October 17, 2007
AN "INCONVENIENT TRUTH": CHICAGOANS LOVE DALEY

ANALYSIS & OPINION BY RUSS STEWART

Al Gore is to receive a Nobel Prize for his crusade against global warming, which was the focus of his documentary movie, "An Inconvenient Truth."

Back in Chicago, where Rich Daley has been mayor for 18-plus years, where corruption flourishes, and where property taxes are about to surge, there is also an "inconvenient truth," namely, that Chicagoans love their mayor. Polar ice caps may be melting, and Al Sharpton may be invading Chicago, but there has been no cooling of popular affection for Daley. Not yet.

There are times -- indeed, many times -- when the mayor appears to be frazzled, fumbling, bumbling and nearly incomprehensible, but those shortcomings are offset by the urban "livability index" theory. In short, when crime rates are declining, education performance is increasing, taxes are tolerable, city services are acceptable, property values are stable or growing, the economy is robust, and the city is a visually pleasant place to live, it ranks high on livability. That's the current situation in Chicago, and the mayor takes credit.

Daley's resounding 2007 re-election was a referendum on his tenure. It may be asserted that adulation for the mayor is less than universal. After all, he got 318,578 votes, or 71.1 percent of the total cast, in a turnout of 447,571. Chicago has 1,416,101 registered voters and a population of 2,896,016. That means he was supported by just 31.6 percent of the total voter pool.

The explanation: The "Affection Factor," combined with the "Tolerance Factor," outweighed the "Fatigue Factor." Those who voted for Daley genuinely like him and expect and tolerate a politicized, slightly corrupt government. Those fatigued, who wanted change, didn't bother to vote. If Daley expects to win re-election in 2011, he must ensure that tolerance does not blossom into fatigue.

Daley understands two key political rules. First, keep your base satisfied. In Daley's case, that includes whites and Hispanics. And second, don't irritate, antagonize or motivate your opposition. In Daley's case, that includes blacks and white liberals. By keeping Chicago high on the livability index, he accomplishes both. Here's how:

Crime: Nationwide, gun violence is on the upswing and violent crime is up by 2 percent, but in Chicago, major crime has declined in each of the past 15 years and in 2006 murder was down by 2 percent and all crime was down by 6 percent. Criminal sexual assault, aggravated battery, property crime, motor vehicle theft and park crime have all decreased.

To be sure, there are issues regarding police abuse and police corruption. Sharpton and his National Action Network are trying to establish a presence in Chicago. Sharpton claims the police are "anti-us," meaning anti-black, and that Daley is "getting a pass" on police brutality. Wallace Davis, a former alderman, said that Daley is "ignorant and out of control." Jesse Jackson, not to be eclipsed by Sharpton, spent a night in the Ickes public housing project and proclaimed that the city police are "Gestapo-like" and that "people are being violated."

In addition, the civil suits surrounding the alleged torture of suspects, mostly black, by Area 2 police commander Jon Burge in the early 1980s, when Daley was state's attorney, will cost the city about $50 million in attorneys' fees and settlement costs.

But the public's reaction has been a gigantic yawn. So what? Like the acronym NIMBY (Not In My Back Yard), which relates to waste dumping or airport expansion, the operative acronym in Chicago is KCOOMN (Keep Criminals Out Of My Neighborhood). Drug dealing, prostitution and gang violence exist in any big city, but in Chicago they've been isolated to lower class, minority neighborhoods. That makes most of the rest of the city relatively crime free.

Education: Just two decades ago, few self-respecting (and affluent) white parents would allow their child to go to a city public school. That's changed somewhat. School busing ceased, and the quality of education, at least in schools in predominantly white areas of the city, has improved.

City and state ACT scores have risen. State SAT scores top the national average. City students' math, reading and science achievement scores have gained. The dropout rate is down to 10.4 percent. The retention rate, meaning students who must repeat a grade, is down to about 27 percent. More public high school graduates (48 percent) are going to college. But only 6.5 percent of high school freshmen finish college, and well over half of non-white public school students never attend college.

Private and parochial schools still attract many of the best and the brightest, but Chicago's schools are no longer a vast wasteland. Daley's "Renaissance 2010" plan seeks to create 100 new schools, including charter schools, of which 55 have opened.

Economy: The good news is that Chicago ain't Detroit, which is still reeling from the collapse of its auto manufacturing base. The Loop's mixture of Fortune 500, high-tech and service industry companies ensures constant construction, which keeps the trades busy and the union hierarchy happy.

But bad times are looming. According to the state Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability, 2008 will bring rising unemployment (which is now 5.4 percent), falling corporate profits, plunging home sales and start-ups, and sluggish holiday sales. Receipts from both sales and corporate income taxes will dwindle.

Daley's 2007 city budget was $5.7 billion, up from $5.2 billion in 2006. It didn't include any new taxes or fees, depending on natural revenue growth. Not so in 2008, with a projected $193 million in tax hikes, including $108 million in property taxes (costing the average Chicago property owner $50 to $200), $40.8 million in water fees, and increases in taxes on bottled water, liquor, phones, parking and restaurant meals.

In the past, Daley pushed privatization as a cost cutter, selling off the Chicago Skyway. He would dearly love to sell Midway Airport, but with Chicago still contending for the 2016 Olympics, at a cost in excess of $2 billion in public and private funds, Daley must keep the unions content. Also, the city's 153 tax increment financing districts are costing $400 million annually in lost taxes.

The collapse of the housing market has serious implications. With fewer home sales, the city's receipts from revenue stamps ($7.50 per $1,000) will diminish, and the decline in teardowns and new home construction will mean slower growth in property tax revenues. Demographically, it will mean fewer whites moving into the Loop and Lakefront. It also will mean fewer Hispanics moving to the Northwest and Southwest Sides, and fewer blacks moving out of Chicago.

The CTA's $158 million deficit and lack of state funding have created several "doomsday" scenarios, with 82 bus routes to be cut by Jan. 6, 2,400 employees fired, and fares increased to $3.25. Chicago is supposed to be the "city that works," and Democrats control all the levers of state, county and city government. If doomsday arrives, Daley can't dodge the blame.

City services: Chicagoans certainly expect to pay for their housekeeping -- sanitation, street maintenance and beautification -- but they resent paying for something that they don't get. The Hired Truck Program scandal has resulted in 49 indictments and 45 convictions. People paid to work did not, and others stole city property. City hiring has been rigged. Building inspectors have been bribed. The towing program benefits Daley's buddies. Minority contracting is a joke. Sidewalk repaving is excessive. City legal fees are exploding.

But Chicagoans yawn. That's standard operating procedure. The "Tolerance Factor" won't diminish until some top Daley operative gets indicted and rats out on the mayor. If Daley gets indicted before his term ends, the city will be up for grabs.

Esthetics: In sight is in mind. Daley believes that small-ticket items such as trees, flower boxes, street repairs, antique lighting, park upgrades and wrought iron fences make people feel good about themselves and their community and that big-ticket items such as the Olympics, political conventions, Millennium Park, "Taste of Chicago" and sports events make people feel good about being a Chicagoan.

Daley, at age 65, is a political "lifer" and an eternal optimist. For him, there is no career, no life, beyond City Hall. He believes Chicago is a great city and that it is his destiny to be mayor. So, too, did his father, Richard J. Daley, who was mayor from 1955 until his death in 1976 at age 74. The elder Daley faced periodic crises during his tenure, and he raised taxes occasionally.

Chicago's "inconvenient truth" is that Chicagoans, at least those who vote, treasure comfort and continuity. As long as the city's livability index transcends corruption, Daley will remain mayor.