August 27, 2008
DEMOCRATIC TREND PUTS KIRK AT RISK IN 10TH DIST.
Timing is everything: It's the happenstance of being in the right place at the right time -- of running for Congress in the right year in the right district. Rahm Emanuel (D) did so in 2002, and now he's on a track to be U.S. House speaker within the next decade. Mark Kirk (R) did so in 2000, when he narrowly won an open North Shore seat. Now he's facing Democrat Dan Seals, who is tying himself tightly to Barack Obama. Unless John McCain's vote implodes, Kirk should win narrowly. Peter Roskam (R) did so in 2006, when he barely beat Tammy Duckworth. But she's not running again, and Roskam, a staunch conservative, will win easily. Dan Lipinski (D) did so in 2004, when dad Bill, the district's 22-year incumbent, resigned his nomination hand handed the seat to his son. But Debbie Halvorson may get the 2008 Dunce Award. She is the IL Senate majority leader, and would have been a lock to succeed the retiring Pres. Emil Jones; but she's running for an open Will County-area congressional seat, and her ties to Gov. Rod Blagojevich are an issue. Wealthy Republican Martin Ozinga is running as "not a politician" in a slightly Republican area. Ozinga has the edge. The 2007-08 U.S. House Vote Chart can be accessed on this website. "2007-08 U.S. House votes." Full Article...
August 20, 2008
DURBIN'S RE-ELECTION IN 2008 IS NOT IN DOUBT
Illinois' Dick Durbin (D) wants to achieve the pinnacle of power in the U.S. Senate -- namely: majority leader. But his path is blocked by the current majority leader, Nevada's Harry Reid. The prevailing wisdom in Washington is that, should IL colleague Barack Obama (D) become president, Durbin's clout on Capitol Hill will mushroom. That may occur. But Durbin, at age 63, wants Reid's job, and cannot afford to wait 8 years to get it. If Republican John McCain wins the White House, Reid will likely retire in 2010 and hand off the job to his son (sort of like what is done in Chicago and Cook County), and Durbin could win Reid's job. But if Obama is president, Reid will stay put, and serve another term (to 2016). By then, Durbin will be too old and too much attached to Obama to move up. Ironically, for Durbin, an Obama loss is a Durbin gain. The 2007-08 roll-call votes of Durbin and Obama can be accessed on this website, under "2007-08 U.S. Senate votes." Full Article...
August 13, 2008
DURBIN'S INFLUENCE WILL EXPAND IF OBAMA WINS
Why isn't the Democratic-controlled Congress getting any blame for international and domestic problems? Rising unemployment, inflation, gas prices, food prices; an imploding real estate and auto market; no energy plan. Back in 1948, Harry Truman (D) ran against the "do nothing" Republican Congress, and won. Why aren't the Republicans and John McCain doing likewise? Yet Democrats seem poised to make substantial congressional gains in 2008 -- despite their non-record. Voters blame Bush and the Republicans. And those gains will likely result in a veto-proof, filibuster-proof U.S. Senate, with Democrats amassing a majority of 60 or more seats. Republicans are certain losers of seats in NH, CO, VA, and now Alaska, where the GOP incumbent is under indictment. Also, seats in Mississippi, Minnesota, Maine and Kentucky -- and even North Carolina -- are at risk. The only Republican pickup potential is in Louisiana. Expect Dems to gain 5-9 seats in the U.S. Senate. Full Article...
August 6, 2008
LAND OF LINCOLN" IS NOW "LAND OF OBAMA"
If Barack Obama becomes president, Illinois will no longer be known as the Land of Lincoln. It will be the Land of Obama. In the past, parties picked presidential candidates based on geography; now thery're picked based on personality, fund-raising capability, race, gender and/or ideology. Illinois is the home to two presidents: Abraham Lincoln and Ulysses Grant. Since 1932, the only Illinoisan to be nominated for president was Adlai Stevenson, in 1952 and 1956. In the 148 years since Lincoln's election, an eclectic array of prominent and credible Illinoisans have aspired for presidential nominations; only Stevenson and Stephen Douglas succeeded -- and they lost the election. Losers include John Logan, Shelby Cullom, Adlai Stevenson I, John Peter Altgeld, Frank Lowden, Scott Lucas, Everett Dirksen, Chuck Percy, Dick Ogilvie, Dan Walker, Jim Thompson and Paul Simon. Full Article...
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