January 2, 2008
BLACK DEMOCRATS NEED A FEB. 5 OBAMA SURGE

ANALYSIS & OPINION BY RUSS STEWART

For U.S. Senator Barack Obama, the Feb. 5 Illinois presidential primary is a classic case of "Veni, vidi, vici" -- "I came, I saw, I conquered." Obama will win Illinois easily.

The refrain for a legion of others, particularly black Democrats, is more self-centered: "I need, I hope, I pray." The size of the Obama vote and of the black turnout in Chicago and Cook County, and the trickle-down Obama vote to other black candidates, is critical to their prospects.

Here's an early analysis of contests in predominantly black wards and county contests featuring black contenders:

7th Ward (South Side: South Hyde Park, 71st Street to 104th Street): It would be trite and inaccurate to color the Democratic ward committeeman race between Alderman Sandi Jackson (7th) and county Commissioner Bill Beavers as the end of the beginning for Jackson or the beginning of the end for Beavers. In actuality, it's the end of the end for the "Beavers Clan" and the beginning of the beginning of a long reign by the "Jackson Clan."

Beavers, the ward's alderman from 1983 to 2006, resigned to be appointed as a county commissioner to replace the ailing John Stroger. Stroger's son Todd was named as his father's replacement as nominee for Cook County Board president, and Beavers was perceived as his mentor. To date, given Todd Stroger's inept job, Beavers is now Stroger's victim: Given Stroger's cuts in county jobs, especially at Stroger Hospital, Commissioner Beavers bears the blame. Beavers will lose as ward committeeman in 2008, and he will lose his job as commissioner in 2010.

In the 2007 aldermanic race, Jackson, the wife of U.S. Representative Jesse Jackson Jr. (D-2), demolished Beavers' daughter, Darcel Beavers, getting 6,462 votes (57 percent of the total cast), to 3,703 (33 percent) for Darcel.

The 2008 reality is this: Jesse Jackson is ascendant, and he is chairman of Obama's Illinois campaign. The voters in the 7th Ward are ready for change, as evidenced by the 2007 result. The alderman will beat the commissioner with at least 65 percent of the vote. Bill Beavers' hopes for re-election in 2010 are nonexistent. The Jesse/Sandi political base in the 7th Ward is rock solid. If Daley retires as mayor in 201l, Jesse Jackson is well positioned to run for the job.

3rd Ward (Near South Side: Bronzeville, 16th Street to 59th Streets, east of Vincennes Avenue to Paulina Street): Longtime Alderman Dorothy Tillman (1984 to 2007), who was first elected as a Harold Washington supporter, perpetually played the race card. She was the city's chief proponent of reparations for slavery, but she also was an ally of Mayor Rich Daley, and her ward, once nearly all black and with much public housing, became more upscale and whiter.

Tillman beat Pat Dowell by 52-35 percent in 2003. She led Dowell by 3,383-3,020 in the February 2007 primary, getting 42.7 percent of the vote. Local unions backed Dowell in the 2007 runoff, as Tillman had supported Daley on many issues, including the "big box" minimum wage ordinance. Dowell beat Tillman with 54 percent of the vote.

Tillman is not running for re-election as committeeman. The 2008 contest is between Dowell and state Representative Ken Dunkin (D-5), who backed Dowell in 2007, allegedly in exchange for a promise that she would back him for ward committeeman in 2008. Dowell rejects Dunkin's assertion.

The outlook: In 2007 the Near South Side 2nd Ward (Dearborn Park, North Bronzeville, Taylor Street, South Lawndale) ousted its black alderman and elected a white alderman, Bob Fioretti. The 3rd Ward will be next.

Dowell has been a reliable support of the mayor, but the ward is changing. Public housing along Michigan Avenue, Wabash Avenue and Taylor Street has been removed. Housing prices for units from 22nd Street to 55th Street have exploded. Low-income housing is now a memory. The white population is growing. Section 8 housing units, which normally contain two or more bedrooms, are perfect for converting into condominiums, and they are being bought by whites.

The black turnout will be huge, and Dowell will beat Dunkin, but some time in the next 10 years, the 3rd Ward will elect a white alderman.

