October 15, 2008
ECONOMIC "COLLAPSE" DOOMS KIRK'S CHANCES

ANALYSIS & OPINION BY RUSS STEWART

In China, where by tradition years are named after animals, 2008 would be the "Year of the Turkey." In America, where years are remembered by events, 2008 is the "Year of the Collapse."

In sports, the 97-game winning Chicago Cubs collapsed, swept by the Dodgers in the National League divisional series.

In the real estate market, the collapse of property values has yet to abate. Paralysis prevails. Buyers are fearful that their new home will continue to decline in value. Sellers are appalled at the decline in their property values and are waiting until the market "bottoms out." Lenders are swamped with defaults and foreclosures, lack money to lend, and require 20 percent down for first-time home buyers.

In the financial market, the stunning collapse of stock prices and the resultant diminution of IRA, 401(k) and stock portfolio values mean further paralysis. There is no place else to put their money, so investors have to hunker down and wait for a market rebound, which may take years, so they won't be using those funds to buy real estate.

And in the political realm, Nov. 4 will evidence the collapse of support for Republican candidates everywhere, as angry and panicked voters vent their frustration on the "Party of Bush." The congressional elections have been "nationalized." Even though the Democratic-controlled 110th Congress has been unproductive, unpopular and uninspiring, no blame will attach to Democratic candidates. All blame will attach to the Republicans. The Republican minority in the U.S. Senate and the U.S. House will dwindle close to levels not seen since 1964, when the Democrats had 68-32 and 295-140 majorities, respectively.

The Democratic majorities at present are 51-49 and 233-202. According to current polling, Democrats will win the presidency and pick up eight to 10 Senate seats and 20 to 30 House seats.

In Illinois the most notable victim will be four-term U.S. Representative Mark Kirk, of the North Shore 10th District. Another Republican casualty will be wealthy concrete construction company owner Marty Ozinga, who is trying to hold the open far south suburban 11th District.

The Illinois congressional delegation is now 11-8 Democratic. In 2009 it will be 13-6, with the fewest Republicans since the 1930s. Here's an analysis of both contests:

10th District: Stretching from Wilmette to Waukegan and west to Palatine, the district takes in the east half of Lake County (North Chicago, Lake Bluff, Lake Forest, Highland Park, Deerfield, Riverwoods, Bannockburn, Lincolnshire, Buffalo Grove, Vernon Hills, Libertyville and Gurnee), as well as upscale Cook County north of Central Road (Winnetka, Wilmette, Glencoe, Kenilworth, Glenview, Northfield, Northbrook, Wheeling and Arlington Heights, plus parts of Palatine and Inverness).

The last Democrat elected to Congress from the area was Abner Mikva in 1978, who won by 650 votes. The last Republican to win the district for president was George Bush, who got 43 percent of the vote in 1992. Democrat Bill Clinton won 50 percent of the vote in 1996, Al Gore got 51 percent in 2000, and John Kerry got 53 percent in 2004.

The population of the district in the 2000 census was 653,647. Of that number, 75.9 percent were white collar, 75.2 percent were white, 12.3 percent were Hispanic and 5.3 percent were black. About one-third of the registered voters are Jewish.

Kirk, age 49, barely won the seat in 2000. Longtime (1980 to 2001) Republican incumbent John Edward Porter retired, and Kirk beat Lauren Beth Gash, a Jewish state representative from Deerfield, by 5,658 votes in a turnout of 237,506. Kirk got 121,582 votes, almost identical to the 123,982 that George Bush got, and spent $2 million; Gash got 115,924 votes, almost 20,000 fewer than the 134,149 that Gore got, and spent $1.9 million.

In Congress Kirk compiled liberal record on social issues, supporting abortion rights, gay rights and gun control -- views in line with the district. But he also supported Bush's policies in Iraq, backing the "surge" and opposing a timetable for withdrawal. He was re-elected by a margin of 70,311 votes (with 68.8 percent of the votes cast) in 2002, by 78,275 votes (with 64.1 percent of the vote) in 2004 and by 13,651 votes (with 53.4 percent of the vote) in 2006. Kirk's views on Iraq are no longer in line with the district. It is the Democratic congressional vote that is surging, and Kirk's vote is regressing.

