November 7, 2007
IT'S POLITCAL-AS-USUAL IN 2008 PRIMARY RACES

ANALYSIS & OPINION BY RUSS STEWART

The Feb. 5, 2008, primary will be a confusing amalgamation of the abnormal, the subnormal and the paranormal.

The abnormality will be the early primary, which is helpful only to presidential candidates. All others will get no attention during the Christmas holidays, minimal attention during the January football playoffs, and, just as the primary arrives, they'll be eclipsed by a media avalanche heaped on the presidential contest, due to the 18 other primaries also set for Feb. 5. Illinois primaries used to be held in the third week in March.

The subnormality will be the lack of voter focus. Ordinarily, candidates must educate, motivate and then turn out their voter base. By Feb. 5, voters will surely be aware of the primary, but they will be almost totally unaware of who is running for down-ballot offices.

And the paranormality will be the inability of ordinary candidates to penetrate the clutter of bad weather, sports, holiday hangover and the plethora of presidential campaign stories. It would take psychic powers to break into voters' consciousness.

Political discontent and turmoil may be rife throughout the country, but it's still politics as usual in Chicago and Cook County. With the close of filing on Nov. 5, here's how key county and local races shape up:

State's Attorney: The Democrats did not slate a candidate to succeed the retiring Dick Devine, and six contenders filed. Since each ward and township Democratic organization can endorse whom they desire, the conventional wisdom is that manpower will trump money, namely, that precinct captains will deliver a big vote for their candidates. But January isn't March, so don't expect a lot of door-to-door activity in freezing conditions.

The variables in the contest are race, reform, geography and money. The candidates are Aldermen Howard Brookins (21st) and Tom Allen (38th), county Commissioner Larry Suffredin of Evanston, first assistant state's attorney Bob Milan of Glenview, Devine's second in command, second assistant state's attorney Anita Alvarez of River Forest, the number three prosecutor in the office, and former state official Tommy Brewer of Evanston.

Brookins and Brewer are black, and Brookins is backed by almost all black committeemen. Brookins and Suffredin will portray themselves as reformers, pledging to use the office to investigate city and county corruption. Milan and Alvarez will stress their experience and crime-fighting record. Allen's base is on the Northwest Side, and he is strong with the unions, who will fund him heavily. Suffredin's base is among Lakefront and North Shore liberals.

The early outlook: With Barack Obama on the presidential ballot, black turnout will be huge, benefiting Brookins. Suffredin helps Allen by drawing white liberal votes that otherwise would go to Brookins, but he also hurts him by drawing white independent-minded (or anti-Daley) voters in the ethnic wards and suburbs that otherwise would back Allen over Brookins. The alderman has a serious packaging problem: He's not as "experienced" as Milan or Alvarez, and as an alderman generally supportive of Mayor Rich Daley, he can't suddenly become a champion of "reform." He's a candidate in search of a message, and time is running short.

The early outlook: Blacks will comprise 40 percent of the countywide turnout, and Brookins will get 90 percent of the black vote and 10 percent of the white vote. That gives him roughly 38 percent of the total cast. To win, Suffredin or Allen would have to get 70 percent of the white vote. That won't happen.

Recorder: Incumbent Gene Moore was reslated, and he is opposed in the primary by Alderman Ed Smith (28th) and John Kelly. Moore and Smith are black, and the obscure Kelly is hoping that they fractionalize the black vote while his sweet-sounding Irish surname carries the white vote. It won't happen. Moore is the endorsed party candidate, and white committeemen will back him.

Metropolitan Water Reclamation District: Obscurity breeds notoriety, and water district primaries for three commissioners, elected to 6-year terms, are notoriously unpredictable. Gender, race and ballot position easily outweigh qualifications. Voters don't know who's running, and they don't care. This year there are 11 candidates, including six men and five women, four blacks, three Greek-surnamed whites and two Irish-surnamed women. The party slate includes incumbents Kathy Meany and Frank Avila, and Dean Maragos. Also running is dumped incumbent Cynthia Santos, as well as four black candidates: Diane Jones (who ran for city clerk in 2007 and who is backed by black committeemen), Ronald Oliver, Marlon Rush and Derrick Stinson; also on the ballot are Kathleen O'Reilley, Matt Podgorski and Mariyana Spyropoulos. The outlook: Jones, Meany and O'Reilley are the early favorites, primarily because of their gender and surnames.

