October 29, 2008
REPUBLICAN "OPTIMISTS" WON'T NEED BARF BAGS

ANALYSIS & OPINION BY RUSS STEWART

For some Republicans, election night barf bags won't be needed. Despite anticipated political carnage and the likely election of Barack Obama, there is reason for Republican optimism.

Ironically, if not perversely, Republican "optimists" are hoping for an Obama victory, while "pessimists" are fearful of a John McCain win.

Optimists are convinced that the economy will continue to collapse, that the Iraq situation will remain unresolved, that the public will blame the next president (Obama), that George Bush will be soon forgotten, and that the Republicans will rebound in the 2010 elections. Their viewpoint: Lose now, win later.

Pessimists also are convinced that the economy will deteriorate and that Iraq will remain intractable, that the public will blame the next president (McCain), that Bush will be remembered, and that Democratic congressional majorities will grow from sizable to monstrous in 2010. Their viewpoint: Win now, lose later, and put Hillary Clinton in the White House in 2012.

Without question, the Nov. 4 election will elicit the highest voter turnout in history. Voters are angry, anxious, fearful, wrathful and mournful. They want a "way out" of the mess. They want to eradicate all memory of the Bush Administration. They want to bring back the happy days of Bill Clinton.

That is apparent with unprecedented early voting numbers. Those voters can't wait to make a statement, and they're not voting Republican.

Nationwide turnout in 2004 was 122 million, and it will hit 140 million this year. Black turnout will be stratospheric, and black voters will vote Democratic for every office. However, a lot of working class white voters will opt for McCain, but that will be counteracted by millions of suburban whites picking Obama. Here are my predictions:

President: A McCain victory is not impossible, but it is improbable. Bush got 286 electoral votes in 2004, but the pro-Bush states of Iowa, Nevada, Colorado and Virginia are likely to flip to Obama. If McCain wins Ohio, Florida and North Carolina and scores an upset in Pennsylvania, he's president. My prediction: Obama wins.

President (Illinois): The last Illinoisan to run for president was Adlai Stevenson. He lost the state by 443,407 votes in 1952 and by 847,646 votes in 1956. Obama won't replicate that feat. The only question: Will he beat McCain by more than one million votes?

Clinton won Illinois by 719,254 votes in 1992 and by 754,723 votes in 1996. Bush lost Illinois by 569,605 votes in 2000 and by 545,604 votes in 2004. Obama won his U.S. Senate race in 2004 by 2,206,766 votes. Kerry won the three Chicago-area black-majority congressional districts in 2004 by 691,717-136,426, getting 83.5 percent of the vote. Obama will up that to 90 percent. Kerry won Chicago by 655,258 votes. Obama will up that to 850,000. My prediction: Black turnout will hit Harold Washington levels, but a lot of ethnic white voters -- especially on the Northwest Side -- will vote for McCain. Obama will win Illinois by 1.3 million votes.

U.S. Senator: Incumbent Dick Durbin is about as exciting as a dish of pudding, but he's going to overwhelmingly win a third term. Obama voters will choose Durbin, as will most Chicago pro-McCain Democrats. Republican Steve Sauerberg has absolutely no identity. My prediction: In a statewide turnout of 5.8 million, Durbin will get 65 percent of the vote, winning by close to 1.5 million votes -- and running ahead of Obama.

Cook County State's Attorney: Republican Tony Peraica is running for the right office in the wrong year against the wrong opponent. Peraica got 47 percent of the vote in a 2006 bid for Cook County Board president against Todd Stroger. Corruption is epidemic in Chicago and Cook County. His Democratic opponent, Anita Alvarez, has worked for the state's attorney's office for 22 years. Peraica is trying to portray her as part of the problem, and he argues that putting a Republican in the office would be real "change."

Shouldn't that mean an avalanche of Obama-Peraica votes? Not a chance. Alvarez is not Stroger. Black and Hispanic voters will go over 90 percent for Alvarez, and suburban and Lakefront white liberals, especially women, will be strong for Alvarez. My prediction: Peraica wants a second crack at Stroger in 2010. To maintain his credibility, he needs to run 20 percent ahead of McCain. He'll lose with 37 percent of the vote, which won't be embarrassing in a blowout Democratic year.

10th U.S. House District (North Shore): Incumbent Republican Mark Kirk has got a deck chair on the Titanic. Kirk is a social liberal, but he has been a stalwart supporter of Bush's Iraq policies. Now he's being ripped as a supporter of Bush's economic policies. Both Kirk and his Democratic foe, Dan Seals, are proclaiming themselves as "independents." Seals paints Kirk as a Bush stooge, and he wants an immediate Iraq troop withdrawal. Kirk got 64 percent of the vote in 2004, running 42,957 votes ahead of Bush, who got 47 percent in the district.

