January 16, 2008
"THREE STOOGES" REVIVED IN 20TH DIST. SENATE RACE
ANALYSIS & OPINION BY RUSS STEWART
The "Three Stooges" have been resurrected in the Democratic primary for state senator in the Northwest Side 20th District.
But instead of Moe, Larry and Curly, the three alleged buffoons are Rich, Iris and Rod. State Representative Rich Bradley (D-40) is challenging state Senator Iris Martinez (D-20), and the antics of Governor Rod Blagojevich have emerged as the central issue.
A "stooge" is defined as an underling to another, and it is a term of contempt. Martinez holds Bradley in contempt, deeming him a "Madigan Monkey," a stooge of Illinois House Speaker Mike Madigan and a do-nothing legislator. Bradley holds Martinez in contempt, deeming her a "Rod Rooter," a stooge of Illinois Senate President Emil Jones and a slavish supporter of the governor. "I'm generally supportive" of Blagojevich, Martinez admits.
Bradley switched to the Senate race after Deborah Mell, the daughter of Alderman Dick Mell (33rd) and the sister-in-law of the governor, told her dad she wanted his House seat. Bradley's contempt for Blagojevich is palpable: "Illinois has a dysfunctional state government and a dysfunctional governor," he said. "There is paralysis in Springfield, and Rod Blagojevich is to blame." Bradley adds: "The Illinois Senate marches in lockstep with the governor, and Martinez is one of his marchers." Of course, to Bradley, Madigan is "Mr. Wonderful," and he bears no blame.
"He's running against me because Dick Mell told him to make room for his daughter," Martinez said. "He always does what he's told -- by Madigan and by everybody else. He's spineless."
Bradley retorts, somewhat lamely, that he made a "life choice" and that he now wants to be a senator. "We need senators who are independent of the governor," he said. The Senate has a 37-22 Democratic majority and Jones can usually muster the 36 votes (or 60 percent majority) needed to pass bills in overtime sessions. "I will work to build a bipartisan, anti-Blagojevich majority," promised Bradley. "I could have kept my (House) seat if I ran," he added.
Also running is Carlos Guevara, on leave as chief of staff to Alderman Ariel Reboyras (30th), whom Martinez called a "hatchet man for Bradley." Guevara has sent out mailings ripping Martinez for joining with Blagojevich and Jones to eliminate the CeaseFire program and cut after-school funding.
"Voters are confused, especially Hispanic voters," Martinez said. "They know I have been active in the community. They know I have been a productive legislator. They don't understand why I am now the target of lies and slurs." Martinez said that she was "a leader in passing bills relating to health insurance, affordable housing, women's issues, day care and the environment. He has not passed a single bill this session."
The 20th District, which extends from Argyle Street to Bloomingdale Avenue, between Damen Avenue and Long Avenue, contains all or parts of nine Chicago wards. According to Bradley, it has a Hispanic population of 48 percent and a Hispanic voter pool of 43 percent. According to Martinez, it has a Hispanic population of 65 percent and a Hispanic voter pool of 50 percent. But the area is slowly gentrifying, particularly the east end between Damen and California Avenue and the north end around Albany Park. Upscale condominium developments and conversions are pushing out Hispanic families.
The district has 137 precincts, and Bradley claims that he has "workers four deep" in each of them. The bulk of the committeemen have endorsed Bradley, including the 33rd Ward's Mell (30 precincts), the 39th Ward's Randy Barnette (12 precincts), the 30th Ward's Reboyras (12 precincts), the 31st Ward's Joe Berrios (27 precincts) and the 38th Ward's Patty Jo Cullerton (two precincts). Berrios is the county Democratic chairman, and he is running for re-election to the Board of Review; his daughter, Toni Berrios, is the state representative from the south half of the 20th District. Bradley said that Joe Berrios will flood his ward and adjacent wards with money and manpower, pushing a Berrios-Berrios-Bradley slate. In addition, the remnants of the Hispanic Democratic Organization are now backing Bradley, due to the fact that Jones chose Martinez for an assistant majority leader post over pro-HDO state Senator Tony Munoz (D-1).
Only three committeemen are supporting Martinez: The 35th's Ward Rey Colon (28 precincts), the 26th Ward's Roberto Maldonado (four precincts) and the 1st Ward's Manny Flores (16 precincts). "She has no ground troops and is relying solely on mailings, which are being paid for by Jones," Bradley said. Bradley expects to spend around $300,000, and Martinez a like amount.
