourings in the 1980s.

In some South Side wards the McCain vote verged on nonexistent. Obama won the 6th Ward by 28,549-168 (with 99.3 percent of the vote), the 8th Ward by 29,218-185 (99.2 percent), the 17th Ward by 23,490-95 (99.3 percent), the 21st Ward by 30,226-171 (99.2 percent), the 34th Ward by 28,001-127 (99.4 percent) and the West Side 24th Ward by 21,271-125 (99.2 percent).

In 1983 Washington got 459,684 votes in the predominantly black wards in the mayoral election, to 31,090 (6.3 percent) for Republican Bernie Epton. Washington beat Epton citywide by 668,176-619,926, with Epton clobbering Washington by 588,836-208,492 in the predominantly white and Hispanic wards. Now, 25 years later, Obama equaled Washington black base vote and also obliterated McCain in the white and Hispanic wards by 466,295-134,658. Then, white voters resisted having a black mayor; now, they embrace a black president.

In the city's 11 Hispanic-majority wards, Obama's race was less important than McCain's party affiliation: McCain got 14.2 percent of the vote. McCain got 20.2 percent in the nine Lakefront and inland upscale wards and 30.8 percent in the four Southwest Side predominantly white wards.

Even in the six largely white Northwest Side wards, where local Democratic organizations exerted minimal effort on behalf of Obama, McCain got only 30.7 percent of the vote, with his best showing in the 41st Ward, which Obama won with 55.3 percent of the vote. Obama carried the 45th Ward with 66.9 percent, the 39th Ward with 72.5 percent, the 36th Ward with 68.2 percent, the 38th Ward with 71.5 percent and the 40th Ward with 82 percent (see chart).

Republican George Bush got 164,930 votes in Chicago in 2000, and he increased that to 189,538 votes in 2004. McCain got 145,532 votes in Chicago, fewer than Bush got 8 years ago. By comparison, Democrat Al Gore got 769,859 votes in Chicago in 2000, and John Kerry upped that to 844,796 in 2004. Obama got 919,447 votes in Chicago, largely due to a huge black turnout. The citywide Democratic presidential vote has spiked by nearly 150,000 in 8 years. Quite incredibly, Chicago is becoming more Democratic.

McCain got 32.3 percent of the suburban Cook County vote, losing 27 of 30 townships. In the six heavily black townships -- Proviso, Bloom, Calumet, Bremen, Rich and Thornton -- Obama averaged 81.8 percent of the vote. In the white liberal enclaves of Evanston and Oak Park and in Hispanic-majority Berwyn and Cicero townships, McCain barely exceeded 20 percent of the vote. On the North Shore, in Maine, New Trier, Northfield and Niles townships, McCain failed to attain 40 percent of the vote. Notably, McCain lost by 3-2 margins in the onetime west Republican strongholds of Leyden, Norwood Park, Schaumburg, Wheeling, Palatine, Elk Grove and Hanover townships.

McCain won only the county's three fastest growing and most affluent townships: Barrington with 56.5 percent of the vote and south suburban Orland and Lemont, with, respectively, 50.4 percent and 55.7 percent. Bush won five townships in 2004.

Gore beat Bush by 510,688-369,612 in the suburbs, while Kerry beat Bush by 594,928-407,867. Obama pounded McCain by 689,423-334,863, getting 66.6 percent of the vote. In 8 years the countywide Democratic presidential vote has spiked by nearly 179,000.

As recently as the early 1990s, Republicans managed to win countywide office by amassing at least 66 percent of the suburban vote and one-third of the Chicago vote. That was the formula for wins in 1986, 1990 and 1992. But now it's the Democrats who are cresting two-thirds of the suburban vote, and Republicans can barely crack 15 percent of the Chicago vote.

Also drowning in the anti-Republican undertow was Tony Peraica, the bombastic Republican candidate for state's attorney. Peraica, a Cook County commissioner, ran for Cook County Board president in 2006 and got 46.3 percent of the vote in a turnout of 1,263,539, losing to Todd Stroger, a black Democrat of dubious qualifications. Peraica won 60.4 percent of the suburban vote and 31.5 percent of the Chicago vote -- respectable numbers for a Republican.

