September 24, 2008
"WALKMAN" KOTOWSKI POISED TO WIN AGAIN
For Illinois Republicans, who are a 22-37 minority in the state senate, 2008 will be another SNAFU election -- i.e., situation normal: all fucked up. In 1994, the Republicans had a solid 33-26 senate majority; a decade later, it was still 32-27, largely due to Pate Philip's prodigious fundraising and conservative, pro-business posture. But the 2002 remap, coupled with the Republican collapse in the suburbs, has the GOP down to just 22 senators, with an egregious 5-seat loss in 2006. They're not irrelevant, and the Democrats' super-majority means they can pass any bill in overtime, or override the governor's veto. 2008 is another SNAFU. Only Dem incumbent Linda Holmes (D-42) is beatable. Park Ridge Democrat Dan Kotowski will win again. Open seats in Barrington/Wauconda and Galena/Freeport could, incredibly, fall to the Democrats. An incumbent in the DeKalb area is in danger. Only freshman Republican Matt Murphy, from suburban Palatine, who is using Todd Stroger's sales tax hike to great avail, looks safe. In 2009, the Republicans will still be a 22-37 minority. Full Article...
September 17, 2008
BLACK SUCCESSOR FOR JONES NOT GUARANTEED
"Once black, it never goes back." That's an enduring reality in Chicago and Cook County politics. Once a black occupies an office -- like Cook County board president, Clerk of Court, Recorder, and Chicago treasurer -- it stays black. To replace a black with a white (or Hispanic) is "racist," and will elicit a wave of anger from the black community. But that verity does not apply to Emil Jones' departure as IL Senate president. Jones, who is black, is a powerful player on the statewide scene, and is Gov. Rod Blagojevich's principal ally in the legislature, where Democrats have a 37-22 Senate majority. Jones was minority leader from 1992-2002, and president since 2003. He is passing off his Senate seat to his son. Almost a dozen senators, of which three are black, are angling for the presidency. They include John Cullerton, Terry Link, Don Harmon, Jeff Schoenberg, Ira Silverstein and John Sullivan (all white), and James Clayborne, Rickey Hendon and Donne Trotter (black). There are 9 black senators, 11 Downstaters, 5 white Chicagoans, 4 Hispanics, and 9 white suburbanites. So it's all about coalition-building. The best-positioned is Clayborne, a black from East St. Louis. If he gets the 8 Cook County blacks, plus himself and the 10 white Downstaters, he wins. But more militant blacks like Hendon want a Chicagoan, and deem Clayborne too moderate. The early frontrunner is Cullerton, but he may be too close to Mike Madigan. The big loser will be Blagojevich. The next Senate will not be his ally. A vote chart of area state senators can be accessed on this website under 2008 ILLINOIS SENATE VOTE CHART. Full Article...
September 10, 2008
PALIN VP PICK HELPS MCCAIN WITH GOP BASE
Liberals are already comparing Sarah Palin to such uninspiring former vice presidential nominees as Sprio Agnew, Dan Quayle and Bill Miller. But Palin was chosen not because of her qualifications to be president, but rather for her ability to ignite the John McCain campaign, and to motivate the conservative -- meaning pro-gun, pro-life, anti-pork spending -- Republican base. That, surely, she has done. Veep picks do not a victory make. They can be an albatross. Or they can be an asset. They can compensate, placate, aggregate, actualize, ameliorate and/or energize a struggling campaign. Reagan picked Bush (1980) to placate the GOP moderates; Stevenson picked Sparkman (1952) to placate Southern segregationists; Carter picked Mondale (1976) to placate liberals. Mondale picked Ferraro (1984) to energize liberals and feminists, and McCain picked Palin (2008) to energize social conservatives. Dukakis, a liberal, picked the moderate Bensten (1988) to compensate ideologically, as did Johnson's pick of Humphrey (1964). Occasionally, a veep is picked because he has presidential stature -- like Muskie (1968), Cheney (2000), Lieberman (2000), and Biden (2008). Clinton picked Gore (1992) because he was a kindred spirit, and a young "reformer." Dole picked Kemp (1996) and Eisenhower picked Nixon (1952) because they were younger. And Nixon (1968) and Bush (1988) picked non-entities, because they already had stature, and their veep pick was irrelevant. If Palin enables McCain to win, his choice of her will be a masterstroke. Full Article...
September 3, 2008
DEMOCRAT PRODS MCAULIFFE TO "COME OUT OF THE CLOSET"
Democrat Mike Marzullo wants to get State Rep. Mike McAuliffe "out of the closet." But he's talking in a political, not a sexual, context. Marzullo is a Democrat, and he is attempting to expose McAuliffe for what he is: A Republican. Marzullo, a Chicago city worker, has no money, no organization, and no name identification. But he's hoping that Northwest Side voters will reject every Republican on the 11/4 ballot, and that he'll be swept in. Marzullo called McAuliffe a "toady" for the "special interests." But Marzullo is a pigmy compared to past vanquished McAuliffe foes -- like Bob Bugielski and Ralph Capparelli. The McAuliffe name has been on the ballot every two years since 1972, and McAuliffe ran well ahead of George Bush in 2000 and 2004. Also, McAuliffe has been obsessive about opposing any rate, fee or state tax hike. Marzullo said he would be an "independent" Democrat, not a "Madigan monkey," if elected. McAuliffe will win easily. See 2008 ILLINOIS HOUSE VOTE CHART on this website for roll-call votes of area state representatives. Full Article...
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