Cook County State's Attorney: Incumbent Dick Devine is retiring, and there are six contenders for the Democratic nomination: Aldermen Howard Brookins (21st) and Tom Allen (38th), county Commissioner Larry Suffredin (D-13), assistant state's attorneys Bob Milan and Anita Alvarez, and former state official Tommy Brewer. Brookins and Brewer are black.

In three of the last four Illinois presidential primaries (1992, 2000 and 2004), turnout in Cook County averaged 675,000, with roughly 230,000 votes coming from the black-majority wards in the city and the black-majority townships in the suburbs.

If Brookins gets 90 percent of the black vote (207,000) and the white and Hispanic candidates split the remaining 445,000 votes, Brookins wins, but the question is, will it be 1990 all over again? That year former city treasurer and state senator Cecil Partee, who was appointed by the County Board to replace Daley as state's attorney, lost the election to Republican Jack O'Malley. In the campaign Partee was slammed as a slum landlord, a deadbeat father and a loan defaulter.

The issue in 2008 is corruption and trust, in both the city and county. Devine, Daley's former first assistant state's attorney and his ally, has been utterly inert in local prosecutions. Brookins, Brewer and Suffredin call for "reform," while Allen carefully avoids criticism of Daley or Devine but says that he would "ratchet up prosecutions" because "crime has changed, and the office must change."

Brookins, on the heels of a prospective city settlement by black suspects tortured by Chicago police commander Jon Burge, which could amount to more than $19.8 million, is playing the race card. He trumpets a quote from Leo Holt, an 18-year county judge, that the "system . . . is deeply racist." Added Brookins: "Prosecutors have forgotten to do justice. (There is) distrust among African Americans." Brookins hopes that Chicago cops' abuse of black prisoners, without consequence, will elicit a black voter response.

Brookins can win if he is perceived as the "reform" candidate -- sort of like an Obama junior, but he won't win if white voters perceive him as a deadbeat. In November an eviction notice was filed against Brookins for failing to pay $41,819 in rent on his LaSalle Street law office. Earlier he was sued for failing to pay $50,699 for his copying machines.

According to sources close to Allen's campaign, a whole load of negativity is about to descend on Brookins. Allen is backed by most white Democratic committeemen and by all the key unions, but Suffredin will run well among white liberal voters along the Lakefront and in the North Shore suburbs. If Obama spurs a black turnout of 30 to 35 percent of the countywide vote, if Brookins gets 90 percent of the black vote, and if 5 to 8 percent of liberal white voters back Brookins, he will win.

The outlook: If Allen can discredit Brookins, liberal white voters will stick with Suffredin. If Suffredin finishes with 15 to 18 percent of the vote, Allen could win with 35 percent of the vote. My early prediction: Brookins has the edge.

Cook County Recorder of Deeds: Recorder Gene Moore and his principal challenger, Alderman Ed Smith (28th), both are black. Moore is from the west suburbs, and Smith is from the West Side. Also running is John Kelly, who is white.

Moore succeeded Jesse White in 1999, and he was slated by the Democrats in 2007, but only because Smith did not appear before the slatemakers. Interestingly, Smith has been endorsed by Daley, which means that the white pro-Daley ward committeemen on the city's Northwest and Southwest sides, who will be backing Allen, also will support Smith. Chicago black committeemen will support Smith, an alderman since 1983 and a loyal backer of Harold Washington during the "Council Wars." Suburban black committeemen will back Moore, but suburban white committeemen will exert minimal effort on his behalf.

The outlook: Smith is a "movement" black, and he will be on the city's "black ticket" of Obama, Brookins, Smith, incumbent Dorothy Brown for clerk of the circuit court and Diane Jones for the Metropolitan Water Reclamation District. Smith will beat Moore, buoyed by a large white vote.

Appellate Court (1st District): There are two vacancies, and a black candidate likely will win both elections.

The candidates for the Calvin Campbell vacancy are John Steele, Frank Gardner and Richard Walsh. Steele and Walsh are Circuit Court judges, and Gardner is a former attorney for the water district. Steele, who is black, is a former alderman from the 6th Ward, where he succeeded Gene Sawyer, who became mayor in 1987. Steele is slated, and he is favored.

The slated candidate for the Ann Burke vacancy is incumbent Alan Greiman, but also running are Sharon Coleman, Maritza Martinez and William O'Neal. Coleman is black, and she will be on the "black slate." She will win.