 Seals, who is black, is wrapping himself tightly to Obama. A recent SurveyUSA poll had Seals up 52 percent to 44 percent, with Obama beating McCain in the district by 62 percent to 36 percent. My prediction: Kirk will run at least 8 percent ahead of McCain, but he can't win unless McCain cracks 45 percent in the district. Seals will triumph by 30,000 votes.

11th U.S. House District (south suburbs, Will and Kankakee counties): If voters want "change," electing Democrat Debbie Halvorsen, a 12-year state senator and a consistent backer of Governor Rod Blagojevich, ain't it, but Halvorson is favored over concrete construction magnate Marty Ozinga. Halvorsen is ripping Ozinga ripping him as an insensitive, greedy, millionaire Republican. Ozinga's route to victory is to tie Halvorson to Blagojevich, but he has failed to do so. Bush won the district in 2004 with 53 percent of the vote. My prediction: Halvorson will win with 52 percent of the votes cast.

14th U.S. House District (Fox River Valley: Elgin, Aurora, Yorkville): Jim Oberweis is the kind of unelectable Republican that poisons his party: arrogant, humorless, self-righteous and intolerant. Oberweis spent $1.7 million and got 47 percent of the vote in the March special election to replace Republican House Speaker Denny Hastert. The winner was Democrat Bill Foster. Hastert got 69 percent of the vote in 2004 and 60 percent in 2006. Was Oberweis' dismal showing a personal rejection? Or a Republican rejection? My prediction: Foster wins again, this time with 60 percent of the vote.

In the Illinois General Assembly, Democrats have a 37-22 majority in the Senate and a 67-51 majority in the House. Squabbling among Democrats has caused Blagojevich's popularity to plummet. The latest Chicago Tribune poll had his approval rating at an anemic 13 percent. Republicans are trying to make the 2008 legislative contests a referendum on the governor. Here are key area races:

20th Illinois House District (Northwest Side): Republican incumbent Mike McAuliffe is a likable guy in a district with plenty of traditionally Democratic working class residents, city employees and Irish-American voters. Kerry won the district in 2004 with 55 percent of the vote, but Obama won't top 40 percent in 2008. Unlike suburban white voters, who seem to be enraptured by Obama, many Northwest Side white voters are appalled at the prospect that he will occupy the White House.

McAuliffe's Democratic foe is Mike Marzullo, who has endorsed Obama and who has run an inept, underfunded campaign. My prediction: McAuliffe will win with 55 percent of the vote, and McCain will take the district with 61 percent of the votes cast.

65th Illinois House District (Park Ridge, Des Plaines): Republican incumbent Rosemary Mulligan is a much-beloved icon, having served since 1992. She is pro-choice, socially liberal and a woman -- a perfect fit for the district. She was unopposed in 2006, but an Obama sweep is in the offing, perhaps as high as 60 percent, and Democrat Aurora Austriaco is wrapping herself in the mantle of "change." At least 80 percent of the Obama voters will hit for Austriaco.

My prediction: Unless McCain gets 45 percent, Mulligan will lose. Expect Austriaco to win by 800 votes, with 51 percent of the votes cast.

66th Illinois House District (Mount Prospect, Elk Grove): Republican incumbent Carolyn Krause is retiring. Democrat Mark Walker has outworked, outspent and outshone Republican Christine Prochno. Walker has one huge flaw: He was arrested twice for driving while intoxicated within 24 hours. Republicans have failed to spend the money to make this an issue. My prediction: Walker will win.

17th Illinois House District (Glenview, Skokie, parts of Winnetka and Wilmette): Republican incumbent Beth Coulson is an accomplished "RINO" -- Republican in name only. She is a social liberal and a fiscal conservative. She refused to endorse Bush in 2004. Her Democratic opponent, Daniel Biss, is positioning himself as the "change" candidate and lumping Coulson into the "mess" in Springfield. Are voters in the district idiots? If they elect Biss, they are. My prediction: Coulson wins with 55 percent of the vote.

53rd Illinois House District (Buffalo Grove, Arlington Heights, Prospect Heights): Republican incumbent Sid Mathias, the former village president of Buffalo Grove, is a respected legislator. The Obama tide is his doom. My prediction: Mathias loses.

The bottom line: Democrats in 2009-10 will have a majority of 38-21 in the Senate and 72-46 in the House. The Springfield squabbling will continue.