Kirk won 128,611-58,300 in 2002, 177,493-99,218 in 2004 (while Kerry topped Bush 150,267-134,536), and 107,929-94,278 in 2006, beating underfunded Democrat Dan Seals, who spent $1.8 million to Kirk's $3.5 million. Seals is running again, and he clearly understands that the key to victory is to cure Democratic voter collapse. Gash ran 18,225 votes behind Gore in 2000, and Lee Goodman ran 51,049 votes behind Kerry in 2004. A majority of voters prefer a Democrat for president but a Republican for Congress.

The November election will be different. There is no doubt that Barack Obama is going to solidly beat John McCain in the district, probably by upwards of 40,000 votes, and Seals, a black investment banker, is wrapping himself tightly to Obama, parroting the mantra of "change" and funding major television advertising buys ripping Kirk for praising Bush as "decisive," for "taking us to war" and for being "irresponsible." Seals seeks a timetable to withdraw troops from Iraq.

Seals had $1.2 million on hand as of July 1, compared to Kirk's $2.9 million. Kirk is a likeable guy, and he voted twice for the $700 billion "bailout," but he's become damaged goods. Being a "Bush buddy" is a ticket to oblivion.

My prediction: Affluent voters are not all alike politically. Those in the Lake County suburbs are somewhat more liberal and Democratic. Gash won Lake County by 3,625 votes in 2000 but lost Cook County by 9,283 votes. In 2006 Seals lost Lake County by 1,393 votes and Cook County by 12,258 votes. But those voters are alike financially, as they angrily watch their net worth dwindle.

In 2000 Kirk won virtually all of the Bush vote and about 8 percent of the Gore vote. In 2004 he again won virtually all of the Bush vote, plus 29 percent of the Kerry vote. This year, in a turnout of 315,000, Obama will carry the district with 57 percent of the vote, and 95 percent of the Obama voters will support Seals, who will beat Kirk by 30,000 votes.

11th District: More working class than upper class, this suburban-rural district has been trending Democratic for a decade. It contains eight counties, the largest of which are Will and Kankakee, and it stretches from Indiana west to Princeton and south to the Bloomington/Normal suburbs. It takes in Joliet, Kankakee, New Lenox, Mokena, Plainfield, Streator, Ottawa, Morris and LaSalle. Republican incumbent Jerry Weller, who has been elected to seven terms, is retiring amid some wisps of scandal.

Both 2008 contenders have serious flaws. The Democrat is state Senator Debbie DeFrancesco Halvorson of Crete, in Will County, the Senate majority leader. She has been a loyal cog in Senate President Emil Jones' machine and a dutiful supporter of Governor Rod Blagojevich. The Republican is Ozinga, who has name identification from his far-flung construction business, which is headquartered in Mokena, whose father was a longtime state senator, and who can self-fund.

Like Kirk, Weller has seen his pluralities diminish. He won by 124,192-68,893, with 64.3 percent of the vote, in 2002, and by 173,057-121,903 (58.7 percent) in 2004, running 10,278 votes ahead of Bush, who won the district with 53 percent of the votes cast. In 2006 he won by 109,009-88,846, getting 55.1 percent of the vote. The district is 55 percent white collar, 83.7 percent white, 7.8 percent black and 6.7 percent Hispanic.

The operative question: How well will a liberal black candidate such as Obama run in a middle class white district?

Halvorson, age 50, whose Senate district encompasses the eastern parts of Will and Kankakee counties, is counting on a Democratic sweep, and she expects to run at least 5 percent ahead of Obama. Like Seals, she is running on a "change" theme.

 Unlike Kirk, first-time candidate Ozinga, age 58, doesn't have a record to defend, so Halvorson is portraying him as a Bush-like "fat cat" businessman, knocking his 1,200-employee firm for not timely paying $59,000 in corporate taxes, and knocking him for opposing expanded health care coverage.

Ozinga is slamming Halvorson as a vassal of the enormously unpopular governor, claiming that she repeatedly voted for tax hikes in Springfield.

As of July 1 Halvorson had cash on hand of $916,000, and Ozinga had $810,000.

My prediction: Turnout will be at least 300,000, with 132,000 in Will County and 43,000 in Kankakee County. That leaves 125,000 in the rural areas, where Ozinga, like Weller before him, will win with 57 percent of the vote.

The key is Will County, where Bush beat Kerry by 130,728-117,172. Expect Obama to get 51 percent of the vote and Halvorson to get 57 percent, for a margin of 18,500 votes. Halvorson will win Kankakee County by 3,000 votes. Ozinga will take 56 percent of the vote in the rural counties, for a margin of 15,000 votes. That's a Halvorson win by 6,500 votes.