November 28, 2007
SUBURBAN "UNALIGNMENT" DOOMING REPUBLICANS
America is undergoing a political "unalignment," in conjunction with a realignment. Historically Republican areas are turning Democratic, and historically Democratic areas, like the Deep South, are turning Republican. In the nation's suburbs, an unalignment by independent voters from both parties, coupled with the perception that the Republicans are macho, warlike, mean-spirited, intolerant and bigoted, has made that area fertile ground for Democrats in 2008. The "politics of culture," which means support by independents of abortion rights, gay rights, and gun control, is dooming the Republicans. Add to that Bill Clinton's clever proclamation back in the 1990s that taxes are really "investments," and the spawning of a plethora of local, county, state and federal programs, and suddenly a lot of voters think government is good, and taxes really do benefit them. Hence, Republican "tax cut" rhetoric is disdained. In Illinois' legislature, Democrats have huge majorities, thanks to turnovers of suburban seats in the last three election cycles. They have a 37-22 Senate majority, with 11 suburban senators; they have a 67-52 House majority, with 21 suburban representatives. That will grow in 2008. At risk for the Republicans are the 26th (McHenry Co.) and 27th (Palatine, Arlington Heights) Senate seats, and the 65th and 66th House districts, in the northwest suburbs. Unalignment is making the Republicans almost irrelevant in Springfield. Full Article...
November 21, 2007
FIVE "R'S" WILL DICTATE CONGRESSIONAL RESULTS
The proverbial "5 R's" -- reprieve, respite, reprise, regret and reject -- will dictate the 2008 results of congressional elections in at least six districts. At present, the Democrats have a 10-9 majority in the Illinois delegation. That could change: Democrats could gain up to 4 seats, or Republicans could gain one. In Chicago's black-majority South Side/south suburban 1st District, where Democrat Bobby Rush is the incumbent, the operative word is "reprieve." Rush's political base has collapsed, and his "street cred" (meaning street credentials) and focus on black victimhood has less and less appeal in a district with more and more upscale blacks and whites. Rush caught a break when State Sen. Kwame Raoul, of Hyde Park, didn't run. But Raoul, a clone of Barack Obama, will likely run in 2010, and beat Rush. A nasty Democratic primary is afoot in the North Shore 10th District, with who is Israel's better "friend" as a major issue. Ex-Clinton White House aide and Jewish lobbyist Jay Footlik is opposing 2006 nominee Dan Seals, who is black. Seals lost to Republican incumbent Mark Kirk in 2006 by 13,651 votes (47%). Both are anti-Iraq. Seals wants an immediate withdrawal of troops. Could that be anti-Isreal? Democrats "regret" that the primary helps Kirk. In the McHenry-western Lake County 8th District, incumbent Democrat Melissa Bean faces a big-spending Republican and an anti-Iraq primary foe. Republicans regret that Phil Crane didn't retire in 2004, allowing Bean to win. In the Fox River Valley 14th District, where ex-House Speaker Denny Hastert is retiring, Democrats hope Jim Oberweis is the GOP nominee. They're convinced voters will reject him as too arrogant, mean-spirited and doctrinaire. In Chicago's Southwest Side/southwest suburbs, Democrat Dan Lipinski faces anti-Iraq, pro-abortion Mark Pera. With two other candidates in the race, Pera will lose and have to run again in 2010. And it's a respite in the west suburban 6th District. Republican Peter Roskam beat Tammy Duckworth by 4,810 votes (51.4%) in 2006, but he gets a free pass in 2008, as no credible Democrat filed. Full Article...
November 14, 2007
SHILLS, PROXIES SET TO DO BATTLE IN PRIMARY
There are shills, proxies, and stalking horses. And, in the bizarre and Byzantine world of Chicago and Cook County politics, they proliferate and are plentiful. Shills are put up by Candidate A to drain votes from Candidate B. Proxies are put up by Powerhouse A to beat Candidate B who is backed by Powerhouse B. And stalking horses are candidates used by Candidate A to further Candidate A's ambitions. In the Republican presidential primary race in Illinois, all the potential 2010 governor's candidates have a horse. In the Republican contest for State's Attorney, where Tony Peraica, who got 46% against Todd Stroger for county board president in 2006, is running, county GOP chairman Liz Gorman filed a proxy against Peraica in the primary. Both Gorman and Peraica aspire to run against Stroger in 2010; Peraica wants to use his 2008 campaign to maintain his visibility, and Gorman wants to undermine (and possibly defeat) him. In the 42nd Ward, a proxy war between Peraica and Gorman is underway for Republican committeeman. In the 32nd Ward, where the Rostenkowski/Gabinski Machine has collapsed, Republicans are squabbling about who is the "pawn" of the Democrats. In the 43rd Ward, Alderman Vi Daley wants her protégé and chief-of-staff to be Democratic committeeman, and succeed her in 2011. And in the 26th House District, proxies of IL Senate President Emil Jones and House Speaker Mike Madigan are locked in mortal combat: it's Will Burns (Jones) taking on State Rep. Elga Jefferies (Madigan) in this black-majority district. Burns is favored. Full Article...
November 7, 2007
IT'S POLITCAL-AS-USUAL IN 2008 PRIMARY RACES
The upcoming Feb. 5, 2008 primary may be an abnormal, or subnormal, or paranormal event -- or perhaps all three. It's abnormal because it's so early, right after the holidays, and at the end of the football playoffs. It's subnormal because voters will not be focused, and will be unaware of who's running. And it's paranormal because the only way an ordinary candidate can connect with voters will be psychically. Here's the early outlook: For State's Attorney, Howard Brookins is favored; he will get 90% of the black vote, 10% of the white vote, for an overall 38%. Brookins, who is black, will run as a "reformer," as will Larry Suffredin. Tom Allen and Suffredin will divide the white vote; with Bob Milan and Anita Alvarez also running, no white will get 70% of the white vote, so Brookins will win. For Recorder, Gene Moore, who is black, has support from white committeemen, while some black committeemen are backing Ed Smith. The MWRD is the usual zoo. In the 41st Ward, Ralph Capparelli faces 3 foes. In the 50th Ward, the yarmulke has hit the fan, with Ira Silverstein challenging Berny Stone. In the 42nd Ward, Burt Natarus has faded away. In the 32nd Ward, it's the end of the Rostenkowski-Gabinski Machine. And in the 43rd Ward, Michele Smith, an '07 aldermanic loser, is on the comeback trail. Full Article...
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