October 29, 2008
REPUBLICAN "OPTIMISTS" WON'T NEED BARF BAGS
Bring out the barf bags. For Republicans, Nov. 4 will be a dismal and nauseating evening. There are some "optimists" -- who hope for an Obama win, followed by economic and political catastrophe. And there are some Republican "pessimists" -- who dread a McCain win, followed by economic and political catastrophe. But, for realists, here's my predictions: Obama wins 291-247. Obama wins Illinois by 1.3 million. Durbin wins by 1.5 million. Alvarez beats Peraica for state's attorney, with the Republican getting 37%. Kirk loses in the 10th Dist. Halvorson wins in the 11th Dist. Oberweis loses again. In IL legislative races, winners will be McAuliffe (R-20) and Coulson (R-17); Austriaco (D) beats Mulligan in the 65th, Walker (D) wins in the 66th, Mathias (R) loses in the 53rd. Another loser will be turncoat Froehlich (D) in the 56th Dist. Sen. Kotowski (D) wins in Park Ridge and Sen. Murphy (R) wins in Palatine. Full Article...
October 22, 2008
"HARVEY GANTT FACTOR" SKEWS OBAMBA POLL SURGE
Barack Obama is the next president. Forget national polls. It's all about the Electoral College. In 2000, George Bush won by 271-267 electoral votes, due entirely to his 537-vote victory in Florida. In 2004, Bush beat John Kerry by 286-252, due largely to his win in Ohio. There is a Harvey Gantt Factor -- about 5% of white voters lie to pollsters and tell them they are voting for the black candidate. That means close Obama-McCain contests in states like North Carolina, Missouri, West Virginia, Indiana and Ohio will tip to McCain. But Obama is ahead by 5-10% in 18 states plus D.C., for a minimum of 238 electoral votes -- only 32 shy of the 270 needed. McCain is ahead in 18 states with 140 electoral votes. Iowa, a 2004 Bush state, will go for Obama. No 2004 Kerry state, except New Hampshire, will switch to McCain. McCain will win Florida, Ohio, Missouri, No. Carolina. Indiana, and West Virginia. But Obama will switch '04 Bush states Iowa, Nevada, Virginia, New Mexico and Colorado. That will give Obama 291 electoral votes -- and the presidency. Full Article...
October 15, 2008
ECONOMIC "COLLAPSE" DOOMS KIRK'S CHANCES
2008 is looming as the Year of the Collapse -- of the Chicago Cubs, of the financial markets, of the reeling real estate market, and of the Republicans in Congress. Illinois' U.S. House delegation is now 11-8 Democratic; after Nov. 4, it will be 13-6, the smallest number of IL House Republicans since the 1930s. Goners include Mark Kirk in the North Shore 10th District, and Marty Ozinga, running in retiring Jerry Weller's south suburban 11th District. Kirk won by 5,658 votes in 2000, getting about 8% of the Al Gore vote; in 2004, he won by 78,275 votes, getting 29% of the John Kerry vote. But 2008 is different. Voters wanting "change" will opt for both Barack Obama for president and Dan Seals for Congress. Obama will win the district, and if Democrat Seals gets 95% of the Obama vote, he'll beat Kirk. Expect Seals to win by 30,000 votes. In the 11th, Weller won with just 55.1% in 2006. Democrat Debbie Halvorson must win with 55%-plus in Will County, her base. Businessman Ozinga is blasting her for being a "Blagojevich stooge" in the IL Senate. She's ripping him for being a Bush-like fat-cat. Who's least popular: Blago or Bush? Expect Halvorson to win by 5,000 votes. Full Article...
October 8, 2008
U.S. ATTORNEY SUCCESSION AFFECTS STATE'S ATTY. RACE
All hail the 19th Ward, the looming legal powerhouse in Chicago, Cook County and Illinois. If Illinois' Barack Obama wins the White House, U.S. Attorney Patrick Fitzgerald is history -- despite his exemplary prosecutorial record. And his likely successor is Sheriff Tom Dart, a product of Chicago's far Southwest Side 19th Ward. At present, a bunch of 19th Ward political operatives, including Skinny Sheahan, brother of the ex-sheriff, are running the campaign of Democrat Anita Alvarez for state's attorney. Alvarez barely won the Feb. primary in a huge upset. She has now been welcomed into the womb of the Daley Establishment, which definitely does not want Republican Tony Peraica as the county's top prosecutor -- especially since his "core mission" is to combat official corruption. In what looms as a huge Democratic year, Alvarez will win. If Dart is the federal prosecutor, he can take some heat off the Daley Administration, and focus on state corruption -- like indicting and convicting Gov. Blagojevich. That would help current Atty. Gen. Lisa Madigan become governor, and her likely successor is state Comptroller Dan Hynes, son of 19th Ward committeeman Tom Hynes. It's trifecta time in the 19th Ward. And Dart, as U.S. Atty., will be well-positioned to run for mayor when Daley retires. Full Article...
October 1, 2008
BROWN NEEDS BIG WIN TO RESUSCITATE IMAGE
Dorothy Brown is not quite on political life-support, but she is in dire need of resuscitation. The Clerk of the Cook County Circuit Court, and onetime Great Black Hope, embarrassed herself with a dismal showing in the 2007 Chicago mayoral race, getting only 20%, and losing every black-majority ward to Mayor Daley. She's now in that political netherworld inhabited by such prior black mayoral losers as Tim Evans, Bobby Rush, Danny Davis, Roland Burris, Paul Jakes, Gene Pincham and Joe Gardner. They ran once, lost, and never got a second chance. In fact, lining up for a 2011 mayoral bid is the next Great Black Hope -- Jesse Jackson Jr. Brown has raised over $2.6 million since taking office in 2001, much from office employees. Her 2008 Republican foe, Diane Shapiro, ripped Brown as the "second worst" county officeholder, right behind Todd Stroger, and called her another "klepto-crat" who "operates by theft of public funds." Shapiro has a laundry list of how she will improve the clerk's office. Brown defends her record. Brown will surely win, but will she top 70%? But beating a Republican won't resuscitate her career. Full Article...
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