41st Ward (Far Northwest Side): As expected, incumbent Democratic Committeeman Ralph Capparelli is being challenged. Filing against him were Frank Coconate, the chairman of the Northwest Side Democratic Organization, Mary O'Connor, who owns an Edison Park restaurant and who allegedly is backed by Republican Alderman Brian Doherty, and Pat Mulligan, who was put into the race by Coconate.

The outlook: Capparelli's organization is decrepit, with fewer than a dozen precinct workers. But he did manage to accumulate 1,500 petition signatures. O'Connor can win if she spends money on direct mail attacking Capparelli as ineffectual, and if Coconate amasses 25 percent of the vote. But it's hard to imagine Capparelli getting less than 40 percent of the votes cast. He's favored.

50th Ward (West Rogers Park): The proverbial yarmulke has hit the proverbial fan in this ward. State Senator Ira Silverstein (D-8) is challenging venerable Alderman Berny Stone for Democratic committeeman, setting off a nasty battle for the "Jewish succession." The ward becomes less Jewish with each passing year, and Stone's ward organization becomes less potent with each passing election. But for an influx of outsiders, Stone would have lost the 2007 aldermanic election to Naisy Dolar. Stone wants to run again in 2011, as does Dolar.

Silverstein argues that Dolar will win next time unless he takes over Stone's ward organization and rebuilds it. Dolar has endorsed Silverstein, as has 2007 loser Greg Brewer. Stone roars back that Silverstein, once his protege, is a turncoat and that he wants to be committeeman so that he can make Dolar the alderman. That charge will resonate in heavily Jewish precincts such as Winston Towers, where older Jewish voters are appalled at the possibility of not having a Jewish alderman.

The outlook: To win, Silverstein must build a base among independent, non-Jewish voters and retain the support of at least 40 percent of the Jewish voters. He will do it.

42nd Ward (Gold Coast): In a ward packed full of high-rise condominiums, precinct captains are an absurdity. With a flurry of direct-mail pieces, Brendan Reilly upset longtime Alderman Burt Natarus (1971 to 2007) in February. According to sources in the ward, Natarus, as the ward's Democratic committeeman, still had about 40 workers in his organization, and they encouraged him to run again. So a deal allegedly was cut: Natarus wouldn't run in 2008 if Reilly didn't run. Reilly picked attorney John Corrigan for the spot, and they attended a meeting at which Natarus gave the captains their new marching orders. They didn't march.

Rumors were rampant that Natarus would run after all, so Reilly filed, but Natarus didn't. The outlook: Expect Reilly to stay and Corrigan to withdraw.

32nd Ward (Wicker Park, south Lakeview): They say it ain't over until it's over. In the ward that Dan Rostenkowski and Terry Gabinski built, it's over. Rostenkowski was a congressman from 1959 to 1995; Gabinski was an alderman from 1969 to 1999 and the ward's committeeman after Rostenkowski quit in 1988. In 2007 Gabinski's hand-picked successor, Ted Matlak, lost to Scott Waguespack by 122 votes. Gabinski resigned last summer, and Matlak was his replacement.

But Matlak didn't file to run for the post. State Representative John Fritchey (D-11), an independent-minded liberal who backed Waguespack, did file, as did Roger Romanelli, a member of Waguespack's organization. The outlook: Fritchey will win easily. He's eyeing a run for Illinois attorney general in 2010.

43rd Ward (Lincoln Park): It's never too early to start. Last April Michele Smith lost to incumbent Alderman Vi Daley by 549 votes, having spent $400,000. Daley will retire in 2011, and her ally, Peg Roth, is retiring as committeeman in 2008. Smith is running for Roth's job, as is Tim Egan, who got 12 percent of the vote for alderman in 2007, and Charles Eastwood. The outlook: Smith will win in 2008 and 2011.