In 2007 Mell tried to oust Colon as alderman and poured 33rd Ward workers into the 35th Ward on behalf of Vilma Colom. Their technique was to contact voters early, ask what city services they needed, satisfy those requests, then come back, take credit and get their vote. It didn't work. Colon won with 62.3 percent of the vote. "I'm not Vilma," insisted Bradley. "I'm well known and well liked."
Bradley admits he is employing the same strategy. "It's all about service requests," he said.
Deborah Mell said she is "making no endorsement" in the Senate race.
Martinez, first elected in 2002, was the beneficiary of Mayor Rich Daley's Hispanic Democratic Organization, and Reboyras ran her campaign, beating then-Alderman Mike Wojcik, whom Reboyras succeeded in 2003. In a turnout of 22,499, Martinez thumped Wojcik by 13,839-8,660, getting 61.8 percent of the vote. That was the same primary in which Blagojevich was running for governor, and Mell backed Martinez. She won the 33rd and 31st wards by 2-1 margins, the 35th by 3-1 and the 26th by 4-1, and she lost the 30th by 2-1.
Bradley was once Wojcik's aldermanic chief of staff, and he is stressing his Hispanic heritage: His mother is Mexican American. A state representative since 1996, he has been the subject of media stories about the propensity of the "Bradley Clan" to secure a plenitude of public sector jobs. Bradley is an assistant general superintendent of the city Department of Streets and Sanitation. His brother Sean is a ward superintendent, and his brother Scott is a city laborer. His wife, Cynthia Santos, is a Metropolitan Water Reclamation District commissioner, and she has a second job with the Secretary of State's Office. His mother is on his wife's payroll. "I haven't gotten a single person, family or otherwise, hired since I've been a state representative," protested Bradley.
"I'm a full-time legislator," Martinez said. "He and his family are full-time payrollers."
The outlook: The 2002 primary was all about precinct clout, but key committeemen -- Mell, Berrios, Reboyras, Barnette -- who delivered for Martinez then are backing Bradley now. To win, Bradley needs to get 65 percent of the vote in his House district and to hold districtwide turnout under 20,000. It was 22,499 in 2002 and 19,651 in 2004. Martinez needs to spark an outpouring of Hispanic voter (and especially Latina) outrage, hope that the Clinton-Obama presidential contest drives voter turnout to 25,000, and keep Bradley under 55 percent in his base.
My prediction: Guevara will get 5 percent of the vote, and Bradley will top Martinez by 48 percent to 47 percent.
Metropolitan Water Reclamation District: The obscure agency, with an annual budget of $800 million and 2,100 employees, handles treatment and disposal of effluent, solid waste and flood runoff in Cook County. The district is in the final stage of its 100-mile-long, $3.2 billion Deep Tunnel project. Nine commissioners are elected (three every 3 years) to oversee operations, but the president (one of the commissioners) and the general superintendent are in charge. The water district's network of contractors are a fertile source of contributions to local Democrats.
Qualifications and credentials matter not in water district primaries. Ballot position (first and last), gender, Irish surnames, race and party endorsements definitely do. In 12 primaries since 1984, five incumbents have lost and 12 non-slated candidates have won. Voters just don't know the candidates.
The 2008 field includes nine candidates, with three incumbents, Kathy Meany, Frank Avila and Santos. The party-endorsed slate consists of Meany, Avila and attorney Dean Maragos, a major party donor. Santos was dumped because she did not attend slatemaking. According to Bradley, Mell and most of Madigan's allies are backing his wife. Diane Jones, who is a member of state Senator Rickey Hendon's organization, is first on the ballot, and she is backed by most black committeemen. Jones will be on their election day precinct palm cards, along with Obama and Howard Brookins for state's attorney. Two other black candidates, Ron Oliver and Derrick Stinson, are running they but have little support. Also on the ballot are Mariyana Spyropoulos and Matt Podgorski.
The outlook: Being female, first and black means Jones wins. Being female, slated and Irish-surnamed means Meany wins. Avila, Maragos and Santos are bunched 4-5-6 on the ballot. Give only a slight edge to Avila for the third spot, but any of the three could triumph.