This year, against Democrat Anita Alvarez, Peraica ripped alleged racism and incompetence in the office and promised to battle pervasive corruption in city and county government. He sought to position himself as the candidate of "change" and label Alvarez, the chief deputy state's attorney, as the candidate of the status quo. He failed miserably, and he got just 26.4 percent of the vote in a turnout of 1,854,367. Peraica won 34.3 percent of the suburban vote and 16.1 percent of the city vote.

"It was simply not a hospitable environment for any Republican," Peraica said. "Most (voters) voted for every Democrat for every office, and the Democrats had the money and manpower to deliver their 'blame the Republicans' message." Peraica said he spent about $350,000, to Alvarez's $2 million.

Peraica noted that he got 584,568 votes in 2006 and 489,964 votes on Nov. 4 -- a decline of about 100,000 votes. However, whereas Stroger got 679,025 votes in 2006, Alvarez' total exploded to 1,364,403 -- an increase of 685,000 votes, and roughly double Stroger's tally.

"It is a day of reckoning for the Republicans," Peraica said. "I thought I had a unique mixture of ideas and issues that appealed to minorities, women, liberals and suburbanites. I thought the Republican philosophy of lower taxes, efficient and smaller government, and ethics and integrity still had appeal. I was wrong. The party has no appeal to blacks and Hispanics, and my outreach was ineffective."

Peraica got 27,295 votes in the predominantly black wards, almost double McCain's total of 12,894 votes but still an anemic 7.1 percent of the votes cast. Black media had been vocal in denouncing the state's attorney's role in the Jon Burge police torture affair and various wrongful prosecutions, but Alvarez's tie to the office mattered little. She got 358,462 votes, or nearly 100,000 fewer than Obama. In the predominantly black suburban townships where Obama trounced McCain by 224,484-51,183 (with 81.5 percent of the vote), Alvarez topped Peraica by 197,184-53,436 (with 78.7 percent of the vote).

More than 125,000 black voters voted for Obama but not Alvarez. In 2006 Peraica got almost 20 percent of the black vote, which was an anti-Stroger protest vote. On Nov. 4 anti-status quo blacks refused to vote rather than vote for a Republican.

Alvarez, a career prosecutor who resides in the suburbs, has never been active in Hispanic politics, but she caught the anti-Republican wave among Hispanics. In the 11 wards in Chicago with a large Hispanic population, Alvarez won 111,213-21,485 (with 83.9 percent of the votes cast), comparable to Obama's 129,150-21,409 (85.8 percent) pasting of McCain. Alvarez won the two predominantly Hispanic suburban townships 21,205-7,841 (with 73 percent of the vote), lagging behind Obama's 24,862-7,111 (77.8 percent) win. Peraica got almost a third of the Hispanic vote against Stroger.

Despite speculation that Hispanic voters might be reluctant to support a black candidate, it should be noted that Obama got 21,594 more votes than Alvarez in Cook County's Hispanic areas.

It was thought that Peraica was using his 2008 bid to maintain his visibility and position himself for another race for county board president. "I'm considering my options," he said, adding that no Republican can win in Cook County unless they have the funds for "massive marketing on mainstream TV." To be sure, Peraica is still well known and his loss is more of a party repudiation than a personal one, but it is now obvious that his 2006 vote was mostly anti-Stroger, not pro-Peraica.

Against a credible Democrat such as Alvarez, Peraica had no appeal among minorities, liberals or even ethnic Democrats. If he runs against Stroger in 2010, he might have a chance. Democrat Paul Vallas, the former Chicago Public Schools chief executive officer, may switch parties and run in the Republican primary, as might Republican county Commissioner Liz Gorman. If Stroger is beaten in the Democratic primary by Forrest Claypool or Mike Quigley, who are sitting white commissioners, then the Republican nomination will be meaningless.

The good news for the Republicans is that their situation can't get any worse. Forthcoming headlines regarding public corruption will concern Democrats, and those indicted will be Democrats. Obama may not solve the country's economic problems. Bush will be a memory. Racial animosity may again surface.

But the point is this: Only if Democrats nominate flawed, inept or ethically challenged candidates can a Republican win in Cook County -- and maybe not even then.